It's a brexit one...

[kumbyah]

I've just read that the government have asked schools to state how they will ensure they have enough food for school lunches if there is a no deal on 31st October?
Now I haven't been one to overly worry about brexit and it's effects but this in itself is kind of worrying isn't it? Aibu to think this could really be the case and aibu to be shocked by this?

We're so far from sunlit uplands, aren't we? And that bus.

Johnson and brexiters are shameless and will take the country for mugs if we let them.

take the country for mugs

And the EU?

"Britain would lose its EU budget rebate were it to decide to cancel Brexit and stay in the bloc, the European Commission’s budget chief has said."

"Günther Oettinger told reporters in Brussels that such a rebate was “no longer appropriate” in a family of nations."

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-budget-rebate-gunther-oetinger-second-referendum-remain-a8580616.html

Britain would lose its EU budget rebate were it to decide to cancel Brexit and stay in the bloc, the European Commission’s budget chief has said.

The rebate has been going on for over 30 years and Brexit is the catalyst for something that was going to happen anyway. It's not a punishment.

It's not a punishment.

Yes, I know - I didn't suggest it was.

Yes, I know - I didn't suggest it was.

Ok, I misread your post as saying that the EU would, in turn, take the UK for mugs.

I'm also outraged by the way we're seriously talking about restricted food and medicines (for ordinary people, naturally, not the friends and relatives of the political class I expect) in one of the richest countries in the world in peacetime. Why do so many people seem to have their heads in the sand over this? Why the constant repetition of 'scaremongering'? These are obvious likely results of a country dependent on trade for essential supplies withdrawing from their trading network!
No more bullshit from the Brexiteers - we deserve an answer to the concerns about our food supply, and we deserve it yesterday. Otherwise I too sincerely hope that this burden will fall disproportionately upon them, since they are so keen to 'take the pain'.

Yes I'm very worried too, why can't we have some decent verified actual information with facts not bloody soundbites and bullshit. I want to know how my little business will cope and how my dds future will be affected

Mr Darmanin (head of French customs) "said some 700 extra customs officers have been drafted in and authorities will also introduce online border declarations forcing companies to announce their goods prior to arriving at the border." “You are in Grenoble, you are a small or medium-sized company, you export to Britain and so you now declare everything online,” he said.

But no all traffic passing through Calais and Dunkirk comes from France. Fruit and veg comes from Spain and Italy; industrial components from Germany and Poland and so on. Will these exporters also have access to the French customs system? Likewise, I am not aware of any UK companies that have access to the system for return loads.

And before anyone else posts it, here is some confusing news from Dover:

"The Port of Dover is 100 per cent ready" for a no-deal Brexit, according to the port's boss, Doug Bannister.

Which is great news, until he contradicts himself:

However, he told Bloomberg that he still has no clarity on the "rules of the game" such as what documents will be needed for freight consignments

Bannister's statement confirms the doubts being expressed - ports, companies and hauliers cannot possibly be ready for Brexit as there is 'still ... no clarity on the "rules of the game"

Mr Bannister also conceded that he was anticipating disruption: "whether it’s a day, two days, a week, two weeks, a month, two months, nobody can really predict”

Which again suggests that there are grounds to believe that everything is not going to be quite as easy as the government keeps claiming it will be.

• Following on from Havanananana, "Yellowhammer" is the average, worst case is something called "Black Swan" and no Government would publish that! Why are they stockpiling bodybags? think about that! I wouldn't trust BoJo the Clown to time a boiling egg!*

Stockpiling body bags?!

However, he told Bloomberg that he still has no clarity on the "rules of the game" such as what documents will be needed for freight consignments.

He also says; “Once the rules of the game are known business will adapt, and they will adapt very, very swiftly."^

But not all traffic passing through Calais and Dunkirk comes from France.Fruit and veg comes from Spain and Italy; industrial components from Germany and Poland and so on.Will these exporters also have access to the French customs system?

"The port of Calais has developed a special tool that’s very easy to use (web page), available in 12 languages (French, English, Spanish, German, Romanian, Russian, Bulgarian, Polish, Hungarian, Lithuanian, Czech and Turkish), allowing truck drivers to check the customs status of their cargo as soon as the ship is unloaded (on import) and monitor its progress in case of "orange" status."

www.portboulognecalais.fr/en/freight-import-export

Also in your Bloomberg report;

"He said he felt the Yellowhammer prediction represented a “worst, worst case scenario.”

"The port of Calais has developed a special tool that’s very easy to use (web page), available in 12 languages (French, English, Spanish, German, Romanian, Russian, Bulgarian, Polish, Hungarian, Lithuanian, Czech and Turkish), allowing truck drivers to check the customs status of their cargo as soon as the ship is unloaded (on import) and monitor its progress in case of "orange" status."

This system is for the truck drivers so that they can be correctly directed at the port of Calais. (is it also in use at Dunkirk?) It is a traffic management system rather than a Customs system - which still has to be completed correctly by the exporting company (or companies, for consignment loads). It also relies on things running smoothly at Dover - and yet Bannister says there is 'no clarity on the "rules of the game"''.

He said he felt the Yellowhammer prediction represented a “worst, worst case scenario.”

This has been done to death on the other Brexit threads. The Yellowhammer document seen by the Sunday Times and the version sent to the Scottish Government clearly says 'Base Scenario'. Here's a photo from the Scottish Office that confirms this.

The worst case scenario is rumoured to be code-named 'Black Swan' (or Brown Trousers in Private Eye). The worst, worst case scenario is called 'State of Emergency'.

I can't believe people are still foolish enough to think that represents the worst case scenario.
And to believe anyone who says it is.
Forget unlikely bad stuff, I'm sure even the most feeble imagination can think of terrorism or norovirus outbreak. And how the UK might manage that if on the back foot should either of those occur at a bad time.

It is a traffic management system rather than a Customs system

It is a Customs system;

"Smart border was designed for all Customs procedures transit, import or export Its core principle is early completion of Customs procedures for import and export."

"Under this approach, Customs declarations must be identified with a bar code in the driver’s possession. The bar code establishes a link between the number plates of the HGV and its Customs or transit declaration(s)"

^"All these declarations cover the contents of a HGV identified via its number plate upon arrival at the Customs facility (port or Eurotunnel terminal) electronic registration of the HGV number plate and
Customs forms (also known as pairing enables the HGV to be tracked as it goes through the facility, especially when it crosses the border."^

^"After the border has been crossed, the vehicle is not permitted to
turn back.Thus, upon arriving in France, the haulier will automatically be directed to the green or orange lane depending on the declaration status of the imported goods. Conversely, for exports , a HGV without
customs formalities cannot leave EU territory."^

It also relies on things running smoothly at Dover - and yet Bannister says there is 'no clarity on the "rules of the game"'.

And he says; “Once the rules of the game are known business will adapt, and they will adapt very, very swiftly."

is it also in use at Dunkirk?
I'm not sure, although Dunkirk is less affected by ro-ro; "mostly known for handling heavy bulk, also does well in other sectors, including containers."

"France’s Customs authority will test its preparedness for a no-deal Brexit and a smart border in a series of “dry runs” with Transport et Logistique de France (TLF Overseas) through the corridors of Dunkerque, Calais port, Calais tunnel, Dieppe, Le Havre, Caen-Ouistreham, Cherbourg, Saint-Malo, and Roscoff."

I can't believe people are still foolish enough to think that represents the worst case scenario. And to believe anyone who says it is.

Unsworth - a freight forwarding company;

"It is ironic that the leaked Government documents detailing Brexit preparations, code-named Operation Yellowhammer, predicting delays, shortages, and price rises in the event of a no-deal Brexit makes the front pages, while the released D1ND no-deal planning which is all about expediting movement through Ro/Ro ports to avoid such a scenario isn’t mentioned."

"HMRC have prepared a number of processes and easements that would only come into force if the UK were to leave the EU without any deal or Withdrawal Agreement."

"The new scheme Transitional Simplified Procedures (TSP) at RoRo locations is designed as an ‘Easement’ of traffic for Day 1."

the version sent to the Scottish Government clearly says 'Base Scenario'.

And the CEO of Dover said he felt the Yellowhammer prediction represented a “worst, worst case scenario” (for customs and shipments via Dover - he is obviously talking about his area of expertise, not commenting on other areas).

The Yellowhammer document is dated 2nd August - but the data collated for that report has obviously been collected in the weeks and months prior to this date. The ex-HMRC border chief gave evidence recently, quoting the same stats as the Yellowhammer report - but she retired from her post in June - she confirmed that she had not seen any planning documents after this date. Even if it was 'base scenario' on the 2nd August - it's not 'base scenario' 7 weeks later.

Look how quickly things move on:

Kent County Council - December 2018
"A no-deal Brexit could cause major disruption across Kent, with gridlock on the roads around Dover, rubbish not being collected, children unable to take exams and rubbish piling up on streets, a local council report has warned."

"if the worst-case scenario came to pass, it would inform everyone affected."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/06/no-deal-brexit-could-cause-chaos-across-kent-warns-council

Kent County Council - September 2019

"Kent has well-developed plans to ensure we minimise disruption to Kent’s residents and businesses."

"Kent’s no-deal plans have been in place since March 2019.We were prepared, if required, ahead of the previous no-deal deadline (31 March and 12 April 2019).Through close collaborative working with the Department for Transport and Kent Resilience Forum, we have a well-thought through, sensible and practical plan, “Operation Brock”, ready to go live at short notice."

How do you know an HGV has crossed the NI/ROI Border in this scenario?

How do you know an HGV has crossed the NI/ROI Border in this scenario?

With great difficulty if you are based in Dover or Calais.

"Democratic Unionist Party MP, Sammy Wilson, asserted at a session of Parliament’s Brexit select committee: “[There is] existing infrastructure which is there at present, because there are CCTV cameras, there’s ANPR, and it’s not a target, although it does monitor cross border trade."

We know there are other difficulties of course.

Ah yes, Sammy Wilson. He speaks for everyone and entirely understands what it means to remove rights from Irish identifying people in NI.