To think a House Price crash is coming

[HoneyIgrewthekids]

I dont know when or where but im starting to notice more and more homes not selling and this is in a previously hot area of London. AIBU to expect a 20-40% crash in the near future.

Another thing that gets me is some houses are on Rightmove for literally years.

Surely, if it hasn't sold for 1 year, and you actually want to sell it, you know it is time for a noticeable price cut?

The Scottish Government seems to be doing its utmost to bring about a house price crash. Rampant building of new housing estates everywhere coupled with 4 per cent extra stamp duty on 'second homes' (also catches out people who buy a family home together but can't sell their one bedroom starter flat), alongside tax rises and stagnating wages. I know people who've had starter type homes on the market for 2 years and can't sell, presumably because no landlords want to invest in Scotland, now the most regulated and licensed rental market in the world, much any more, or if they do, they buy new builds.

There has been a house price crash going on for a couple of years in parts of Scotland, particularly the north east. You just don't read about in the strangely silent media. The new build/part exchange market is keeping it sort of together, but thats a false type of market.

DH now lives 1 1/4 hours drive from his work (3 1/4 hours one way on public transport...) and we talked about buying a one bedroom flat nearer where he works to improve his standard of life. But even the cheapest one means putting down £45,000 when you add together the minimum deposit required now that buy-to-let mortgages are restricted to 80% mostly) and the 4% stamp duty. Or he could maybe rent a room for £500 a month, which would be considerably more than an interest only mortgage would cost. We don't want to move nearer his work because prices for what we have here are extortionate and its not as nice. We came to the conclusion that it would be easier for him to look for work in Holland or Belgium and sell up here in time! If we can. So I hope there isn't a massive house price crash!

Houses seem to be selling superfast where I am at the moment (north west). My neighbour's house went on Rightmove a week last Friday and the sold sign went up the following Monday. So literally one weekend. Similar experience when I sold a relative's house last year, we kept that on the market for a week to let all the people that booked a viewing get chance to see it. I forget how many offers we had, think it was thirteen, and it sold for 20% more than the asking price. Unless something goes (even more) horrendously wrong with Brexit I can't see prices crashing here.

I bought a flat in London for £660k in 2016. It was recently valued for about the same, maybe a bit less. If I added in the stamp duty I paid then in real terms it has gone down. But I think prices will not go down much further - stagnate for sure. But I’ve heard it time and time again, and even after the crash in 2008 prices go ever higher, even if they dip for a bit.

Houses here in the SW are selling pretty well and prices are still (very) slowly rising. I’m surprised but perhaps as we are a leave voting area there’s not so much local negativity about Brexit?
London certainly seems like a completely different market.

No, I highly doubt there will be a crash. Why, do you want one OP?

Houses round here (East anglia) are slow to sell. Someone near us bought their house 3 years ago for £440k it was well.maintained and they've kept it looking lovely. They put it on the market in November for £470k and since then have had to drop the price every few weeks. They've just accepted an offer of £400k.

Another neighbour has cut their house price from £1m to £795k before getting an offer.

On the other hand, another person down our road put their house on at £950k which I thought was overpriced but sold it at the full asking price within a week.

Everyone's been predicting a crash for years. I think there will be a slow decline but no one is wanting to buy or sell unless they have to, because of Brexit.

It's about time there was a huge crash. Make housing affordable again. And hit the buy to let buyers that are able to help inflate prices making it even harder.

It's nothing but greed that has made people accept such stupid house prices. When people treated a house as a home rather than an investment the prices were much more sensible.

I think there seems to be a bit of a slowdown in my part of the SE. Houses that would have been snapped up at around the £500k mark a year ago are hanging around and being reduced.

The houses where we live are quite reasonably priced for a family home here. They're cheaper than the tiny cottages in the historic town centre, but have decent sized gardens and parking, and are bigger overall. They used to be snapped up really quickly but there are a couple that seem to be hanging around even though they've been reduced.

I can't see a full-blown national crash like we had at the end of the 80s/early 90s, but I think that London and the SE may well get the price correction that they escaped in 2008-10.

Oxfordshire appears to have missed the memo. We've bid on 3 houses and all 3 have gone to best and final sealed bids. All 3 sold well above asking price.

Houses seem to be selling superfast where I am at the moment (north west).

That kind of reinforces my opinion, as NW prices fell in the late noughties when London and the SE mostly didn't.

If things are picking up in the NW and slowing down in the SE, maybe the price gap will start to close a little.

Yes then the Russians will swoop in and buy it all. Brexit complete

No, there won’t be and Current data suggests London is experiencing about a 1% drop in prices.
Russians stopped snapping up central London property a few years ago

House prices will continue to rise until there is sufficient supply to meet demand.

House at the higher end of the market around here are not moving at all.

Same houses on RM for 18+ months. Drop them by 5k thinking that’s going to make a difference. Mate bought a house for 680k in 2016. Has just sold for 685k. Was on the market for 14 months.

Buyers rinsed her for furniture and everything else, they knew she needed to sell.

Seems to have slowed where I am; I know someone who is trying to sell and it's taking ages. I assume Brexit has made ppl cautious.

there is no house price crash coming.

I don't think there will be a crash. I think prices will fall back perhaps 10% (there have already been 20% falls in prime London and this will ripple out). The fall will come from inflationary salary increases reducing the multiples. Poor time to buy but people won't listen.

I bought a flat for 30k in 82, sold it in 87 for 95k, bought first house for 126k (in 18 months end 88 next door sold for 178k and I thought the buyers were bonkers). By 1990 similar houses in perfect nick were making 125 to 130 tops. Sold it in 1994 for 160k. Bought next house from a bankrupt developer for 320k in an area being developed and blighted. Sold at top of market end of 2014. Prices there have already fallen back by 20-25%. This will ripple out.

Bought a dated doer upper 12 miles out in early2015. Paid fair market value. Have totally renovated and may just break even. However, it is perfectly to our taste and will be our last home. Why did we do it? To dodge potential mansion tax.

there is no house price crash coming.

For some reason Michael Fish and his “don’t worry there is no hurricane coming” , from many years ago, comment popped into my head!

There isn't a lack of housing in the UK.

There is a lack of affordable housing in some hot spots and an absolute crisis as far as 1st time buyers are concerned in London.

I can see massive price drops in some areas if interest rates go up. The BTL crowd will be unable to afford their multiple mortgages and a flood of properties will come on to the market.

There was a huge house price crash from roughly 1990 to 1997. People's memories are short!

It's about time there was a huge crash. Make housing affordable again
In the event of a widespread economic crisis that triggers a crash, interest rates will go up, banks will restrict lending, people will lose their jobs, and despite houses being cheaper they’ll be more unaffordable than ever.

YABU. There won't be one.

Ah, if I had a penny for every thread with this title over the last 5 years.

5 years? 20 years would be more accurate.

If Brexit completely savage the property market, it won't be restricted to properties and I am not sure anyone really want to go through that. It might happen, but it really is not a good thing for anyone.

Last time we had a small "crash" people stayed put and nothing was selling anyway.

If it stops younger people hating me and appearing (metaphorically) at the gate with torches and pitchforks, it's OK with me.

Price crash requires a situation where people aren't buying anymore.

No deal Brexit would do it do it I reckon.