Please hear me out. I'm not saying "nobody will die from coronavirus". But, having read a bunch of stuff and carefully considered a number of factors, I'm concluding that (given the current state of knowlegde):
- COVID-19 has a mortality rate of somewhere in the range of 1-2 percent (which may be an overerstimation, given evidence of entirely asymptomatic cases who would be unlikely to have themselves tested unless covered "accidentally" in an at-risk group screening).
- Risk factors are: older, male, compromised health/pre-existing conditions - in other words: "already more likely to die".
- For comparison: the measles, MERS and SARS all had significantly higher mortality.
- While mortality per confirmed infection is, in fact, lower: the sheer prevalence of the flu make it a much more significant threat with more than half a million confirmed deaths / year.
In conclusion: the main problem seems to be that COVID-19 is somewhat more fatal than "just being ill" but it's the very fact that it's not particularly fatal that leads to infected individuals walking around out and about and unknowingly spreading their viruses. We're all still more statistically likely to die as a consequence of coronary disease, cancer or "just a flu".
This doesn't mean every death is not a tragedy. But: I worry that live-tickers on media pages and our employers sending daily updates on which business travel we should be cancelling as a precaution may, in fact, be making people feel paranoid and miserable in ways that simply aren't warranted.
I've just tried to put a beloved but (understandably!) worried about elderly family members colleague at ease over the whole thing - only to be immediately underminded by directive #38362946 from HQ, instructing us to please avoid all contact with fellow humans in areas A, B and C (fewer than 10 confirmed fatalities) and cancel any travel to D and E (a few more - but also a LOT more people overall and therefore fewer per capita deaths) because coronavirus.
I feel bad for colleague, who seems very genuinely worried and upset. I also feel bad for everyone else in this position. And of course I worry about my own "ticks every box for risk factors" family member - but I'm also painfully aware that the flu may kill them first.
I feel that the non-stop media coverage isn't helpful and that all it achieves is that people will feel more afraid than is actually warranted. Not saying it's not a serious issue - just that real-time updates on deaths and dedicated coverage aren't helpful.
So AIBU? More than happy to be told I am and why.
Would especially love to hear the views of HCPs.