To think I’ve had COVID 19, and it’s been here a while?

[VivienScott]

After Xmas I came down with what I thought was a terrible cold. Dry persistent cough, terrible fever, worse than I’ve ever had to the point I was delirious, difficulty breathing, though not pneumonia. Saw out of hours and they check oxygen levels, chest etc, said I was ok to be home, but I was not first case they’d seen like this and there was “something really awful going round this year”. Consequently had to see GP who said he’d had to hospitalise a lot more people than normal for breathing difficulties.
It all sounds exactly like coronavirus, it really felt like something dreadful to the extent I deliberately kept myself from others more than I would with a cold. I honestly believe it was, but it’s way before it was supposed to be in Europe let alone here in UK. What do you think, AIBU to think it’s been here longer than we’re aware?

I don't believe the UK performed any better than the US.

I think that is unfair. We were in the contact tracing phase when Trump was still laughing about it and treating it like a big hoax. So our testing in the initial stage at least was more timely though still leaving a lot to be desired.

I read that article last night.. one thing that puzzled me is the virologist they cite refers to a doubling infection rate of 6 days. I thought it was around 2.5 to 3? That makes a very big difference to how quickly the outbreak spreads and therefore either (1) how early it started or (2) the proportion of the population that have already had it without noticing (bearing in mind that some test results indicate that 50% have no symptoms at all and the remaining 50% will still mostly be mild cases).

The doubling rate is a measure of how well a country is containing the virus - there's no CV standard.

I agree the government and the NHS could have been better prepared (we still waiting for adequate PPE for all staff)

But it absolutely would not have gone undetected if people had COVID-19 as the cases are not isolated as many are suggesting on here. Cases are not isolated although a minority need to be admitted to hospital the numbers are still sufficient enough even if the outbreak was somehow isolated to a small area of the country

But if the US was doing nothing then it's not going to be half the rate of other countries that were taking containment measures is it? It's going to be the same or worse.

But it absolutely would not have gone undetected if people had COVID-19 as the cases are not isolated as many are suggesting on here. Cases are not isolated although a minority need to be admitted to hospital the numbers are still sufficient enough even if the outbreak was somehow isolated to a small area of the country

Honestly, no one knows.

One theory is atomisation, that it spreads through the younger, fitter, more integrated tranche of society and then spreads into branch-like segments of society.

Even Nial Ferguson, who is now well and truly vested in the Imperial worst case scenario, is saying that some 2M people are likely to have by now had it, which I presume doesn't line up with NHS hospitalisations either.

One theory is atomisation, that it spreads through the younger, fitter, more integrated tranche of society and then spreads into branch-like segments of society.

of older, more isolated members of society

I hadn't heard of that atomisation theory but that would make a lot of sense considering some of the results coming out of countries like Iceland who have done extensive and broad testing.

Even Nial Ferguson, who is now well and truly vested in the Imperial worst case scenario, is saying that some 2M people are likely to have by now had it, which I presume doesn't line up with NHS hospitalisations either

As they are only testing the really sick then the figures are going to be higher.

Could the death rate be so much lower if everyone was tested

I know through Dd a few people who have been told they could have it so go home and self isolate.
No test so doesn’t appear on the statistics.

Maybe it isn’t as deadly as flu but does affect not just the elderly and infirm

Atm as a country we are almost committing financial suicide even though we don’t know what exactly we are up against.

Until everyone is tested when they get ill and everyone is tested for antibodies then we won’t know what exactly we are fighting

I probably read it in New Science.

Take a look at Table 2 on these links. Look how much the RSV stats increased in December. They didn’t define RSV as anything specific?

www.gov.uk/government/publications/respiratory-infections-laboratory-reports-2019/reports-of-respiratory-infections-made-to-phe-from-phe-and-nhs-laboratories-in-england-and-wales-weeks-1-to-4-2019#table-2-respiratory-viral-detections-by-any-method-culture-direct-immunofluorescence-pcr-four-fold-rise-in-paired-sera-single-high-serology-titre-genomic-electron-microscopy-other-method-other-method-unknown-by-week-of-report

www.gov.uk/government/publications/respiratory-infections-laboratory-reports-2019/reports-of-respiratory-infections-made-to-phe-from-phe-and-nhs-laboratories-in-england-and-wales-weeks-49-2019-to-02-2020-to-48-2019#table-2-respiratory-viral-detections-by-any-method-culture-direct-immunofluorescence-pcr-four-fold-rise-in-paired-sera-single-high-serology-titre-genomic-electron-microscopy-other-method-other-method-unknown-by-week-of-report

Isn't RSV respiratory syncytial virus? It's the virus that causes bronchiolitis. To be honest, I have nowhere near the level of knowledge to interpret data like that. It looks highly specific.

It’s very easy to see why is Decembers we’re COVID cases they were mistaken for RSV...

www.cdc.gov/rsv/clinical/index.html

But aren't these lab confirmed infections?

MIL caught something last school holidays from one of her grandkids who was staying with her - she was speaking to a pharmacist the other day who told her that it really sounded like she had had it. She had all the symptoms and was very poorly. So what, end of Feb?

So maybe the people confusing RSV for covid are those who think they had COVID-19 in December?

Sorry for the shit pic. But lol at the last two screens here... RSV is significantly higher in the same period of 2019. It does appear to be lab confirmed cases.
I was convinced I had it in December but now maybe it was RSV 🤷‍♀️

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/coronavirus-took-hold-in-uk-earlier-than-thought-data-reveals

They are bringing out these articles saying it’s been around longer each week now but still no one believes it

That article says the first death was on 28 Feb, not 5 March as previously announced. It says hospital trusts are now saying 6 people died in hospitals before the first death was announced.

There's no way we caught the first ever person to bring in COVID-19. The arrogance of thinking that is unreal!

Also, for those saying it was just a flu - how do you know? Flu isn't a notified cause of death and COVID-19 now is. People COULD have been dying of CV and it would have been put down to pneumonia or chest infection because until you know there is a new virus you don't know what you are looking for? So no one knew COVID-19 even existed (hence it took so long for it to be discovered in China) and for them to go into lockdown because everyone just thought it was a particularly nasty flu... like people have for the UK this year.

It was in China what, end of last year? There is enough international travel from China for it to have spread before we even realised it existed.

There's no way we caught the first ever person to bring in COVID-19. The arrogance of thinking that is unreal!

Well, yes. A highly infectious virus that presents asymptomatically or as cold-like symptoms in the majority arrives in the UK in the middle of winter.... and we know who brought it. I suggest quite possibly we don't.

Well if MIL caught it from the prime suspect (our niece) at the end of feb who has been poorly for the 2 weeks before. caught it from her mum (who was really sick for 3 weeks before that) and lord knows who she caught it off... that takes us back to January.

I know of someone who recently died of pneumonia. More recently those that shared the home now test positive with COVID. The original death is still recorded as pneumonia.

In December I had a really bad dry cough, high temperature and I felt absolutely exhausted. This went on for about 2 or 3 weeks and eventually it did clear up on it’s own. I’ve never had anything like it.
The only reason I know it wasn’t Coronavirus is because it was, someone close to me would have caught it from me. It did make me wonder though.