to tell you the Conservatives are NOT on 43% support...despite what the media tells you

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The media only tell you the results for the people who know who they support.

When you look at the raw data tables,the results are:

Cons 33%
Lab 26%
Lib Dem 10%
Brexit 2%
SNP 4%
Won't vote: 9%
Refused to say: 4%
Don't know: 13%

But when it comes to the media, they only tell you those who know who they support.

Then there's also the issue about margins of error, weighting issues etc.

Damn, that’s some desperation - hope you’re around on election night

amn, that’s some desperation - hope you’re around on election night

It's factually accurate, isn't it....

What part of that data table is false?

We have a First Pass the Post system so the votes need to be concentrated in the right place to mean anything.

I live in an area where it's a 2 horse race really.

We have a First Pass the Post system so the votes need to be concentrated in the right place to mean anything

It looks like there is going to be a lot of tactical voting in this election.

Plenty of websites out there to advise you which way to vote.

It's going to be out the turnout as well.

The part where you publish the raw data tables and pretend that they are the “real” results, as opposed to what you imply are inaccurate headline figures. Pollsters don’t publish raw data as headline figures for good reason.

So I’m betting the headline figures will be closer to the actual result on election night. We’ll know soon enough.

Plenty of websites out there to advise you which way to vote.

I wouldn't put it past some of those websites to be set up by political parties to try and garner some votes.

The part where you publish the raw data tables and pretend that they are the “real” results, as opposed to what you imply are inaccurate headline figures. Pollsters don’t publish raw data as headline figures for good reason

You do know what 'raw data' means?

If 100 people are asked a question and 33 of them say they vote Conservative and 13 of them don't know, then 33 people support the Conservatives.

Not 43.

But @CendrillonSings I am sure Tory HQ have also been looking at the tables and realise that it's still all to play for.

The Daily Fail and the Daily Express will be getting its readers out to vote and reminding them not to be complacent.

Thanks for helping out then, I suppose!

If 100 people are asked a question and 33 of them say they vote Conservative and 13 of them don't know, then 33 people support the Conservatives.

Not 43.

So your prediction for Tory vote share on election night is...? Because I think it’ll be closer to 43 than 33.

Thanks for helping out then, I suppose

A double edged sword - encourage other voters that it's not all over but remind Conservatives not to be too complacent.

I get what you’re saying OP. But 43% of people who are definitely going to vote, have said they have/will vote Tory (by that poll at least).

The don’t-knows might not vote.

I take polls with a truckload of salt anyway. There are various demographics which are seriously under-polled. What’s the point of polls really? There’s only one that actually matters, and that’s on Thursday.

So your prediction for Tory vote share on election night is...? Because I think it’ll be closer to 43 than 33

Well, you've got some people who say they won't vote.

I'm going for

Cons 41%
Labour 38%
Lib Dem 10%

I dont understand how you're interpreting the data this way. The headline voting intention is 43% for Con which is the useful information for our purposes. The data you refer to explicitly refers to the party you'd vote for if given the option to vote for any of the available parties/candidates, on the assumption that you didnt know who is running in your constituency.

This is only helpful data to illustrate who people who vote for if they had free choice, where in reality that isn't an option depending where you live.

What’s the point of polls really

A very interesting question.

If polls were banned during election purdah, I wonder what the effect would be...

Especially if political parties were banned from doing them as well.

This is only helpful data to illustrate who people who vote for if they had free choice, where in reality that isn't an option depending where you live

It's true for all polls - when you look at the data tables, you'll see that the don't knows are excluded. Even when you look at the results for the question people ask at constituency level.

This is the headline figure, excluding those who don't know or refused, and weighted by likelihood to vote - see the image.

Probably hung parliament what time will we know?

Is there any data on more people voting?
I don't always vote nor my dh, my two dc won't be voting.
Me and dh are there at 7am because it's the only time we can make it and the dc missed a postal vote and will be getting married, well one will.
There must be more people like us who will vote this time, where previously didn't.
Is there any data on more younger people voting?

Probably hung parliament what time will we know

The exit poll?

Is there any data on more younger people voting

I hope that will happen - there's been a push but we'll see

So the gist of your thread is:

AIBU to tell you the Conservatives are NOT on 43% support...despite what the media tells you, because in fact ... they’re on 41%!

I’m sorry, but that’s genuinely funny!

I’m sorry, but that’s genuinely funny

Glad it amused you

I’m sorry, but that’s genuinely funny

In hindsight, it might have been better to focus on the lead. And it's not as big as the media tells you it is...

Still, it's prompted a discussion.

I think it’ll be an interesting night, and there’s a lot still to play for. I think there’ll be a few big names fall - possibly IDS which would be satisfying.

The weather forecast for Thursday is awful, cold and heavy rain. That will have an impact on turnout, particularly amongst older voters.