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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

AIBU or is the risk of earthquakes from fracking just too high?

129 replies

IABURQO · 26/10/2018 18:28

I've always felt slightly concerned, but just seen about the earthquake. Fair play that even tiny earthquakes are being picked up so this can be both monitored and controlled. Overall though, if just 11 days can lead to an earthquake then surely this proves that fracking just isn't safe in our densely populated country and shouldn't be allowed?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-45976219

OP posts:
chillpizza · 28/10/2018 09:35

I think we are stupid to keep taking out from underneath ourselves. The old mine shafts collapsing and creating sink holes with vast space needing to be refilled to stop more sink holes and here we go again messing around with the very land we walk on. We need more renewables not more destroying the ground we walk on.

NotAnActualSheep · 28/10/2018 09:51

@flippit81 I assume the "secrecy" of Cuadrilla was that they didn't realise the quake was anything to do with them...or that there had been any effect on the casing. Which given our current knowledge seems naive but at the time was reasonable. And as you say, it seems they gave learnt their lesson and process is much more cautious now.

Also, I think the number of wells (or rather well pads) is what could make UK shale a non-goer, but we can't predict that until we know how productive the shale is...how feasible long distance drilling is and so on. No one thinks a pad every km or so, all drilling at the same time is acceptable, but equally that won't be allowed under the planning or environmental permitting systems (even if nationally significant infrastructure or permitted development). So if that is needed for commercial shale development, basically tough to the industry. As I understand, though, a lot can be done without that level of industrialisation.

flippit81 · 28/10/2018 10:05

How do you know that many wells won't be permitted! What protection is in place? I don't think there is any.

knittingdad · 28/10/2018 10:06

There are doubtless lots of clever people employed by the oil and gas industry to make something like fracking work.

I can't help but feel that if they had all been employed for the last two decades on renewable energy of various sorts instead that we wouldn't need to use any gas at all, whether from Russia, Qatar, Norway or Lancashire.

We have choices. Finding yet another source of fossil fuels is the wrong choice.

Effic · 28/10/2018 10:12

FGS - why, whenever there is a good debate on MN, with posters who actually know their stuff, does someone always start spouting rubbish about “posters being paid.” Is it so impossible to believe that there are high qualified, intelligent women who work in scientific fields & know their stuff?

Thank you to both sheep and flipit - really interesting and informative

flippit81 · 28/10/2018 10:55

Thanks Effic. BTW my previous comment to Sheep was meant to read as a question. Not as an exclamation . "How do you know that not too many wells will be permitted? "

flippit81 · 28/10/2018 12:36

It's a genuine question as local councils no longer have a say in planning decisions related to fracking. I only ask because of information like this: www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/17/fast-track-fracking-plan-by-uk-government-prompts-criticism

I would be very happy if this newspaper report is incorrect.

NotAnActualSheep · 28/10/2018 16:59

@flippit81 Fair question re permitting of wells. I work with planners a fair deal in an environmental capacity, and every planning application has to be determined on its own merits. And that has to take into account what is already in the area and whether any additional pressure on the roads, air quality, noise to local houses and so on is acceptable (effectively first-come- first-served). So an application for a well pad would need to take into account other wells (and anything else) that would use the same road network, would be visible from the same villages or whatever.

At some point there is generally a decision taken by the council that "enough is enough" and any further development would either be outright unacceptable on some grounds ( as outlined in planning policy), or would need to do so much to make it acceptable that it becomes uneconomic for the developer. So any application would be rejected. This approach works for housing, supermarkets etc, and also applies to energy developments. (Similar factors are considered by the Environment Agency for water resources etc when determining whether to grant a permit to frack...I.e. whether other users of water in the area would be affected by any fracking operation).

This is not the same as the council in Lancashire refusing the application and it being overturned on appeal. In that case it was decided that the council had mis-applied planning policy in the context of the application, and it should have (legally) been accepted ( I'm not a planner, so don't know the ins and outs). If there had been a "material" reason why the site was not acceptable, the inspector would have agreed with the council and the appeal would have been dismissed.

NotAnActualSheep · 28/10/2018 17:00

Again, as I understand, the Guardian article is a misrepresentation of what is proposed, and to say the council will have no say ( as Greenpeace/ the journalist are saying) seem to be deliberately not understanding what is proposed. Permitted development is development that is so "benign" it does not need planning consent. It is by definition acceptable if it meets certain requirements. At present, any industry (coal/ water/ geothermal/ wind energy for example) is allowed to drill a borehole to sample the rock, do tests on the rock to see if it could be suitable for certain purposes etc under permitted development. They need to follow certain restrictions on the location of the site, hours of drilling, how high the rig can be, how long the well pad can be there, and so on. They need to tell the council they are doing this, and the council can refuse under certain grounds, and say planning consent is needed. And they need to get a separate consent from the Environment Agency ( not planning consent). However, there is an exclusion at the moment that "petroleum" ( which includes gas) is excluded from this - I don't understand the history of this. However, as the actual drilling/ testing is exactly the same, the proposal ( again, as I understand it) is to bring these temporary test wells which are not fracked into the same regime. Any further work including more extended testing or gas extraction would still require planning consent, obviously.

It's not going to be a case of frackers rocking up in someone's back garden and drilling a well willy- nilly. The recent consultation has been looking to establish the safeguards that should be applied Re distance from houses, hours, timescales any pad can be in place and so on under permitted development. understand people's concerns with permitted development, and it's not ideal, but this kind of planning application should take a matter of weeks to be determined, and there is so much scrutiny at present that even such simple core wells ( that a coal company could do under permitted development) are taking 6-12 months, getting refused by councillors against the recommendation of their professional officers, going to appeal and being granted (following an expensive appeal process for the local authority/ taxpayer). When they could have been drilled, data gathered and the site restored in the same timescale. This doesn't seem like a sensible state of affairs.

I can't see why any developer would exercise their PD rights in a location where they wouldn't think they could eventually get planning permission for further work, personally.

flippit81 · 28/10/2018 20:25

Thanks sheep. That's quite a lot to take in. I'm not sure I fully understand so I will have to do some research.

So me let me check -exploratory drilling is to be regarded as a "benign" development so as such it will be subject to fitting into existing guidelines and EA regulation as opposed to having to get planning permission?

As it stands there is currently no regulation about how close drilling can be to homes / communities?

If local councils decide that enough is enough as there are too many wells , who gets to decide whether it goes ahead? If drilling is considered to be in the national interest will local objections be overruled?

NotAnActualSheep · 28/10/2018 21:58

Sorry flippit - I realised I do go on a bit..!

Its only what I take from what has been published by the government so far...I can't claim to know what is going on in their heads - not sure they do most some of the time. However, I see no reason why exploration of a type/ nature that is currently permitted for other industries can't also be permitted for shale. I think there would be a reluctance to go any further given public distrust of the industry at the moment - and I assume that the industry isn't expecting anything further. They will have to work in the communities and they presumably already have relationships with the councils/ regulators (as any developer would - not implying anything dodgy!) which they won't want to be soured by going over their heads/ taking liberties with their site choice etc.

There is regulation as to how close any industry can be to homes - in the sense that noise/ amenity/ lighting overspill/ traffic safety etc is controlled through planning or environmental permitting. This seems fair to me. It is the impacts that are controlled, and not the thing itself - so no set distance from homes generally. So if a developer wants to carry out drilling using a highly trained, super powerful mole (a hypothetical mole Grin - currently no such technology exists, and I think it would encourage mole-rights activists to blockade the site, quite rightly) there wouldn't be any reason to have it as far from houses as a bog-standard rig. I accept there may also be other reasons you would want to be some distance from homes other than just drilling, but at present the drilling noise (and construction noise) seems to act as a rule-of-thumb that limits how close sites can be.

If PD is allowed, I am assuming it would include limits as to rig height (and therefore noise), distance from properties, time of day they can drill, how long they are allowed to be on site, no tree felling etc etc like the current regulations for non-petroleum boreholes - they may put in more restrictions, I don't know.

For your third question, any planning application needs to be determined "in accordance with the development plan, unless material considerations indicate otherwise" (too much contact with planners again...). This may include things like the government policy in support of shale which has to be given great weight. However, it does not outweigh local considerations for environmental protection, amenity of communities and so on. Councils have a perfect right to say that a particular project is inappropriate/ in the wrong place, and this is supported many times by government inspectors at appeal. Cumulative impact is one of the reasons it can be refused.

It is a bit of a dark art as far as I'm concerned, but there is a process, and I'm happy that it generally strikes the right balance between national interest and local interest.

"Nationally Significant Infrastructure" is a different kettle of fish, and I personally don't think that is appropriate for small-scale individual shale projects proposed at the moment.

flippit81 · 29/10/2018 18:38

Sheep - I just found this - I knew I'd read something about what I thought was national interest but its Nationally Significant Infrastructure. The consultation has recently come to an end:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/727044/NSIP_Consultation_Document_Final.pdf ( a nice bit of light reading!)

Somewhere in the govt it is regarded appropriate to fracking operations - if this is passed what are the implications?

ForalltheSaints · 29/10/2018 18:43

We do not need fracking. Normal reasonable energy savings plus more renewables will easily bring more than fracking can.

worridmum · 29/10/2018 18:48

People saying that there are strong natural earthquakes would you be saying that if you had a radio active toxic waste site nearby but wait there are natural deposits of unirium in the world which is higher on the gagacounter so it should be fine and dandy right?

NotAnActualSheep · 29/10/2018 19:22

Phwoarrrrr. I love a good planning consultation ( rubs thighs...)Grin. Thanks flippit... I'll have a look at that tonight. I'm working on a NSIP project at the moment. (nothing energy related) and it is pretty different to "normal" planning. I'll see what the consultation says though.

Worridmum, I think a waste site would withstand a bit more than a 2M earthquake (although having watched yesterday's Dr Who with the Spiders, I'm not sure those would have been factored into its risk assessment... ) I'm liking the concept of a gagacounter though. A dial of how gaga my DH is driving me today.. or how adorable a baby's gurgles are, maybe? [Smile]

flippit81 · 29/10/2018 19:56

😂

SteamTrainsRealAleandOpenFires · 30/10/2018 01:14

BBC :- Fracking in Lancashire: 1.1 magnitude tremor halts work.

NotAllIndividuals · 30/10/2018 07:17

The work at the moment is exploratory. There is no certainty that the gas can economically extracted. If there isn't enough there, or gas prices stay low then the whole thing fizzles out. When I said that the technique isn't inherently risky what I meant was fracking doesn't automatically equal bad. There's been a really stir up against it and I can see why after some of the crap that went on in the USA but the press are being sensationalist focusing on the earthquake reports for something that wouldn't be called an earthquake in any other circumstances.

As far as I can find out the biggest environmental risk is moving and treating the fracking fluid, but that would only cause very localised impact if it spilled. The disruption of drilling and traffic to the site are the other big issues. The fact that it's fossil fuel development isnt great but until we wean ourselves off gas it's not ridiculous to look for domestic options.

I wish the discussion was more based in fact and less inflammatory, because I do want to know what the arguements are for and against, but real reasons not the hype.
You'd think the north west of England was about to slide down a giant crack and land in China the way the newspapers are reporting.

NotAllIndividuals · 30/10/2018 07:26

NotAnActualSheep don't get me started on the factual inaccuracies of Dr Who! That landfill was clearly in a karstic limestone system, whereas Sheffield proudly rests on coal measures. TCE, bizarrely listed as one of the contaminants has never been noted to cause giant spider mutation (though more research is necessary). Oh, and the hotel would probs have exploded from the methane build up before opening anyway.

NotAnActualSheep · 30/10/2018 09:26

The main difference with NSIPs ( nationally significant infrastructure projects), as it explains in the consultation, is that the decision is made by the secretary of state rather than the local planning authority ( council). The council is consulted during the process, and anyone else who wants to can be involved, as per a planning appeal, I suppose, but the decision is a national rather than local one. The application isn't determined against the local development plan, but against "national policy statements", with local considerations given weight. The overall need for the project doesn't have to be determined, though, as that has already been established by the policy statement...however, a load of consideration is given to the project being in the correct location/ minimising environmental impact etc during the determination.

If granted, the project is given a "development consent order" rather than planning consent, which is structured like an act of parliament and it is a criminal offence for the development to deviate from that...so stronger than planning consents which rely on the council enforcing them. The DCO also grants various other things that would otherwise need to be agreed by the developer separately, like land agreements ( but according to the consultation, not environmental permits, which would still need to be applied for separately). I can see this being controversial, as it allows compulsory purchase of land necessary, as long as the applicant justifies its necessity.

The benefit for the developer is that there is more certainty in the determination process...once submitted, it should take just over a year to reach a decision. At present, the planning process can take much more than that, and may need an appeal process etc, which makes it difficult to predict how long determination would take. However, pre-submission there is a much longer lead-in process than for applying for a planning consent (the one I've been working on started the formal process in early 2016 and is just starting examination...). This involves a lot of consultation with various bodies and local communities/ councils to ensure their considerations are addressed in the final application. It's also veeery expensive for developers, as it is a legally- based consent, so a lot of lawyer time, especially during the 6 month examination process... There's less flexibility than a planning consent too ( I.e. it's not very easy to amend certain bits of it once granted, by providing certain additional information to the council).

From the consultation for fracking sites, it seems they are looking at this only for production wells. So the current sites ( pnr etc) wouldn't fall under it, as they are appraisal wells. I hadn't understood that previously. However, they don't know what would constitute production... presumably not just carrying on producing gas from appraisal wells, as that would be a pretty minor change...but more wells on the same pad/ more pads/ additional infrastructure etc etc. That seems to be what they were asking for opinions on in the consultation. So it's difficult to tell how it would change the process, as it is not clear how large a project would become an NSIP.

I'm still uncertain whether it would be appropriate, as I thought the point of fracking is that there needs to be flexibility to add more wells/ restore sites to agriculture etc, rather than develop fixed infrastructure...but I'm not an expert, obviously. There is also the "erosion of local democracy" aspect, which is a fair concern, though large developments like power stations and wind farms already use this process and it seems to work to balance local interest and national need... ( though there is always the question with any project, especially fracking, whether there is truly national need, which needs to be regularly revisited on a policy basis).

NotAnActualSheep · 30/10/2018 09:32

My excuse for that epic post is I'm on a long and dull train journey.

I agree with notallindividuals entirely on the need for fact based discussion. The hype on both sides isn't helpful! And also glad to know it's not liable to lead to the whole giant spider thing. That would definitely be a big minus in my view. Grin

UtterlyDesperate · 30/10/2018 11:08

Thanks for some really helpful and informative posts, SheFlowersep

nornironrock · 30/10/2018 11:39

As I geologist, I'd encourage everyone to read through @NotAnActualSheep rpelies. They are very well put. I tend to get a little more upset!

Also, ask yourself this question. Where do you think pretty much everything around you comes from? If it isn't farmed it is from an extractive industry of one sort or another. Your houses, cars, phones, pots and pans, petrol etc etc all require resources from the earth. The mining (and other extractive industries) are heavily invested - particularly in areas such as the UK and Europe - in making sure that these activities are undertaken as safely and responsibly as possible. It simply isn't good business not to!

flippit81 · 30/10/2018 11:45

Thanks Sheep - that's an excellent summary!

So NSIPs are more tightly governed, that's got be a good thing.

If exploratory wells change to production wells there could be a significant infrasture change. A single well head can have a number of spurrs off it so maybe 8-10 wells could be producing from that well head and therefore the volume of waste etc would increase signficantly. Due to the depth of the shale in the UK they are looking to drill at multiple depths too which would also increase the number of wells from a single head. So an individual well head could be in operation for long period of time (I think fracking wells have a life time of about 6-12 years? I'd have to google that!). So a single well head may end up being in operation for a long time.

The strongest argument in favour of fracking seems to be gas security. UKOG reported that in order for fracking to produce 50% of our domestic gas requirements we would need to have 4000 wells drilled. Other reports say this is a low estimation and its closer to 6000+.

That's a lot of wells and a lot of waste. I think I'd rather take my chances with giant spiders!

flippit81 · 30/10/2018 12:26

Sorry not 50% of our supply but 50% of our imports.