To think we are heading towards a huge recession

[jnfrrss]

Homes and retail sales down 3% last month. Pay isn't keeping up with inflation. Backoffice staff are quickly being replaced with robots.

The last recession was only "saved" by printing billions to bail out the banks and this seems to have just caused a huge spike in assets like bonds and homes. None of the issues there have really been solved just delayed and they can't lower rates or stimulate like they did back in 07-08. The public debt has grown huge during the "austerity" times. Every day you hear of new job cuts and that's not to mention all the jobs that aren't replaced after normal attrition. Then there's brexit and the huge amount of people on interest only mortgages.

Or aibu and things are looking good?

We're in for something. It might be a bit bigger than a depression. Not only do we have all the economic problems that never went away, but the role of technology is increasing. I don't buy the optimism of the 'new jobs will appear' crowd. They aren't, and won't. The whole point of technology is to remove human jobs, providing greater efficiency and lower costs. There are two ways of dealing with the fallout: either share all resources equitably, following Harold Wilson's 70's vision of reduced work hours and greater leisure for all, or gross inequality. Which one is Britain more likely to pick I wonder not very hard.

baxter

People are expecting Brexit to cause some kind of economic collapse in the UK. They are preparing accordingly.

I work in a very large corporate firm. Investors aren't investing, they're either investing elesewhere, biding their time to see what Brexit brings, or trying to jettison assets.

We are £2m down on income compared to Q1 last year. If that continues redundancies will start.

I still can’t believe a British government is willingly going to push us into recession for an ideology based on lies.

Lol @ economic collapse because of Brexit

Yes, I've heard this. I'm on some investment newsletter through work and the warnings are getting more strident in the last 6 months of dismal times ahead again.

Wrong - The Tories have already chosen the option of gross inequality. Instead of bursting the crazy housing bubble and reducing the debt, they have pumped it up, so it is going to be catastrophic when it bursts. So much for being the party of good management/fiscal conservatism. They have been worse than NuLabour and that is saying something!

baxterboi
It really doesn’t matter if Brexit is good for the UK or not. Economic collapse is unlikely, however the important thing here is public perception of Brexit. People are expecting it to fail. Therefore the recession will be caused by the will of the people.

err no, we are doing just fine thanks unless you want to talk us into a recessions that is..

The figures were bad mainly due to the abysmal weather, we will see much better results next quarter. Property sluggish but other areas are doing well.

No need for such pessimism.

Nice to see some sensible replies!

There are two ways of dealing with the fallout: either share all resources equitably, following Harold Wilson's 70's vision of reduced work hours and greater leisure for all, or gross inequality.

It will continue towards inequality as that's the direction we must be in.

Many seem to be saying the exact same I'm hearing in my industry and we can't be all in the same.

I do wonder about the paying down debts, money is being inflated away so aren't we better to hold assets even if they have debt?

Houses in the south east were ridiculou a few years ago and they've just increased since then. Agree the bubble should have slowly been deflated but instead it's been rapidly blown up even more.

I think you will find that California is now in 5th place, with India and France snapping at the Uk 's heels for 7th and 8th.
And yes, we are heading for another recession, and I think it will be as bad if not worse than the last.
Major employers are giving signals that they are cutting jobs, for example Jaguar Landrover. The Japanese car firms are sounding very cautious, hedging their bets against a hard brexit.
The rise in automation is cutting jobs left, right and centre, you only have to look at the rise in self service checkouts in Tescos to see this in action, for example.

Add into the mix the huge levels of personal debt, often secured on homes and a government that does not believe in public investment. Plus the very real possibility of crashing out of the EU with no deal and reverting to wto rules.
All this = a shit storm.

Yeah, I think we've had 10 years of stagnation, bumping along the bottom just above the line for recession, as austerity has basically prevented the economy from being stimulated into fresh new growth. Now Brexit is likely to create chaos and a new downturn. It doesn't feel like we're headed to the good times, does it?

I accept what other posters have said BUT I work in Oil and Gas and after 5 years of serious rock bottom activity things are suddenly and rapidly improving.

the oil industry is usually a couple of years ahead of general economy on picking up as activity in this sector tends to have a trickle down. So it could mean that everything else is only a year or two away from picking up again too. (also, my company is a non UK owned multinational who have zero plans to leave the UK following Brexit)

err no, we are doing just fine thanks unless you want to talk us into a recessions that is..
This is hilarious. How does anyone 'talk us into a recession' FFS.

I think we are due another downturn the record levels on the stock market are unsustainable. It’s been the longest period of uninterrupted growth apart from a small correction at the beginning of this year. Its been pumped up by economic manipulation in the the wake of the last recession. Come the downturn there will be no levers left to pull so it will be very severe. Especially with the timing of Brexit which even ardent Brexiteers admit will cause at least a temporary “hiccup”

Am currently in the process of selling stocks and keeping cash.

People are expecting Brexit to cause some kind of economic collapse in the UK. They are preparing according

I think economic collapse is over stating it - increase in food costs and things like fuel seem very likely so many people are trying to pay down debt and increase savings now to better weather that if it happens.

Seems to have been stagnation rather than recovery from last recession I suspect it will be more of the same.

Oil and gas are not long term options though. They will make economic matters worse in the long run. I've seen reports saying that all current unused reserves need to stay in the ground to avoid catastrophic global warming, and that will not have no impact on human economies everywhere.

I know we're on the road for gross inequality, that's what I meant by my crossed out comment, and like Niles I really struggle with the idea that some people prefer this and the associated suffering it will bring. It doesn't help that the political left has gone deep-delving for sunlight in places where it don't shine.

Of course we are. It boggles my mind that people still think Brexit will bring anything but recession and economic hardship for great swathes of the population. Are people really not noticing what is going on?

High Street collapses, food prices rocketing, firms quietly relocating jobs to the EU, making redundancies or just investing elsewhere completely. It's happening now.

Every day you hear of new job cuts

I was under the impression we had record rates of employment at the moment.

How much are Momentum paying these days by the way?

Did the last one actually finish?

Wages are rising faster than inflation at the moment....

"err no, we are doing just fine thanks"

How blind do you have to be to the increasing levels of poverty and inequality to believe this?

Look at these two graphs. The first compares labour productivity to wages. Wages are seriously lagging behind productivity. So where is that money going? Graph 2 gives you the hint of an answer.

Isn't that interesting when you hear top media moguls whine about Britain's low productivity.

"I was under the impression we had record rates of employment at the moment."

Employment on a precarious zero hours contract at the lowest wage that an employer can get away with paying can't be compared to employment in a decent job, with decent pay and conditions. All jobs are not equal, we need to look at the type of jobs that are being created.

wrong - these are global trends, our productivity is lower than other countries!