AIBU to wonder the future of smoking

[GloGirl]

I come from a 'smokey' family and know lots of people who've smoked - tried to quit, quit entirely, or never stopped. Happy to say I quit a few years back and will never take it up again now, my lungs wouldn't let me.

I remember having an argument with someone a couple of years ago that in our lifetime (So another 50 years) we will see the banning of smoking entirely in the UK. I think the governments have done a great job banning smoking in work environments, raising the prices etc and I can see the effects of those policies reducing smokers.

I just wondered what you saw the future of smoking to be now? Would it ever be banned? Are there any more measures to take which could reduce the future further?

Would it ever be banned?

By who? The government who rake in the taxes? I doubt it.

I could imagine it happening but I think even more likely is it will just die out. So few young people take up smoking now, restrictions on sale and advertising have really worked. I expect by the time I’m old, almost no young people will ask the industry won’t be viable.

I don't know how most people can afford it. I saw it's almost a 10er a pack these days! It was half that when I smoked and I still managed to set fire to £140 a month.

I think £10 a pack will surely see the end of it. That’s crazy money, if you are a heavy smoker. £70 a week??? Jesus. I could have four seriously fancy gym memberships for that money. Or a gym membership, plus a bunch of beauty treatments.

I think people may not quit altogether over cost, but imagine they will significantly cut down. A 20 a day habit is just too much money.

I can't see a ban working because you will get people buying them on the black market and smoking in their own homes. Then what do you do? Criminalise it? We don't have the police resources to start raiding smokers homes and arresting them! As a pp said, the more likely scenario is it eventually dies out but I don't see that happening in my lifetime.

HMG and specifically Her Majesty's Treasury carefully calculate the balance of smokers quitting versus the revenue from taxes on tobacco to ensure that they "win" overall. Whilst HMG will make good nosies and spend some money encouraging smokers to quit, I don't believe that they actually would ban tobacco outright until they can find something else to replace that tax income. It's a delicate balance for them and is more fully explained here

fullfact.org/economy/does-smoking-cost-much-it-makes-treasury/

*noises.

As an aside, what kind of mid-90s software is this where posters can't edit their posts for a few minutes after posting?

I read an article last week saying they reckon Bristol will be the first smoke free City in the UK - I think as early as 2024. Not due to law but because people have really cut down / stopped and people aren't starting as much.

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/when-will-your-city-go-smoke-free-new-research-predicts-will-be-first-english-city-to-kick-the-habit-a3933036.html

I was very surprised to find my neighbour's sons and all their mates from the local grammar all smoke, I thought vaping was more trendy these days. I have no idea how they afford it tbh, I couldn't if I wanted to!

Smoking will die out. But i worry about the number of youngsters vaping and the long term impact. They are really just guinea pigs

The younger son thinks his parents have no clue unless they both have anosmia, I'd say they suspect...!

@BananaBonanza, yes, I've seen some very young kids with vapes, not even secondary school age, it's scary.

May well see smoking rates hit near 0% in 50 years in the UK, other countries who have a monopoly on the tobacco industry no chance.
Even in the US, states need people to keep smoking in large numbers for at least the next 30 years to help pay back debts they've accrued selling Tobacco securitization bonds, backed by future payments received from the Master Settlement Agreement.
Those payments are contingent, in large part, on cigarette consumption, hence the push to tax and ban vaping to stop states defaulting on their debts.

My partner spends £8.50 every day on fags. If it went up to £10 then £10 it would be. It's annoying it doesn't bother me him smoking. But I don't think raising prices will deter people especially. Most people have that oh fuck it with fags and will still buy them but moan about the price later kind of attitude. It's good that less teens are smoking though

Youth vaping is not really an issue, data from ASH shows....
E-cigarette use is confined almost entirely to those who currently or have previously smoked tobacco cigarettes. Of those who have never tried or used tobacco cigarettes, 87% haven’t tried e-cigarettes, 7% are unaware of e-cigarettes, 5% have tried them just once or twice and less than 1% use them with any regularity.
These low levels have been found consistently across all waves of the youth survey.
Youth smoking rates continue to fall to record low levels which is what really matters.

We also got to the position where people who do smoke are polite about it. They don't smoke in your home or around your kids. A relative came in a started vaping in my house right next door to me. I hated it, felt it was incredibly rude, but also felt it was inhospitable to tell her to stop. I don't want the "it's harmless vaping" to lead back into an increase in the social acceptability of smoking/vaping

I can smell it.

I know what you mean bananza, but, if it’s as safe as it seems, I’ll take a smell I don’t like over people smoking themselves to death further away from me. Polite people wouldn’t vape over you either though.

Money wouldn’t of bothered my mum. She was a die hard smoker. She died of lung cancer due to smoking. Everything came second, and she would do what she could to carry on smoking. In today’s money her smoking bill would be 200 pounds a week!
I’m relieved that smoking is becoming passé amongst teenagers. Unfortunately vaping is the new cool which frightens me!

I buy a packet a month for £9 but I'm lucky that I only fancy the odd one with a drink. I hate vaping! People do it constantly!

I remember my parents saying they'd quit when the price of cigarettes reached £1 a packet. Guess what?

@palmereldritch the real problem with the figures you've quoted is actually there's no information on the number who have previously tried tobacco and are now vaping. Also there's no info on whether those who vape are hardened smokers (for whom gaping is a good thing) or once or twice users who then start vaping (bad very bad). Thats makes them deeply nieve statistics.

Polite people wouldn’t vape over you either though.

But it's "harmless" so why shouldn't they

We used to think that about smoking too

I too think it will die out .but not everyone pays full price for cigarettes and tobacco my local shop sell knock off ciagrettes for £3 a packet, dh smokes tobacco he spenda about £15/20 /week.

I switched to vaping when 20 fags cost 8.50. I picked some up for a friend recently and it was over 11! I think the price will stop some people. I wonder how all the anti smokers will feel about paying more tax to make up the shortfall as more people quit.

I wonder how all the anti smokers will feel about paying more tax to make up the shortfall as more people quit.

Fewer smoking related hospital visits though? Fewer deaths too, so we’ll all live even longer so that will cost more money too! Quick, reduce the price! (Not really).