To wonder how they will record the deaths caused by the pandemic but not by the virus?

[KittyRainbow]

That's it really. I've been thinking about all of the deaths that will be indirectly caused by the measures taken to prevent the spread, or by hospitals/GPs being unable to see people.

The elderly or isolated people who did alone in their homes and nobody notices.
The women murdered by their partners
Suicides
People needing hospital care that isn't available.

How will these be counted? Or will they be brushed under the carpet? Will we ever actually know the full impact of the pandemic on those without the virus?

They'll be counted as normal of course. As suicides, murders.They won't just ignore them because they're not Covid-19 deaths. Why do you think they would?

Why be brushed under the carpet?

They aren’t a dirty secret or anything

What a cheery thread, just what we need right now.

Oh of course they will be recorded. That's not what I meant.

I suppose I'm just interested in how deaths linked to (for eg) complete isolation during lockdown will be measured.

Equally how they will record people people who died with Covid-19 but were going to die anyway.

I'm horribly bored and these are the kinds of rabbit holes my mind goes down. How will we actually measure the impact of the virus where the virus itself isnt the cause. Rather measures introduced to combat the virus?

I'm sure this will all be analysed and looked at in great detail for many years to come. There is a lot to be learnt from this.

I think over the next 20 years or so this will be poured over by historians and issues such as that looked at. I agree it is a concern and one I hope that is being taken into account now. Another is the longer term ill health from lack of exercise sunshine etc.

I thought of this too last week when I had to call 999 for an ambulance for one of my service users. I was on hold for 20 minutes, on the 999 line, before I could speak to anyone. I drove home thinking that people are going to die who would have ordinarily survived due to this virus and I still wonder if they will record this in order to improve responses in case there are similar events in the future.

Equally how they will record people people who died with Covid-19 but were going to die anyway.

They'll record the cause of death. As they always do, regardless of how long their life expectancy was otherwise. If a terminal cancer patient dies due to a car crash, they record the actual cause of death.

As for the deaths indirectly caused by covid-19, they'll be recorded as normal and then we will estimate how many there were retroactively by comparing the normal/expected death rate to the one from duration of the coronavirus crisis, after subtracting the coronavirus deaths.

People would die of things other than CV if it was left to run rampant as well though, that's the sad thing. At least with this situation there is some level of control. Losing family members, being petrified to go out but having to as bills need paying and no state support (as there is no with furlough etc), the health service not just being hard to access but likely collapsed etc, the list goes on. I am not minimising it, I have a DB who has had his support worker etc taken away and is struggling, and my friend worked for DV services and is working 12-18 hour days. Not being naieve or whatever, but there is no scenario where people come out unscathed, unfortunately.

The elderly or isolated people who did alone in their homes and nobody notices.
The women murdered by their partners
Suicides
People needing hospital care that isn't available

Also, these sadly happen all of the time and are hardly ever acknowledged by the press to spread awareness etc; but coverage has been pretty extensive these past few weeks. Heartbreaking that anything has happened of course, but it doesn't seem it's being swept under the carpet.

Is there a reason you've put this in aibu (it isn't ever unreasonable to "wonder" about something) and not the coronavirus topic?

I’m particularly interested in what will be the outcomes for cancer patients who have had their treatment altered or delayed because of the virus. And potential cancers that aren’t getting investigated. I hope all that is tracked and recorded.

I doubt if it will be tracked or recorded in any way.

It will probably be compared with the numbers from before the lockdown. A couple weeks ago I saw in the headlines that there was a 40% increase in domestic violence in a city in my country since the start of social distancing, etc. It can probably be attributed to the factors you mention. The same can be done with suicides, deaths from treatable diseases, etc.

Yes I suppose we will see if there is sudden increase in suicides etc. But other things will be more under the radar which are still concerning.

I am also interested in the other treatable diseases issue. It recently took us 6 days to get AB for one of my DC, who has a nasty UTI. 48hr of that was getting to see a Dr then 4 days to get hold of AB's which involved visiting 5 different pharmacies. All of whom said they are experiencing shortages of general AB's and AD's.

I myself was prescribed a large no of sleeping tablets over the phone because our surgery is not seeing patients at the moment (DC was sent to minor injuries for UTI).

I need them because I get stress induced insomnia, which is well recorded. But they certainly just issued me with a large enough no of pills to commit suicide if that were my intention - based on a 2 minute phone call.

I also know someone who has a suspicious lump and can't bee seen by a GP. She's been told to go to A&E. She says she'll wait. Chances are she will be fine. But there has to be a number who won't be.

Likewise children whose parents are afraid to take them into hospital in case they are not ill enough...

Domestic abuse deaths should still be recorded as such then the analysis can show that they will surely go up during this?

I have also wondered this, op. There seems to be vast differences between the way different countries are recording this, which means it is more difficult to get a true picture of the actual fatality rate. Some countries are noting the difference between those who died with the disease (eg a terminal cancer patient who happened to have been infected before they died) and those who died of the disease, where it was covid 19 that actually killed them. But some countries don't seem to be, and are attributing all deaths to C19, even where the death was actually caused by something else. It looks like it might be data from countries like Sweden that is the most valuable, as they seem to be recording every detail, including all pre existing conditions, and clearly stating whether the person was expected to die of other causes in the near future. But for now, we just don't seem to have that detail and its difficult for governments to make decisions based on what are basically assumptions.

And as you say, there are other deaths that will be directly attributable to lockdown, and others which will be caused by the economic fallout of lockdown that is starting to hit us now, and which is likely to last many years (how on earth will we pay benefits when the economy has been crashed). It's difficult to see how these can be recorded as c19 deaths, but they will certainly have been caused by it.

I read a good article on BBC news website about the statistics and recording differences, and how we are now trying to distinguish between different types of fatality, including whether the person with c19 was expected to have died of one of their other conditions anyway. Like the 18 year old widely reported as the youngest c19 death at the time - the hospital released a statement the next day saying he actually died because of his serious underlying health condition, but happened to have tested positive for c19 the day before he died. I think its vital that we can get accurate statistics about all the different types of deaths in order that we can work out the best response. Something that Iceland seems to be doing really well. Mass testing combined with targetted isolation keeps the economy going whilst isolating the vulnerable).

It's a problem that we won't really have the data from which we could have determined the best approach until it's too late.

There aren't any extra deaths. Week 12 march 26th weekly deaths <a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/876005/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_13_2020_report.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwimoeiK1NHoAhX_ShUIHb6WD0sQFjAAegQIBBAC&usg=AOvVaw0CRBZzh6xfDP4g8eSGHEEc" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/876005/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_13_2020_report.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwimoeiK1NHoAhX_ShUIHb6WD0sQFjAAegQIBBAC&usg=AOvVaw0CRBZzh6xfDP4g8eSGHEEc

The increase in home based deaths will be offset with the decrease in motor deaths because there is less traffic. And other outdoor accidental deaths (no one rock climbing or potholing or getting lost in wilderness etc etc.)

It’s too soon to say there aren’t extra deaths!

From Corona no, but from lockdown yes since that was the first week of lockdown and OP states there will be extra deaths because of lockdown.

I find it quite important to note that deaths are usually ~10,000 a week. Noting that covid figures are still at 3,000 after a koth or so means there aren't that many yet. The problem actually is that there are not enough resources to treat all the people getting the same thing rather than dying of the multitude of other things they would normally have died of.

But they certainly just issued me with a large enough no of pills to commit suicide if that were my intention - based on a 2 minute phone call.

And your point is?

If people want to commit suicide it's easy enough to do it with over the counter medicines. Or to just throw yourself off the nearest tall building.

I think the point about the reduction in road traffic deaths and other ‘outdoor’ deaths is compelling.

Of course these are uncharted waters. But governments worldwide would not be sacrificing the economy and putting countries on lockdown if overall available evidence did not pretty strongly suggest that this will cost the least in terms of lives and money. There is a terrible toll of both to pay whatever we do now - there is no denying that. Any course of action or inaction leads to many deaths and huge financial loss. But the consensus now is that lockdown is the least painful option, although it is indeed terribly painful and will cost lives as well. We are living through something truly catastrophic.

There aren't any extra deaths. Week 12 march 26th weekly deaths

I googled the title of that report and found one for the following week, which I think is saying there are now excess deaths in England. You can see the black line in the graph clearly turning upwards.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877621/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_14_2020_report.pdf

So it looks like we can get accurate ideas of Coronavirus impact by adding up those reports. Those who would have died anyway won't be counted, but those who were indirectly killed will.