Stock market crash?

[JudesBiggestFan]

AIBU to think that we are now heading for a recession because of Coronavirus?
The stock market is in free fall today, my own industry and others are being impacted because of the decline in tourist numbers and lower production out of China, and it seems widespread uncertainty about how to contain the virus means none of this will end soon.
On top of the uncertainty around Brexit it feels very worrying.
I should stop watching g the news really because none of this is controllable but grimly fascinated about what the impact will be.

No point worrying.
Our government is having a cobra meeting today. They have finally decided it's an emergency obviously with all this.
Let's hope things look up soon. The markets will recover I'm sure.

Roaring 20s 2.0

I'm also "grimly fascinated" (great way to describe it)! I felt we were already heading towards some kind of recession, the virus has just brought it forward in my opinion.

Surely shares in manufacturers of masks, hand gel and bog rolls must be rising like fury though?

IT'S THE END OF DAYS!!

Takes the edge of the Doom of Brexit somewhat... I'd almost forgotten about the B-word this week.

We’re overdue a recession. A minor epidemic wouldn’t cause a recession, it could trigger one though if that’s what you mean. Even so, stock market drops don’t always indicate a recession - they’re an indicator of how investors are feeling. Obviously many investors are educated people who act on the belief that a recession is likely but a lot of them have no idea what they’re doing and just sell because other people are selling a.

We’re overdue a recession.
On what basis?
Obviously many investors are educated people who act on the belief that a recession is likely but a lot of them have no idea what they’re doing and just sell because other people are selling
And then there are all the computer programs buying and selling according to various parameters.

Even if coronavirus doesn't cause one, Brexit sure as hell will, so I think it's inevitable.

Sterling is bobbing along the bottom atm, I wouldn't be surprised if $1.25 became the new normal.

If factory workers, in China or elsewhere, are told not to return to work, or if they choose to stay at home to look after their families, then of course that factory will reduce or cease its output.

If the factory is making parts used in the manufacture of something else, then of course that thing will also reduce or cease its output.

"Just in time" manufacturing means that nobody holds buffer stocks of parts or materials. When the pipeline fails, everything fails.

What happens if the crews on the ships that bring a day's worth of toilet rolls to the UK, every day, get sick and stop sailing?

The money markets will recover. They just have a dose of Coronavirus right now. SARS (also a type of coronavirus) had a similar effect. It is short term, although the press is bigging it up a lot.

No point in worrying and adding to the ridiculous mass hysteria that we already have.

They will blame labour for it somehow.

@The80sweregreat
I thought the COBRA meeting was Monday?
The Government don't work weekends

I actually think the issue with the stock market will actually have a positive effect on government action because they will want to be seen to be doing something to stabilise the markets. It might even get Trumps attention.

Boris is probably meeting a Cobra not convening one.

It's been very good for day trading because it's very predictable.

I've done great this last couple of weeks on shorts - the car makers and tech' in particular were all but guaranteed to end each day down so no need to hold positions overnight and incur the interest charges.

All in all very good times for small time amateurs like me, I think.

Makes up for the pension drops but then again when that finishes tanking it will be a good time to buy more units just before the tax year end.

Hard to find much negative, really.

@TheQueef - surely you mean Boris is probably drinking a Cobra?

Pussycat, sorry! I heard ' cobra ' meeting and thought today!! Typical they can't work weekends for disasters etc. !
Monday it is then. If the virus doesn't get them by then!

We’re over due a recession because we’re on about year 10 of a 7 seven year cycle.

It could go either way imo. Without it there would be no recession looming, Coronavirus could cause one. It’s the uncertainty which gathers momentum so quickly. The markets are fragile.

I also thought the COBRA meeting should be today. They have enough on the agenda to hold one re: flooding, without adding Corona.
But they give no shits about anything or anyone outside London and the home counties.

I don't wish any MP dead or suffering but maybe one of them getting a low dose of this virus might focus a new minds!a lockdown in parliament would be ok as they have cheap drinks on tap!

This has come at the top of the longest rise in Stock market prices ( I believe from listening to the business news at 6.15am when I'm up in time. The 6.15 slot is interesting and I don't know why BBc doesn't have another session at a better time of day). And they very often have female experts in the economy/ banking/ investing interviewed.
If businesses stock value falls there is more risk of takeovers. So some normally stable companies might get taken over. Surely it also means, if companies aren't worth what they were, that there will be money saving exercises eg paying off staff, so could there be redundancies in some industrie. Airlines, Cruises and other tourism businesses will be hit.
If this is longer than say 6 months won't people stop going to the shops for fear of infection so more shopping online, so more shops in town centres closing down. Cafes will be hit. All those franchises!! All those air b&bs - will people visit them or stay home instead? It would be good in some ways if many of them were let or returned to the market.
There will be many unforeseen circumstances. Probably more seaside and countryside holidays for families rather than Centre Parcs etc

I think people are too blasé.

I would expect a correction of at least 25% in total. Many businesses just will not survive the social isolation phase of the virus.

Many countries (e.g Italy) are probably already in recession and this will lead to a bond (and Euro) crisis. Having some cash will be a very good thing.

The market should recover over time but this will probably be measured in years, not months.

If people get what they wish for and ban travel, close schools etc there will almost certainly be a recession and the people they want to protect will be in dire straits anyway

Charles,

That is pretty brutal! What is the alternative? Get it over with as quickly as possible, accept a mortality rate of 10-15% (and maybe 1/3 of the old) in return for a better economic outcome?!

I am pleased we are putting lives ahead of economics.