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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

To ask if you think house prices are going to drop soon?

38 replies

Birthdaycakemondays · 21/11/2019 16:05

We’re looking to buy, in an expensive area in the south east. We could really do with an extra 30k for the ideal family home for us right now. Do you think house prices are due to drop? Brexit? WIBU to continue renting right now or are we just throwing good money away when house prices aren’t likely to drastically change?

OP posts:
Lazypuppy · 21/11/2019 16:09

Maybe a bit, but too many pople are waiting to buy that the demand will be there for people to ask for higher prices.

Stegosaurus1990 · 21/11/2019 16:10

They’ve got to. It’s simply not sustainable.

Happyspud · 21/11/2019 16:12

Depends on too many factors. If you need a house and can afford it, don’t gamble.

Brimful · 21/11/2019 16:15

I don't think they will because the demand far, far outstrips supply in the housing market.

I wouldn't put off buying if you can afford it now, and get out of rented ASAP. Much better that your money is put towards your mortgage (and I'm saying that as a LL!).

GrumpyHoonMain · 21/11/2019 16:16

No I don’t think they will. If anything prices will increase on average (there will always be local exceptions) because immigration will be more skewed towards people with higher salaries and to countries where house-buying is not only preferable to renting but people have the cash to be able to buy outright.

Don’t delay a house purchase because you think prices will lower because they won’t lower faster than growth in most places. So buying now will mean in 7 years (when the first trade deals are being signed) your growth (if you bought now) will probably be higher than any possible price reduction.

2ndAugust · 21/11/2019 16:35

At the moment is looks like they are going down very very slightly. South East area, all the valuations are coming back down valued this month (mortgage broker) but in reality they haven’t risen in two years, as clients expected them to.

viccat · 21/11/2019 16:39

I doubt they'll drop significantly.
If you're otherwise ready to buy and in a good position to do so, you could always try to make a lower offer though?

treepolitics · 21/11/2019 16:41

I’d put it another way, if they dropped significantly the economy as a whole will be in trouble so if you can do it, do it. What are your local estate agents predicting? I know where I am they are confident of continued gains.

treepolitics · 21/11/2019 16:43

So waiting is a gamble on not losing jobs, having take home pay cut, costs like stamp duty going up, and lenders not applying more stringent lending criteria if the economy falters. If you’re reasonably confident on all those factors you might be able to get better bargains.

Velveteenfruitbowl · 21/11/2019 16:43

They’ll definitely plummet if labour wins the election. With brexit I think it depends on whether there will be a deal and if not how it pans out.

akkakk · 21/11/2019 16:46

We have been selling / buying / etc. - the markets are depressed currently due to uncertainty about Brexit / elections. Exceptions will be in areas where frequent turn-over for work reasons keeps people moving...

post election - prices will depend on election result - Labour will probably depress the market - Tories, will lead to a price rise but probably not until after the New Year - a lot of people have been holding off moving until they know more, so expect more houses to come onto the market, but also more people looking to buy...

the market may also be affected by landlords exiting buy to let properties in reaction to the tax changes next April

If you are ready to move use the current time to go in hard on discounted offers

OrangeZog · 21/11/2019 16:46

I don’t think they will. So many people I know have held off selling and purchasing because of brexit and they will go ahead with plans to buy next year. As a result I think more houses will be on the market but also there will be more buyers.

AJPTaylor · 21/11/2019 16:48

People have been waiting for prices to drop since 2007.

Roselilly36 · 21/11/2019 16:50

I wouldn’t buy at the moment, far to many variables to consider, I think prices will drop but no one can predict for sure. Perhaps when the GE & Brexit is done, confidence will return.

dayslikethese1 · 21/11/2019 16:51

We thought about this when we were buying last year. Bottom line was though that we were sick of renting and wanting to start putting our money into a mortgage rather than a LLs pocket, also we knew we would be living in the property a long time so could weather if if they drop for a bit. Rent is only going up as well where we are so not great to be stuck in rented.

tillytrotter1 · 21/11/2019 16:52

People have been waiting for prices to drop since 2007

Long before that, for those of us old enough to remember.

treepolitics · 21/11/2019 17:09

Yes, gawd I’ve been thinking there is a bubble since about 2002! we looked at the overpriced rentals around us and decided we had to get on with it.

Dissimilitude · 21/11/2019 17:16

The only thing that would drop them significantly and permanently (as opposed to a large, but temporary blip like the last crash in 2007/8), would be a huge housebuilding programme.

We have a fundamental mismatch of housing supply and demand in this country.

This is difficult to fix, politically, because most people's wealth is tied up in their house, and you won't look favourably on any government which causes (even for good reasons) a depreciation in the value of your main asset.

The best way out of this is a large housebuilding programme which leads to low or negligible growth in prices, for a long time, until prices come back to a reasonable multiple of wages.

Celeriacacaca · 21/11/2019 17:16

I'm in SE and no sign of prices dropping dramatically. If anything they're holding their own and, in some cases, at pre-Brexit nonsense prices. Brexit has been factored in already as we've had so many highs and lows during this godforsaken process that nothing, even a no deal, will make much difference.

A friend is a properly finder for Spanish and Italian clients. They're buying now at normal levels having slowed down a year ago.

Pipandmum · 21/11/2019 17:18

Stagnate until Brexit sorted (though do not see how that really affects the majority of people in terms of house ownership). Trend is forever up. My parents' London house cost £12.5k in 1967 and would be worth over £6m now looking at recent sold prices in the street. (£12.5K is worth about £225,000 in today's money). Sadly sold decades ago.

Widowodiw · 21/11/2019 17:18

Well this only works if you are a ftb surely as your house price will drop too? So yes if your a ftb I wouldn’t but something that i thought was an overinflated price. At the same time who knows and if you are renting then tbh you may aswell just buy something.

Sandwichhhh · 21/11/2019 17:22

I don't think they'll drop but they might stop rising so much in the SE. Think some middle-areas price wise may keep rising though.

Original poster
Birthdaycakemondays · 21/11/2019 18:47

Thanks everyone. Think we’ll just have to go for it & hope we aren’t making a mistake for the sake of months 🤦🏼‍♀️

OP posts:
MyNameIsMrsGrumpy · 21/11/2019 19:11

I’m on the fence at the moment.

I think they will dip, but not majorly 🤷‍♀️

Too many variables to predict

OddBoots · 21/11/2019 19:14

If they do it will be because the whole economy has tanked and unemployment is up and wages are down.