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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think we won’t allow our government to damage our country with a no-deal or a poor-deal Brexit?

8 replies

indistinct · 08/10/2018 08:47

No-deal means significant problems and possible failure for just-in-time manufacturers and other operators reliant on open-borders (ie all exporters/importers - 100,000s jobs if not millions), problems with aircraft permits and maintenance, problems obtaining medical isotopes, NI border etc... All starting Mar 2019.

A poor deal Brexit such as Canada+++ still results in closed borders. It would delay the effects to JIT manufacturers and NI until Jan 2020 due to the transition period but still risks mass unemployment and a return to violence in NI.

AIBU to think we the UK people should not and will not allow that to happen? Whether leaver or remainer, should we not be pushing for the least damaging Brexit possible (i.e. joining the EEA and/or EFTA and the Customs Union) or remaining altogether? Do we not owe this to each of our DC and the next generations as a whole? Why should they not benefit from a reasonably stable economy as many of us have?

The outcome can still be changed - whether remainer or concerned leaver - write to your MP, March on 20th October, talk respectfully and constructively with those that voted differently to you - urge them to act too, organise industrial action, etc.. No one should be idle on this issue, it is too important to ignore.

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RangeRider · 08/10/2018 08:59

Pointless writing to your MPs because it's their fault we're in this situation.If they'd all joined together at the start and represented the UK in achieving a good deal instead of voting against anything the govt came up with on principle and thinking about their party (Labour MPs) or their own egos (Boris et al) then we'd have been a strong force against the EU and could have got a good deal. As it they've shafted the PM, shown the UK to be incapable of acting as one, and have handed it to the EU on a nice shiny platter.
If we end up with a crap deal or no deal then blame Jeremy Corbyn for being divisive and blame Boris and his cronies for thinking about themselves. Don't blame the PM & those cabinet members (and the intelligent MPs on both sides) who have tried working for the UK - you can't work miracles when those around you are hellbent on destruction.

indistinct · 08/10/2018 09:23

@RangeRider
Thanks for your response. I’m not sure I agree with your analysis of how we arrived at our present situation. It seems to me obvious the EU were only ever going to offer 1 of the few pre-existing relationship options to a leaving member - they have to preserve the interests of EU nations and people. Our only hope of achieving the claims of 2016 leave campaign was to not trigger A50 and negotiate from within with the power of a UK leave vote backing the case for change.

Regardless of how we got here and despite writing to your MP not being guaranteed effective, are we not obliged to try and limit the damage to engineer the best future we can for our DC?

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scaryteacher · 08/10/2018 09:50

Why do you think those who voted leave want open borders? Iirc the EU is bound by the treaties to establish a close relationship with any member state that chooses to leave. The EU is seeking to retain control of what the UK does post Brexit. I voted leave, not to be perpetually sucked back in to the EU vortex. I would like to see a sensible immigration policy, not open doors to the EU.

I agree with Rangerider that between the MPs who wanted remain and keep scuttling over here to Brussels to undermine negotiations (looking at you Starmer), and those in the Lords who should recuse th themselves from voting, but don't, as their continuing pensions are tied to their on going support of the EU, we have been negotiating with one hand tied behind our back. Olly Robbins should be binned as well.

indistinct · 08/10/2018 10:30

@scaryteacher
Fair enough but with closed borders (for both people and goods) comes problems for JIT manufacturers + other EU importers/exporters and the many 100,000s they employ directly or indirectly through UK suppliers. Is it not better to move to EEA/EFTA+CU even though it still means FOM to give UK industries time (5-10 years minimum) to reorganise supply chains, find non-EU markets etc rather than force a potentially destructive immediate change? In the meantime, existing EU rules on self-sufficiency could be applied more widely to limit FOM of people. Even if this approach is taken there’s still the question of how the UK can take long-term advantage of its isolation from the collective bargaining position of being in the EU? Just saying it’ll take 50 years to see benefits isn’t good enough as there’s good reason to believe we’ll be systemically disadvantaged even after the short and mid term damage is done.

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Thisreallyisafarce · 08/10/2018 10:42

I'm not sure you can blame the government. They didn't vote leave.

scaryteacher · 08/10/2018 11:02

Indistinct Do you work for one of the larger corporations, as I see that every thread you have posted on in MN has purely been about Brexit, and frankly, you sound like a lobbyist for the JITs. I assume that any UK industry worth its salt will be trading externally to the EU already.

The whole point of Brexit was to unshackle ourselves from a supranational organisation that seems bent on ratcheting up the Acquis at all costs, and becoming an Empire, as Barroso said. If it were just a loose federation of trading states. then fine - NAFTA doesn't require a parliament, a military staff, a Court of Justice, or its own High representative for Foreign Policy, so why does the EU?

Neshoma · 08/10/2018 11:59

manufacturers have had two years to organised their stock. If it's just hit them now it's their problem.

The guy that heads Weatherspoons has organised the company, his suppliers and his stock - why can't other companies?

indistinct · 08/10/2018 12:54

@scaryteacher
Work for a large company (not JIT manufacturer) but my department and to a lesser extent the company will not be massively affected by Brexit. Post about Brexit because as a concerned parent I see it as duty to my DC (and UK DC generally) to prevent the worst of the damage to our country. Wish I got paid for this but sadly not - perhaps I should ask Nissan, BMW, JLR, Airbus, RR etc ... for recompense.

Even if you see the EU as an irretrievably over-dominant organisation that must be left/stopped at all costs, why leave in the most damaging ways possible (e.g. no-deal or Canada+++)? Don't agree with the assessment but even if I did, why not go for a staged exit via EEA+CU allowing your economy to adapt over time?

@Neshoma
To date the government is insisting that manufacturers will still get the benefits of frictionless borders. The uncertainty means that manufacturers might be spending money unnecessarily. If they knew now (with certainty) that no-deal was the outcome they'd probably look to reduce UK production and divert to spare EU capacity, buy land for additional stock space and put up internal pricing on UK produced output.

Whetherspoons is not a JIT manufacturer and sourcing retail products domestically or non-EU is quite possible as many nations produce beers, wines etc ... without significant additional cost over EU. Would be interested to see if Whetherspoons has managed to organise a guaranteed no EU supply chain for its food. I think that would be more difficult.

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