To wonder if we'll really have food shortages after Brexit?

[OrangePowered]

For the first time I'm genuinely starting to think about buying some extra tins of food and extra toilet roll and toothpaste because I've heard so much about how there might be shortages if we leave without a deal on 31st October which is an act of fucking madness.

Is this a genuine threat? How bad could things get?

I think it's highly likely some foods will be limited and prices will increase if there's a no deal Brexit.

Just in time food supply and distribution (how our supermarkets work) can be upset by a heavy dose of snow. Is a No Deal Brexit likely to be worse than a heavy fall of snow?
I think you know the answer to that one.

And before you get fooled by the word "stockpiling ", what general preppers like me have been recommending for over a year now on here, is to get a buffer of food and supplies in as suits your budget and storage space. 3 days from dawn till dusk is a good starting point.things like toothpaste as well as food. Little treats too.
Just so you don't have to go to the shops if it gets "bumpy " to use Michael Gove's expression.
Maybe, if you can afford it, do some early Christmas present shopping to avoid customs tarrifs on imported goods or general import delays.

Well I'm going to - DH raised his eyebrows until I pointed out we could run out of teabags - at which point he thought it was a good idea. Not that I think that the stores will be empty but the prices will rise no doubt, simply because they can and all the businesses will be rubbing their hands in glee and blaming Brexit. Not masses, just so we won't starve (so chocolate, biscuits, cake mixes and maple syrup. Oh and chocolate. )

I've set my second freezer up and have started to fill with decent frozen veg and some meats. Just in case

There's likely to be shortages of some food, particularly fresh produce. If you can get a few bits in, such as tinned fruit to substitute for fresh etc, then it wouldn't be a bad idea. I'm not sure i'd want to be visiting shops in the few days after the 31st.

Fresh food is likely to be disrupted in the short term at least.
Longer term prices are highly likely to go up.
No country has attempted to change the way it trades overnight with no plan as to what comes next so it isn't possible to be sure what will happen.
But we have spent the last 40 years moving in one direction trade wise and now we are giving up on that direction without having any other direction to replace it so I would imagine it could get difficult for a while at least.
That said supermarkets will want to sell and food manufacturers will want supply so they will all be trying to find solutions and keep things going.

until I pointed out we could run out of teabags - at which point he thought it was a good idea

I’d be so tempted to hide the teabags and tell him you forgot to buy , if the SHTF, just to see the look on his face. Feck it! We’ll need to find our humour somewhere.

OP Even if there are no shortages, prices WILL go up. The leavers even acknowledge that, so buying now will eases the shock of that later.

If we leave with no deal there is no doubt that imports will be impacted. This includes food, and essentials such as toilet paper. People won’t starve, but there will be shortages, particularly of fresh items which will be rotting in wagons at ports.

FMCG and supermarkets have been very clear on this - it’s not a secret.

Well the supermarkets think so, so...

There will obviously be disruption.
Question is how long and how long will we have prices increases for! I've filled my freezer and larder and done Xmas shopping since start of summer when it became more and more negative. Its a fucking mess.

Nobody knows anything.
If medical needs is get that sorted soon..

You’ll get replies along the line of “we grow lots here and we survived the war!”

Our population cannot survive on the food we produce alone, it’s that simple. There are many, many more of us than during the war and so very many more of us live in flags and HOM without gardens for growing food (and not to mention growing food over winter takes time and skill).
Many of the food products that are manufactured in this country are made with ingredients sourced in the EU. The same goes for the likes of loo roll, cleaning products and personal hygiene stuff.

I believe the U.K. produces a little over half of what it consumes, I read the figure as 54% last week. And we have been a country reliant on imports for many hundreds of years.
Getting stuff into the country could become difficult. We don’t know what the process is going to be like and if HMRC will just wave through vehicles if there are major issues (if so then WTF is the point of Brexit?). If vehicles don’t get waved through and why would they, then food will be left to rot on trucks and drivers will reach their hours sitting in queues meaning they can’t drop off and turn around to pick up and drop off more food. It’s a spiral.

I have a friend who works at a major port who has said that areas of one port which were previously carparks where they could inspect vehicles have now been built on. There is nowhere to put a huge number of vehicles that require checks and inspections which is why Operation Stack is a thing.

Also all the lorries that go abroad will need special permits for each of the two parts of the lorries. Where and when does this come into force and when are companies going to deal with it?

If you can afford to - put some extra food into your shopping trolley when you do a big shop. This isn’t panic buying, this is buying in good time and giving supermarkets time to restock within the just in time infrastructure.
If you shop sensibly in good time, it gives time for the food to be replenished and takes you out of the equation when it comes to panic buying further down the line.

There have already been 4987 threads on this. Some people believe there will
Be shortages and are preparing accordingly. Some people don't and aren't. Others think it's fun to goad people who are doing the opposite to them.
Do some research. Read some other threads. Make your own decision.

Lots of typos there but excuse me, I’m typing and baking.

DM works at a pharmacy and people are already not being able to get their prescriptions due to the government emergency stockpiling, and Brexit hasn't even happened yet. I imagine it wouldn't be that unlikely that if there are medicine shortages already, there might be food shortages once Brexit has happened. My DM said she thinks the people who voted to stay in the EU should have their prescriptions prioritised as the people who voted for Brexit knew that this is what they were voting for and chose to vote for it anyway.

So my diet consists mainly of poultry, meat, fish, eggs, frozen vegetables, salads, cheese, fruit, and coffee.

So I could stick up on, say, tinned salmon, tinned fruit and frozen vegetables but what else?

I don't eat/ like stuff like pasta and rice. I've bought loo rolls.

Justin King, the former CEO of Sainsbury’s, says that in event of No Deal, there would be a high risk of shortages of fresh food.

Michael Gove & Jacob Rees-Mogg, two politicians who know nothing about food supply chains, say there won’t.

Who do you think is more likely to be right?

I've set my second freezer up and have started to fill with decent frozen veg and some meats. Just in case

There's no point in that - there will be no electricity and we'll all be living in caves pelting each other with rocks.

I don't eat/ like stuff like pasta and rice. I've bought loo rolls.

That may work, but it could need some cheese sauce to go down.

Has anyone seen a list for simpletons such as myself who aren’t sure what might become in short supply?

If we leave with No Deal then as things stand, yes. Because we're nowhere near self sufficient in food and because of the way our supply chain works. I would expect some arrangements to be made pretty quickly, but meantime there could still be very little available in the shops while this is sorted. There's also no guarantee that the things you want to buy will be prioritised.

So it would be prudent to get an extra stash of non-perishable food in as a buffer against this if you have space and funds, which includes those of you who only like fresh food too. If it isn't available, you'll still need to eat, so would be worth getting a few days worth of whatever you can manage. By all means wait until tonight's outcome if you prefer.

My DM said she thinks the people who voted to stay in the EU should have their prescriptions prioritised
This is fine as long as people like me who have never voted Tory and therefore didn't even vote for the fucking referendum can be higher priority. What shitty, bigoted, stupid small minded and ridiculous attitude.

Idontwanttotalk once the fresh stuff is off the shelves, what will you eat. Once there’s a shortage of fresh stuff, people will buy frozen, then tins. You need to experiment with tinned food and work out what you will eat, if you’re stuck. I bought the Tin Can Cookbook, just to see what meals can be made from pantry food. Although the food isn’t the most exciting, at least it will give some variety.

Yep, there’s going to be food shortages. The government’s own impact assessment tells us that there’s going to be food shortages. The supermarkets have told the government that there’s going to be food shortages. Common sense and an understanding of just in time distribution knows there’s going to be shortages.

My sister is a pharmacist and needs daily medication for a potentially life threatening condition (think epilepsy or type 1diabetes type condition). She’s been stockpiling her medication for the last year, and she is a (very regretful) leave voter.

@familycourtq

What shitty, bigoted, stupid small minded and ridiculous attitude.

Wow, what a delightful thing to say about my mother! Thank you :) How pleasant of you, and I am sure she will be grateful to hear what you think of her! My thoughtful, selfliess, LEFT WING mother who is as pissed off at the Tories as you also seem to be. Obviously she doesn't actually expect for the prioritisation to be implemented, it was more of a statement, she would never in a million years vote Tory and often in tears at the state of affairs within the NHS which she works so hard for. She has been to many anti-Brexit campaigns, and fights so hard for what she believes in.

But yes, please do continue to call my mother a bigot, however you couldn't be more wrong and I am sorry that you are clearly very upset about the situation, as is she. I hope your day improves

My thoughtful, selfliess
Not very if she advocates allocation of medicines in accordance with people's voting habits, is she?