UK Government knew the risks and did nothing

[Cam77]

Between July 2016 and January 2020 the British government spent three and a half years talking about and furiously negotiating Brexit - three and half years trying to solve a crisis completely of its own making.

In December 2020 in the weeks before the election, Boris Johnson, a chief architect of Brexit, did speak a couple of times about the NHS, a few vague promises about future nurses (who they had just months before gleefully blocked a pay rise for) and future hospitals.

In October 2016, three months after the Brexit vote, the UK government ran a national pandemic flu exercise, codenamed Exercise Cygnus. The report of its findings was not made publicly available, but the then chief medical officer Sally Davies commented on what she had learnt from it in December 2016.

“We’ve just had in the UK a three-day exercise on flu, on a pandemic that killed a lot of people,” she told the World Innovation Summit for Health at the time. “It became clear that we could not cope with the excess bodies,” Davies said. One conclusion was that Britain, as Davies put it, faced the threat of “inadequate ventilation” in a future pandemic.

Despite the severe failings exposed by Exercise Cygnus, the government’s planning for a future pandemic did not change after December 2016 – at least not formally. The government’s roadmap for how to respond to a coronavirus-like pandemic has long been available online, and the three key documents – the 70-page “Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy”, 78-page “Health and Social Care Influenza Pandemic Preparedness and Response” and 88-page “Pandemic Influenza Response Plan” – were published in 2011, 2012 and 2014 respectively. These plans were tested and failed, yet these documents were not rewritten or revised.

They share a glaring shortcoming: not one of them mentions ventilators, which are now in such high demand that Matthew Hancock, the Health Secretary, told British manufacturers on 14 March, “If you produce a ventilator, we will buy it. No number [you produce] is too high.”
www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic

The government were late to lockdown - should have done it at least a week earlier

Look back through the boards here and see how many people were laughing at anyone who was taking this seriously in the first half of March, saying it was all media hysteria and a massive overreaction. One week before we went into lockdown there were 'only' 55 deaths across the whole country. And the police don't have the manpower to force everyone to stay in their homes against their will - look at how they're struggling to fully enforce the lockdown even now, when it's obvious that this is a big deal and most people are willingly complying. It's not as simple as saying "the government should have locked down earlier" if people weren't willing to go along with it at the time.

The fact that Boris and co embraced herd immunity has cost many many people their lives.

The fact the Tories decided to decimate the NHS with its cuts and austerity measures has cost many many lives.

They can talk about getting rid of isolated sunbathers in parks and make us get angry about people meeting on park benches, but we should all be really angry with this govt.

Really fucking angry. I do not buy that no govt could have been ready. Look at New Zealand for example.

This government's actions has meant that many more people have died than needed to have. (and I don't give a flying fuck that Boris waved at the ICU nurses on the way out of Intensive care, I care that nearly 1000 people died on that day, most of whom were infected when Boris was convincing us all that herd immunity was the way forward).

Oh, how I wish people would stop pointing to Germany as best case. Not that I disagree, it is. However, if you all want that system, then you have to privatise the NHS. The German system is working so well because they have locally controlled health systems purchasing from private health providers, funded by a mix of private and social health insurance. Stop and think. You can't moan about our systems failings and point to a better system, but then not want to countenance changes to our system.

Save your oxygen.

Most people are basically sheep, if Johnson had made the case for lockdown earlier, instead of advising people it's ok to shake hands of CV patients... the vast majority would have followed, just as they did in NZ.

But yes the scandal over PPE is absolutely shocking, Hancock should resign, his statement yesterday blaming staff for over using PPE is a fucking disgrace, 19 NHS have died, he is your typically self centred Tory xxxx

The fact that Boris and co embraced herd immunity has cost many many people their lives.

Astonishing to learn that Boris controls the neighbouring governments of Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands, all of which have higher deaths per capita than we do.

Did he decimate their national health services too? He must have become Western European Emperor while no one was looking.

Either that, or the virus is battering most countries in a similar way, no matter what preparations are made.

New Zealand has about 6% of our population density and is not a global transit hub, so that’s a fairly useless comparison.

From the op:
the then chief medical officer Sally Davies commented...
in December 2016.

“We’ve just had in the UK a three-day exercise on flu, on a pandemic that killed a lot of people,” she told the World Innovation Summit for Health at the time"... "One conclusion was that Britain, as Davies put it, faced the threat of “inadequate ventilation” in a future pandemic.

"inadequate ventilation"

The Daily Express reported on the Summit in 2016:

"Professor Dame Sally Davies said a three day exercise- dubbed Operation Cygnus - showed hospitals were not ready to deal with any severe outbreak and the NHS would struggle to identify diseases before they started to spread."

"Speaking at the World Innovation Summit for Health, she said it was clear the UK “could not cope” with the extra bodies."

"The world was very vulnerable, said Dame Sally, who rated its current ability to deal with a serious pandemic at just three out of ten."

"Referring to the outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome in South Korea last year, she said, initially patients were not isolated effectively because those treating them didn’t know they were dealing with a new disease."

"There was overcrowding in emergency rooms, family and friends being allowed in, and not enough ventilation, she told health leaders."

Surely, if you were reading that last sentence in 2016, "not enough ventilation" could easily be taken to mean not enough ventilation to the room because of overcrowding? How has this come to mean not enough ventilators?

Perhaps the Express journalist misunderstood what was said in 2016 but you can see why today's journalists are 'cherry-picking' quotes and editing them down to two words.

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/747672/flu-pandemic-nhs-warning-world-innovation-summit-for-health

We’re not all in this together though. People with a huge garden and no prior money worries are probably coping far better than those living in a 2 bed room terrace or high rise flat.

@Baaaahhhhh

That can't be true because 30 years ago, under a far more centralised NHS than now, we had double the number of beds, more nurses and doctors per capita than now.
Afraid its down to spending or rather lack of it, we spend less on health by approx 2% p.a. year on year and that adds up.

PPE should have been ordered in January not in mid March which is when our Govt suddenly realised we didn't have enough, prior to that they didn't take CV seriously enough, hence johnson getting CV, the only world leader to do so........

The responses on this thread are really indicative of the way this virus has affected different groups within the uk.

Those in customer facing roles with little option to work from home, see and feel the effects and run a higher risk of infection.
The more you can empathise with this group the angrier you will be with the government.

I would hazard a guess that many of the Boris and government supporters are not customer facing front line workers surviving in a high rise.

This government have been winging this from day one and if you cannot see it, it's simply because you're looking away.

The German system is working so well because they have locally controlled health systems purchasing from private health providers, funded by a mix of private and social health insurance. Stop and think. You can't moan about our systems failings and point to a better system, but then not want to countenance changes to our system.

Who says that we don't want changes to our system? I for one consistently say that we need to have a proper examination of the NHS to work out want we want and what we are prepared to pay for. If we examined other models and decided that the German or Norwegian or New Zealand model is one which could work for us, then fine, it's a properly considered decision.

What I and many others object to is the privatisation by stealth towards an American model. A model which leaves substantial numbers of their citizens without access to decent health care.

Oh, how I wish people would stop pointing to Germany as best case. Not that I disagree, it is. However, if you all want that system, then you have to privatise the NHS.

I was wondering how long it was going to take someone to bring this up. I get sick to death of people insisting that over their dead body will it ever reform and fully privatise, and then in the next breath pulling it to shreds because it can't cope as well as other countrys' systems.

Our NHS was never designed to cope with the demands on it that it has now, in 2020, even before Covid 19. Hopefully once this has been brought under control and a public enquiry is had, people will start to accept that we can either have a perfect health system or a free at the point of service National Health System.

Also getting tired of hearing people compare the UK to NZ were Covid 19 is concerned. It's been pointed out that they have 6% of the population of the UK but they have a greater land mass to spread those measly 5 million people out in. Also they have no land borders, it's a pretty inaccessible and seldom visited country compared to most, it's immigration rules are insanely stringent compared to ours and it is not a big international travel hub. plus they didn't get their first cases of Covid until quite some time after we and most of Europe did, so they had a good deal more time to watch and learn from others.

Yes Trexical when BJ said he was going about shaking the hands of CV patients, i nearly fell of my chair! my mum was a nurse and taught her kids the basics of infection control and the dangers of viruses that cannot be treated as easily as bacterial infections can be with AB's.

Johnson treated this pandemic with abandon in Jan/feb, that his advisors also went along with his cavalier attitude is even more shocking, if nothing else, i hope his recent illness has taught him not be such an idiot.

www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF

The Government followed scientific advice. That doesn’t mean the scientist were infallible.

“ Until March 12, the risk level, set by the government’s top medical advisers on the recommendation of the scientists, remained at “moderate,” suggesting only the possibility of a wider outbreak.”

Our NHS was never designed to cope with the demands on it that it has now

Quite incredible that some people cannot grasp that if govts continually spend less on healthcare than our european neighbours then we end up with less beds, equipment and staff, we will then reach saturation point far earlier.

The NHS has done really well because a lot of other healthcare has been put on hold, the public are also using it far less out of fear of getting CV-19, personally i know someone with a suspected broken leg (tree surgeon) who will not go to AE because of this.

How we will ever catch up on the backlog of tests, treatments and elective surgeries i do not know i suspect many will die waiting.

Why were experts castigated and considered irrelevant for brexit but back in fashion for this pandemic?

Does no one apply critical thought anymore or is it selective amnesia?

Yes Trexical when BJ said he was going about shaking the hands of CV patients, i nearly fell of my chair!

Isn't that a misinterpretation of what he actually said though - he shook hands with people at a hospital and he thought there were some coronavirus patients there - i.e. somewhere in the building but he didn't meet them himself.

Johnson treated this pandemic with abandon in Jan/feb, that his advisors also went along with his cavalier attitude is even more shocking

And yet we've seen footage of Angela Merkel and the Dutch PM laughing and joking as they shake hands (or attempt to shake hands) in March.

And how do you excuse the SNP and the Labour Party agreeing the Government's course of action at cross party talks on the 12th March?

I’m fully with Annanimmoty on this one.

People are getting angry at the wrong people. God forbid any slags off the Tory government

If in doubt " whataboutery " never fails to derail eh
Clavinova?
It was very clear what Boris said.. he openly played down covid likening it, on the record, to no worse than flu.
I tell you what, try not to look outside of the UK for comparisons that make you feel better and ask yourself honestly if you think this crisis with cases reported in the UK as early as January has been handled in the best possible way?

That if we had stopped flights, cancelled sporting events, ramped up testing, provided adequate ppe to bus drivers and nhs staff that perhaps 100 hell maybe 1000 + more people might be enjoying the sunshine today instead of being buried in mass graves?

Can i point out that in spite of everything we are still not actually "locked down" anywhere near as tightly as we could be. The construction industry has largely carried on regardless (a few sites closed down voluntarily but are now opening again as the management has obviously twigged that they can get away with it).
2 meter distancing cannot be strictly adhered to on construction sites. And its not being.
I was on a big site all last week (I'm a consultant in a related field). Workers are wearing their own facemasks (of varying quality) and there's some alcohol gel at the site entrance. That's it.
So we have hundreds of people moving in and out of major cities (some on public transport) effectily gathering all day in enclosed spaces potentially picking up and spreading the virus very efficiently up and down the country. Gently stoking the epidemic.
And the government sanctions this. And I'm sure there are other examples of non essential industries being allowed to carry on regardless.

Why has the government not stopped this!?

Its far worse than any risk posed by cyclists, joggers or any of the other social distancing fails people get worked up about on here.

Who knows when the peak will be but it could definitely have been sooner and smaller if a proper lockdown like in Italy and Spain had been implemented.

The UK government has made a huge mess of this and threw away the opportunity to learn from the experiences of other nations.
I don't understand how anyone can argue with that.

It was very clear what Boris said.. he openly played down covid likening it, on the record, to no worse than flu.

An utter lie. Care to produce a verified source for this suppose ‘record’?

Trexical
I tell you what, try not to look outside of the UK for comparisons that make you feel better and ask yourself honestly if you think this crisis with cases reported in the UK as early as January has been handled in the best possible way?

That if we had stopped flights...

Just looked outside the UK on the other thread;

31st January:

"The Trump administration’s decision to ban most foreign nationals who had been to China in the last two weeks from traveling to the United States amid an accelerating outbreak of a novel coronavirus there was preceded by calls for similar policies from conservative lawmakers and far-right supporters of the president. Public health experts, however, warn that the move could do more harm than good."

"Beyond Capitol Hill, Mike Cernovich, a prominent conspiracy theorist and early Trump supporter, had agitated on Twitter for a Chinese travel ban, as has Michael Savage, another conspiracy theorist and a radio host with white nationalist beliefs.“QUARANTINE! STOP TRAVELERS FROM CHINA NOW!” he said on Twitter last week."

"The World Health Organization, which declared the outbreak a global health emergency this week, has recommended against any travel or trade restrictions in response to the outbreak."

“Although travel restrictions may intuitively seem like the right thing to do, this is not something that WHO usually recommends,” said Tarik Jašarević, a WHO spokesperson.“This is because of the social disruption they cause and the intensive use of resources required,” he added."

www.statnews.com/2020/01/31/as-far-right-calls-for-china-travel-ban-health-experts-warn-coronavirus-response-would-suffer/

cancelled sporting events

And if we had said back in February don't allow 10,000 people to visit the same mosque every week and share the same prayer mats - oh wait, we can't single out followers of a particular religion who might be putting themselves in danger - that's racist.

Clavinova I said try NOT to look outside of the UK so you quote the WHO advice which we chose to follow but you omit the WHO advice which said, "test, test,test" which we ignored.

So was the WHO advice like pick and mix ? We just choose the bits that suit us and ignore the rest?

My belief (not proven as I cannot read the mind of ministers) is that we did not ban flights because of WHO advice but because of the potential negative impact on the economy, just as we have not stopped all non essential construction in this so called current lock down..why is that I wonder or are you going to pull out a WHO quote supporting that decision too?