To think London will become a ghostown

[dearreme]

People of my parents age could get a nice house in zone 2 on one wage. People of my age if they bought 10 or so years ago could get a little flat on two full time wages. And of my friends any that didn't buy have now left for other cities or are planning an exit.

Younger people I work with now are planning on never even moving to the city as they know the quality of life is so much better in other cities.

What will happen to london? It seems like much of K&C has been purchased by people as a store of money and is left empty.

Less jobs are apparently being created now, with employers favoring other locations in europe or the UK.

“People of my parents age could get a nice house in zone 2 on one wage.“

Not in my experience. Nice(ish) parts of London have always been expensive.

Have you been into London recently? There’s absolutely no evidence whatsoever it’s becoming a ghost town, it’s bloody heaving. There will always be people who can afford to love there. People who want to be in London will adapt according. They’ll buy with friends, stay in flats instead of houses, upgrade to a 3 bed rather than 4 bed. Some people will be priced out, some will still have plenty of money, both partners will work full time where as before only 1 might have worked or families will live multi generationally. There’s still a huge amount of work in London paying salaries which enable people to afford to live there. And ultimately people have ties to London, it’s their home city, where their families are and they won’t want to move.

How will London become a ghost town? Property prices are a function of demand, if nobody can afford to buy them prices will fall.
They’re still buying...

High property prices has been a fact of life for two decades in London. It's not become a ghost town yet.

Yes, it's expensive but it is probably unnecessary to be overdramatic.

It is still the UK's only world city, remains the national centre of financial services, the legal sector, the tech sector, cultural industries, advertising/media/film/tv, tourism and politics and the population continues to grow.

I think after Brexit, the economy will take a nosedive but really, it is much more likely to decimate small towns with manufacturing industries than big cities where there are a much bigger range of industries and so more options.

If you want a big house and a garden, then yes, it's probably not for you but not everyone prioritises that.

Not where I grew up in H&F, the houses were affordable.

The wages in london and the cost of housing are so out of sync. I don't know anyone that could afford their house if they had to buy it today.

Some people will always live there, but maybe not settle and just for a short time.

I was in london last weekend, and it did seem less busy than I would have expected over a summer weekend actually.

I think London is probably the exact oppposite of a ghost town. Have you been there?

Re jobs "Strongest growth in 'City' jobs coming from outside London, report finds" www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/07/05/strongest-growth-city-jobs-coming-outside-london-report-finds/

The super high prices in london are very new thing, only since they started printing money and inflated the asset bubble to epic levels.

i find it bizarre how much busier london is now, you literally cannot move in some places for sheer amount of people. unless they are all tourists

London is indeed heaving. Demand outstrips supply. London will never be a ghost town. I think you're maybe a little confused.

Ermmmm no.

Are you sure you went to London and not Llandudno OP?

"The super high prices in london are very new thing, only since they started printing money and inflated the asset bubble to epic levels."

This isn't true, it has always been more expensive to buy in London and especially in desirable areas. H and F has had high prices in some areas for ever, but in general since the 1980s.

London won't become a ghost town, people will adapt and move to other areas.

One income used to be the norm, especially as women's earnings weren't included for mortgage applications, in many places its now necessary to have two incomes to buy.

What? London a ghost town? You must be joking, it's absolutely rammed with people, traffic, tourists, businesses, retail.... The place is so bloody heaving, even at night, it makes me want to move to the Outer Hebrides.....

I wonder if theOP is referring to a city called London is some far away galaxy.

I grew up near H and F - when we bought our first house 40 years ago, we couldn't afford to buy there - a house in Shepherds Bush was £12000 and so we had to move slightly northwards and bought a house for £8000. Those amounts look so tiny now!

If it came to that the housing market would crash and everyone would be buying property again.

I don't think that this is anything new?

I bought my first house in the M25 in 2003 and it took 2 wages to raise a deposit and pay the mortgage. Certainly couldn't afford someone more central within Tube zones (had a child so schools were a consideration)

My parents couldn't live closer to Central London than zone 5 and dad was on more than average London wage.

I don't see evidence of a ghost town. There are flats in buildings owned by people living overseas but London has excellent public transport so commuting from one borough to another isn't hard.

Travel to London in a month when schools are out. Or travel on the tube. Plenty of people around.

London will always be busy, full of tourists and day trippers, but yes, some areas that are full of properties bought by investors are often like ghost towns at certain times. You sometimes walk past the big blocks of luxury flats at night and there’s barely a light on.

I think the city will change a lot. Families and long term residents will move out. There will be a lot more people living in the city short term for work or airbnbing, so no real communities.

I think it’ll be like Venice which is utterly packed to the point of collapse, yet hardly anyone lives there anymore. It’s like a theme park.

H&F and K&C have long been very expensive. You do know there's more to London than west London, don't you?

There's other areas in London than Kensington and Chelsea

London will always be desirable because its awesome in many ways. The City is attractive to thousands and thousands of workers, as is Canary Wharf. Then you have other areas which obviously employ many many more. People will ALWAYS want to live in London. The cultural mix, the fantastic food, nightlife, it's always changing - interesting and exciting. It may be that those starting out will have to house share, which I did ten years ago and it was brilliant. Not everyone will be able to buy a place in London. Yes, it's different now compared to two generations ago but isn't everything?

Not sure what you're really saying. London will never be "a ghost town".

Why on earth would families and long term residents move out??

Actually I think the OP has got a point, if won’t become a ghost town but I think in 10 years it will be quite different. The economy is clearly heading for a dip, everyone I know who is trying to sell is either struggling or taking a chunk off (SW & SE London & Kent & Surrey). Admittedly none of these properties were suitable for ftb’s where the market is still competitive if priced accordingly.

Wasn’t migration from London for 30/40 year olds at record levels last year? Anecdotally 5 of my neighbours/friends are in the process or have moved & where as traditionally they would have moved to the home counties & commuted 4 out of 5 of them are heading to other cities & relocating jobs. Apparently the difference in wages is not that bad & more than made up by the improvement in quality of life. These people all have good budgets too but don’t want what they can afford if they stay.

DH & I are Londoners & it’s useful to have family on hand whilst DC are young but we plan to leave. I just the prices don’t rise too much elsewhere in the meantime!

If people are genuinely “struggling” to sell (and there’s certainly no evidence of that round here), they simply won’t sell...
They won’t abandon the property unsold, and if they’re forced to reduce the price; then the buyer has got a bargain and the house continues to be occupied?
Your logic escapes me, Missbrick

YANBU OP - it seems like the logical outcome of sky-high prices, but I have to say it doesn't seem to be happening! DH and I bought our house in a grotty but now trendy part of zone 3 five years back so we've done OK, but if I was a first time buyer I'd look at leaving. London is a great city, but it's not that great, IMO.

Also for most buying now in London they won’t see anything like the price growths in the last decade or so.