There’s every possibility the 30 hours scheme will eventually mean there is more need for playgroups, not less.
Research shows that, in the year before 30 hours was introduced, 49% of nurseries were operating at or below a financial break-even point, making them highly vulnerable to changing conditions. Iow, nurseries were never charging enough for childcare, even before so many "free" hours were claimed.
Since then, they have faced higher costs: chiefly rising commercial rents; national living wage; workplace pension; insurance premiums.
Funding rates for the "free" hours are even lower than the regular charges. Nurseries lose about £1000pa for every child on "free" hours. This is clearly unsustainable, and the likely outcome will be the loss of up to half of all Nursery places in the not too distant future.
To some degree, nurseries can offset some losses by charging more forunder 3s, but then they lose clients. They can choose not to offer "free" places, but then they lose business also. Many appear to be offering "free" hours so as not to lose business, whilst surviving on bank loans they may be unable to repay. It’s unsustainable.
The number of childminders has been in decline since shortly after coming under Ofsted. This decline has apparently been accelerated since 30 hours came in.