To think we shouldn't move to a village with a poor performing primary school?

[KPjoenix]

DH and I disagree. We found a village that we both like BUT the village primary school gets dire results for no particularly reason. It's not in a deprived area. DH thinks we should go for it and hope the school improves or if not then try for a place in a neighbouring village...I think that's too risky. AIBU?

Have you looked at the results published on the school's website? There should be more detail there as the gov website looks at Reading writing and maths as combined. So a child that got expected/exceeding in 2/3 wouldn't be included. It is concerning for expected level, but not so much with exceeding IMO.

I think the 2018 SATs will be published in December, so the school may have started to turn things around. If they've had another poor year it's quite likely Ofsted will visit them in the not too distance future.

Due to complicated logistics mine have/had no choice but to go to a poor performing school (unless I home ed). My academically able child has still managed to do well, good SATs top sets at secondary. Really not such a happy tale for my children with SEN! It's a gamble I wouldn't take unless there was no other choice though.

Visit the school and see the reality rather than a snapshot on one day, or what the head wanted the inspector to see.

Why would what you see on a quick visit to a school be the reality over a snapshot of one day that ofsted see? surely you would get even less of a snapshot?

This require a name change but I'd appreciate any feedback:

www.compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk/school/123167/blewbury-endowed-church-of-england-primary-school

Will Pm you.

We had this with somewhere we looked at (not far from there!) and it was seemly down to headteacher absence we had been going on, on and off for years.

We didn’t buy the house

In that part of the world I wouldn’t assume you can go elsewhere - crazy amount of development means people can’t get into their own village school.

I sent dd to an Outstanding school. 3 years later and it’s in special
Measures. No guarantees with ratings.
Also ofsted is about to change what/ how they rate schools with a view to less exam chasing and a broader education. So your school might perform better.

If your only goal is for your kids to go to private secondary above standard of living that's sad

With only 150 pupils that is roughly 20 per year group so each child is worth 5% and you only need a few in a class to underperform on the day, or a class with quite a few children with SEN. Having said that I would want the school to clearly demonstrate that it was a blip. I would try to visit a few schools in the area, lots of them have open days around now and there might be some Christmas fairs soon too.

“We are really please to have 24 new children in the Foundation class”

I can see why it is failing with that sentence alone.

The size of cohort is taken into account in the ratings of progress scores - a small school can have a score of -3.0 and still be classified as making average progress, as it's generally reflecting only a single child making poor progress, which is enough to skew the numbers. Whereas for a 3 form entry primary, a progress score of -3.0 would be well below average, as it means that a large chunk of its cohort is not making good progress for the school to have a -3 average progress rating.

My point with the small numbers is that you cannot with all the statistical wizardry get away from the fact that just by random chance in a smaller cohort you might end up with skewed effects due to eight children struggling for different reasons. If you throw a dice twenty four times then you could, by chance end up with eight sixes even though you would only expect an average of four sixes. If you throw that dice 90 or 120 times then you are going to get much closer to the expected value of 1 in 6. A large standard deviation such as that school has means that it is harder to be accurate about whether it is actually substantially under performing, or actually around average - the standard deviation for that school straddles zero so it could still be average. This is before you consider that it will be a 95% confidence interval so there is still a 1 in 20 chance that it is much better or much worse than the figures are showing.

As a parent if I had a straight choice between a school which was on record as above average compared with on which was below average and in all other respects they were the same then obviously I would go for the above average one.

As a statistician though I know that particularly with relatively small sample sizes - and based on tests such as the SATs which are taken in a short time frame, there is a greater margin of error so I would want to get a wider picture.

It also of course depends on the child. We decided to move our (able even by MN standards) child from a school with a much greater emphasis on preparing and prepping for SATs (think tests every day for months) to one with a slightly more laid back approach because it is better for his mental health as he was getting very anxious. Stats offer one angle of insight into a school but they don't offer the full picture.

I wouldn't be happy with only 30% expected and 0% exceeding if that is usual for the school.

I would go for a different village. If you can it might be worth having a look at the different schools so you can get an idea of the styles of learning.

We moved our DC from one school to another, they had similar results (roughly same number at expected and some exceeding) but very different styles of learning.

There are several other schools in our area that have 0% exceeding, but very pressured environments. I wasn't happy with the idea of that either, seemed like the worst of all worlds!

shouldwestay makes good points about statistical skewing in smaller schools. But is the whole Ofsted report based on statistics? Isn't much of it based on classroom observations, facilities and maintenance, HT plans and goals for development, staff, pupil an dparent satisfaction etc? These are so revealing.

Looking at the school's website, the 2018 SATs results seem pretty positive. But it does also appear the class numbers are dropping, if they now have a 24 for the reception/Yr1 class combined, which is roughly how many per class are in the single year groups 2-6. It could be low birth years, not necessarily just parents opting for other schools.

But MinaPaws the last OFSTED was rated good in 2015, so this is just on the progress scores/KS2 attainment, which is why there could be skewing due to small sample sizes. As I said if I was planning to move somewhere as the OP is then yes it is a factor to consider. Digging further into the data it states that there were 13 pupils eligible for ks2 assessment. This is a tiny number statistically for any meaningful comparisons with larger schools. This might be because the school is awful and the other 17 have jumped ship or had SEN and didn't complete the SATs, or it could be that the PAN when that year group was in reception was 10 or 15 and the school has expanded over time.

By the way not the head teacher or anything, just interested in the stats!

The last OFSTED was conducted under the old framework, which was much more lax.

Yes, small cohorts do mean that the statistics are tricky but this is not a one off - there were two years on the trot of poor results. I'm a governor in a school with KS2 cohorts of that size and for the statistics to look like that, the progress is very, very poor indeed. These results don't look bad because of small sample size (which is accounted for by the Average/Below average/Above average rating) - they look poor because they are poor.

The 2018 SATS will be on the .gov.uk website around December, so they will be available before the deadline for primary applications.

I'm interested to know what the OP decided in the end? I am aware of this school and in a similar position. I would love to know if you chose this school and how it worked out @KPjoenix

That school is now rated inadequate by Ofsted, so seems the next Ofsted report was in line with the results. It went from good in 2015 to inadequate in 2019 from what I can see. Things can change very quickly!

If you’re looking at a private secondary school, is there a reason you’re not looking at a private primary school?

Our village primary scores low for literacy and numeracy despite a good Ofsted rating - it's because it's a small, lovely and nurturing environment, so has more than the usual number of children with SEN. Look at the school, book a visit and raise your concerns - there might well be a reasonable answer.

I can see it was made to join an academy trust after being graded inadequate, and I wondered if that had made a difference. We are moving house and it seems to be the only school with places. Not looking for private schools.

@StewedFruit I'm the OP with a name change. We didn't go for it in the end. The school has big problems and lots of the parents simply weren't fussed. We moved to a different village and I'm really glad we did as the school is MUCH better run.

My DB and DSIL moved my DN from a high performing primary at the start of Y6 as he hated it. It was one of those who go in lists of kids on times tables do everyone can see where each child is. Truly awful. He loved the new school, settled in well and was in a much better state when he started high school.
Check the school out -ask to visit. Look at the work being done and the atmosphere. This is a small school so a few pupils who are struggling will surely have a big impact on results.

Thanks OP for getting back to me. Glad to know what happened in the end. Can I just ask how you know the school still has big problems? I will visit, not sure we have much say in the final decision though, the schools around here seem very full. Has anyone had children that have been through an inadequate school and it's been OK in the end?