Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To ask some basic questions about Brexit?

38 replies

Notmyusual80 · 24/01/2019 12:25

There are some things I don’t understand (and feel a bit stupid aboutBlush) Please don’t roll your eyes at me! I’m a remainer, if that makes any difference.

  1. Why exactly will it be harder to travel/work/ live in the EU if we leave? Is it just that we’ll need Visas? If so, that’s not really that difficult, is it?
  1. Why might we have problems getting hold of some medicines?
  1. And the backstop - so when we leave, NI will eventually have a hard border with the rest of Ireland so imports/exports will incur costs, yes? And this could create a divide/tensions between them like in the bad old days.
OP posts:
Bluntness100 · 24/01/2019 14:37

Bellini Et all thanks, that was very helpful I now understand the Irish issue a lot better.

And I can see the issue clearly there has to be some form of border between an eu and non eu country. But conversely you can't have a hard border in Ireland as a whole due to thr good Friday agreement. It's pretty much impossible to resolve.

I can now understand why the eu is saying if there is no deal there needs to be a hard border basically.

Bluntness100 · 24/01/2019 14:39

Gibraltar/Spain raises some similar issues too as lots of people live in one and work in the other and cross every day just to get to work

Yes but there is a border between Spain and gib which also includes identity checks.

nonevernotever · 24/01/2019 17:12

It's a long read, but may I recommend reading the transcript of this lecture which tackles many of the myths on both sides of the debate: www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institute/news/2019/jan/sir-ivan-rogers-brexit-lecture-text-and-video

Chloemol · 24/01/2019 17:47

It’s just another project fear.

Bluntness100 · 24/01/2019 17:49

It’s just another project fear

That 95 percent of parliament are behind?

But oh if it were true, sigh, that would be fantastic. Sadly it's not.

Ta1kinPeace · 24/01/2019 18:20

@Notmyusual80
Re Visa costs for work .....
Look at what the UK charges non EU nationals to work here and you'll see the likely direction of travel
www.gov.uk/tier-2-general

TheElementsSong · 24/01/2019 18:50

It’s just another project fear

🎵 It’s just another drive-by empty-slogan-spritzer 🎶

Grin
Motheroffourdragons · 24/01/2019 18:55

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

Gth1234 · 24/01/2019 19:00

@op

spot on. No deal for me.

mobyduck · 28/01/2019 00:56

Brexit basics for everyone:
Although he failed to emerge from an Airbus waving it, MP Mark Francois had in his hand a piece of paper. “My father, Reginald Francois, was a D-day veteran,” he thundered to the news cameras on Friday, shortly before ripping up the aforementioned document. “He never submitted to bullying by any German. Neither will his son.”
Leaving aside the somewhat bathetic description of Rommel’s Atlantic Wall defences as “bullying”, can you guess what Mark’s piece of paper actually was? Certification of a history doctorate? (He amusingly already holds an MA in war studies.) A letter from his future self reading simply “Don’t be a thermonuclear dick, Mark – it ends badly”?

I’m afraid not. The document was in fact a widely reported missive from the German CEO of Airbus, Tom Enders, who employs 14,000 people in this country and supports a further 110,000 jobs in the supply chain. This week he expressed intense frustration that “more than two years after the result of the 2016 referendum, businesses are still unable to plan for the future … If you are still really sure that Brexit is best for Britain,” Enders concluded, “come together and deliver a pragmatic withdrawal agreement.” Or, as Francois counter-reasoned: “Tom Enders was a German paratrooper in his youth.”

Jacob Rees-Mogg suggested that the Queen should, if necessary, suspend parliament to stop things not going his way

Incredibly, given this competition, Quote of the Week must still go to Nadine Dorries, who went on telly to express contempt for Brexit-cautious MPs “who really don’t care about their careers going up in flames”. Did the erstwhile gobbler of kangaroo testicles just say that out loud? To hear Nadine speak at the best of times feels like intruding on private stupidity, but even by her standards, this is eye-catching from the member for Mid-Bedfordshire. It can’t really be that Nadine should have been in parliament for almost 14 years without anyone informing her that politicians are in fact SUPPOSED to act out of a higher sense of duty than personal career advancement.

Far more believable is the idea that someone has actually flipped her wiring, so that the things Nadine ought to say remain only secret thoughts, while her inner monologue is now broadcast in all its epoch-illuminating glory. Hilarity ensues. Or possibly catastrophe. Ask me again in 63 days.

Indeed, as the Brexit clock ticks down, Nadine may well be regarded by future historians as the archetypal thinker of the era. Even at this incredibly late hour, vast swaths of parliament are doggedly placing self-interest above national interest, apparently bolstered by some vague belief that Britain is too big to fail. Or, as Holly Golightly liked to think of Tiffany’s, that nothing very bad could ever happen to you there. If they hold fast to their current priorities and shun the personal inconvenience of compromise, no deal could very conceivably be stumbled into.

Of course, there would be no stumbling about it for some. Consider the lavishly preposterous MP for Shrewsbury and Atcham, Daniel Kawczynski, who this week took it upon himself to announce that he has written to the Polish prime minister and requested “formally” that Poland veto any request by the UK to extend article 50. We can’t be sure what formal channels this MP believes himself to be operating within, but openly demanding that foreign powers subvert the will of the UK legislature did seem to be the second hottest take on parliamentary sovereignty in as many days.

The hottest take, as so often, belonged to Daniel’s European Research Group (ERG) colleague Jacob Rees-Mogg, who on Wednesday gave an address during which he suggested that the Queen should, if necessary, suspend parliament to stop things not going his way. Great to see that prorogation has officially entered the game, as yet another reminder that Brexit is rarely about the things it says it is about. Nothing says “I believe passionately in parliamentary sovereignty” quite as convincingly as demanding that the sovereign shut down parliament.

Rees-Mogg believes Britain could surf the wave of no deal. He’s really very like Patrick Swayze in Point Break in that respect – except with an opera coat, no charisma and zero personal exposure to the 50-year storm. Yet people continue to misread him as dependably as his father used to misread the future. At Wednesday’s event, the economist Roger Bootle introduced him as “a modest man … too modest, almost, for his own good”. To which the only sane reply is: lololololololol. If you had to distil into one personage the British people’s gibbering historical deference to terrible ideas advanced by low-to-middlebrow post-feudal shitlords who openly detest them, this plastic aristocrat would be it. Rees-Mogg is the logical end of whole centuries of barking up the wrong tree. In the most recent leadership polls of Tory members, obviously, he trailed only Boris Johnson.

And so to Brexit’s best-paid influencers. What an inevitability to learn that the former Brexit secretary David Davis has walked straight into a £60,000, 20-hour-a-year gig to advise the digger manufacturing firm JCB. That works out at £3,000 an hour, which feels like the sort of rate that might be expected if your workplace was a glass coffee table in Riyadh. Boris Johnson seems to be on ten grand a pop from the same source, suggesting he provides services too grotesque even for metaphorical allusion. It certainly feels more fitting than ever that he made last week’s speech at JCB in front of a great big hoe.
Perhaps the best that can be said for JCB’s Brexiteer chairman, Sir Anthony Bamford, is that his business is, at least for now, still headquartered in the UK. News that the leave advocate James Dyson is to relocate his HQ to Singapore is proving harder to spin, particularly given he’s said: “It’s to make us future-proof for where we see the biggest opportunities.” Still, it will be one upside if we’re no longer required to genuflect and defer to Dyson on matters other than suction. I wonder if it says something about Britain that its Greatest Inventor makes vacuum cleaners and hair dryers and so on. Nothing wrong with that, of course – we all need them. But it’s hardly the premier league of inventions. Oh, you can give it “the airblade” all you like. But faced with an attacking move by the creators of artificial hearts or water-powered engines, Dyson and his hand-dryers would be hopelessly outclassed.
Mark Francois may believe Britain could never be outclassed, even as he talks in a way that might reasonably be expected to appal the actual participants in events over which he has only heavy-breathed. But others on both the leave and remain sides may judge the UK’s self-respect to be hanging by a thread.

And that’s where we stand as Theresa May heads into the latest of her crunch weeks – although Philip Hammond has reinforced the government’s reputation for can-kicking by suggesting that Tuesday’s vote doesn’t have to be “the sort of high-noon moment … It’s a great British tradition to compromise and find a solution,” he judged on Friday, “rather than standing throwing rocks at each other from different sides of the argument.” Mmm. Is Hammond watching the same Brexit you’re watching? The UK’s mad yen for self-dramatisation is a big part of what got us here; perhaps the sense of ourselves as instinctively great at this stuff should be abandoned as the need for a solution moves into its emergency stage.

catlady3 · 28/01/2019 01:05

@housebuildingsos, you do realise that you have no trouble getting into Norway or Switzerland currently because they have freedom of movement, either through bilateral treaties or single market membership... So that's a terrible example.

mobyduck · 28/01/2019 01:06

and more:From today's Guardian:

UK cannot simply trade on WTO terms after no-deal Brexit, say experts
UK may face seven-year wait for frictionless trade under WTO rules if it crashes out of EU
The UK will be unable to have frictionless, tariff-free trade under World Trade Organization rules for up to seven years in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to two leading European Union law specialists.
The ensuing chaos could double food prices and plunge Britain into a recession that could last up to 30 years, claim the lawyers who acted for Gina Miller in the historic case that forced the government to seek parliament’s approval to leave the EU.

It has been claimed that the UK could simply move to WTO terms if there is no deal with the EU. But Anneli Howard, a specialist in EU and competition law at Monckton Chambers and a member of the bar’s Brexit working group, believes this isn’t true.

“No deal means leaving with nothing,” she said. “The anticipated recession will be worse than the 1930s, let alone 2008. It is impossible to say how long it would go on for. Some economists say 10 years, others say the effects could be felt for 20 or even 30 years: even ardent Brexiters agree it could be decades.”

The government’s own statistics have estimated that under the worst case no-deal scenario, GDP would be 10.7% lower than if the UK stays in the EU, in 15 years.

There are two apparently insurmountable hurdles to the UK trading on current WTO tariffs in the event of Britain crashing out in March, said Howard.

Firstly, the UK must produce its own schedule covering both services and each of the 5,000-plus product lines covered in the WTO agreement and get it agreed by all the 163 WTO states in the 32 remaining parliamentary sitting days until 29 March 2019. A number of states have already raised objections to the UK’s draft schedule: 20 over goods and three over services.

To make it more complicated, there are no “default terms” Britain can crash out on, Howard said, while at the same time, the UK has been blocked by WTO members from simply relying on the EU’s “schedule” – its existing tariffs and tariff-free trade quotas.

The second hurdle is the sheer volume of domestic legislation that would need to be passed before being able to trade under WTO rules: there are nine statutes and 600 statutory instruments that would need to be adopted.

The government cannot simply cut and paste the 120,000 EU statutes into UK law and then make changes to them gradually, Howard said. “The UK will need to set up new enforcement bodies and transfer new powers to regulators to create our own domestic regimes,” she said.

“Basic maths shows that we will run out of time but any gap in our system will create uncertainty or conflict,” said Howard. “Some of these regimes carry penalties such as fines – even criminal offences in some sectors.”

Unless there is an extension to article 50, both these hurdles will need to be crossed by 29 March. This, said Howard, was an impossible task. “Negotiating and ratifying the international free trade deals with the rest of the world alone could take over seven years,” she said.

“A no-deal Brexit could double prices for some products like meat and dairy. There is also a greater risk of trade disputes and sanctions, resulting in reduced market access for UK businesses.

“It’s not just about money,” she said. “We are dependent on imports for a lot of things that we don’t make any more or don’t make enough of, or simply cannot make as they are patented or subject to rules of origin – like lifesaving drugs, radioactive isotopes for MRI scans, medical equipment, chemicals, electricity, petrol, even milk. Shortages and delays could cause panic buying or even civil unrest.”

Somerville · 28/01/2019 01:06

Either the UK leaves in name only but nothing actually ever changes (al la the "deal") or there is a hard border and all the chaos which ensues.

Or the third option, which May’s Withdrawal Agreement encompasses as an option, is that NI stays close to EU rules and rest of the UK diverges. Which the DUP hate but is what will inevitably happen, even if it takes a while to get there.

New posts on this thread. Refresh page