To think at some point none of us will work

[BrightonCalling]

Do you think that because of automation at some point it just wont be possible for the majority of people to be employed?

If that happens, how will we need to restructure society/the way we live?

I'm currently marking MSc papers with a similar question.

Jobs will change but full automation is so far away and so unforeseeable that predicting it is a pointless exercise.

Jobs will change no doubt but the machines will need to be built. If they're built by other machines then those building-machines need to be built and so on.

Technology can't research itself. Writing AI algorithms and applying them to real life takes a specific skill set as does selling and marketing this automation.

Besides which, as more and more things move online and automated (drones delivering online grocery orders, perhaps automated as the fridge tells the supermarket which products you have used) there will always be some products where the human interaction is what's important. Last week we ordered a new car. We could have specced it online etc but we went to the showroom to go through the options list with a person. We even paid a little extra so that we can collect the vehicle ourselves from the factory.

Jobs will change but humans won't become obsolete.

Interesting, thank you!

But the jobs you describe (researching technology, building machines) are skilled work.

What about the masses of people in unskilled labour? Supermarket tills? Bar staff?

Even things like teaching. Apps are so good these days, surely we arent too far off just having childreb educated through screens?

I would love to see mass automation and then the profits shared equally among a population all working far less hours and enjoying far more leisure time! Sadly I worry that's a pipe dream and the reality will be CEO's getting richer and richer while unemployment skyrockets and the economy suffers

We're a long way away from any kind of computer replacing a teacher. Although software exists which enables accurate setting of work for students and measuring understanding, it's so far away from replacing a teacher that by the time it arrives, it won't be recognisable.

Teachers need to facilitate learning, enable discussion and create certain mindsets. Tech hasn't begun to be able to do this and I doubt it will in my lifetime.

The two jobs you mention (bar and checkout) are very different. Checkout people are being phased out to some degree. The scan as you shop as well as self-service checkouts (noticeably less prominent in 'better' supermarkets). However, when you go to a good bar, the interaction between the barman and the customer is an important part of the experience. My favourite drink (dirty gin martini) starts from the second the glass is filled with ice and soda and sat on the backbar to begin cooling. The experience of ordering it begins with a smile or acknowledgement. By the time alcohol's being measured or shaken I'm excited. In this situation (like buying a car) human interaction is important and perhaps even key.

You are right that automation is more of an issue for skilled work but there will be unimagined unskilled work required in the future.

@wellBeehivedWoman

Communism? Fuck that?

fewer hours

@mellowW yes, fewer - sorry! Perhaps I need a grammar lesson from an excellent teaching app

I think there is a balance to be struck between full communism and the scenario I outlined; if automation makes unskilled labour irrelevant, it isn't the fault of those who previously provided that labour. Not everyone can have a professional job, and they shouldn't be condemned to poverty because automation has taken their place in the workforce.

Even professional jobs will suffer. I'm in the legal profession and a huge amount of what I do could be done by automation, and surely will one day. What's the solution - that the managing partners exclusively benefit from the hike in profits while half the lawyers are made redundant? That can't be right.

If automation is going to render a large proportion of jobs obsolete, I think it's only right that at least part of the profits that automation generates should be used for the benefit of those whose jobs have been replaced. This could be done by an increase in wages but reduces hours - so a week's pay for 2 days of work for example, with the remainder of the job done by automation. CEOs and business owners and others at the top benefit from a percentage of the increased profits, with the rest used to ensure that the remainder of the population have enough to survive despite doing significant less work.

Going back to 70s we were told we would only work 3 days a week as machines would take our jobs when we grew up and we would have time for leisure...
Skillsets will change but that has been the natural evolution of our lives. Manual labouring jobs have been replaced by call centres etc. We will still need to fund living.

"Perhaps I need a grammar lesson from an excellent teaching app"

Natural Language Processing is my real area of expertise. Parsing language is a million miles away from being useful in any real language teaching application using AI or similar. At best you can get an app which are simply man-made lessons but the actual teaching, the real-time adaptations of a lesson to match the student's needs is a long way away.

How do you define "right" when you say it's right that those whose positions are made redundant should get some money or benefit from the changing job market? Why is it not an individual's responsibility to ensure they have a relevant skillset to continue being employed?

Do you mean fair? The most important lesson I ever learnt is that life's not fair but those who make success happen for them accept this and move on.

Yes, lots of legal work will become automated - finding suitable laws and arguments etc but actually putting this forward in court probably won't. The smart people will see this coming.

There will still be jobs mopping up sick and wiping backsides

Why is it not an individual's responsibility to ensure they have a relevant skillset to continue being employed?

Because not every person is capable of this. Some people, due either to lack of ability or lack of opportunity. will never have the skills to do anything other than unskilled labour. That doesn't mean they deserve unemployment and poverty.

Furthermore, if automation replaces jobs and an equivalent number of non-automated jobs don't simultaneously become available, it doesn't matter how skilled a person is - there still won't jobs for them.

Yes, as I said, life isn't fair.

People don't deserve to live in poverty but the attitude that 'you've done well so give me a share' pisses me off.

Not everybody is going to be capable of doing a skilled or professional job. What happens to those people?

Fewer jobs and more poverty will lead to riots and chaos. Who is going to buy the goods that robots make if nobody has money to buy them?

What happens to those people?

Maybe the robots will decide they can’t be arsed to cook and clean

Most people are bright and industrious, why would most not be able to work in the fields that support automation?

One theory is that this is all being engineered. The 1% will live in gated palaces and the rest will be peasants queuing up for a daily bread ration. I keep reading that in the Daily Mail comments section! It usually starts off with “New World Order” and somehow they always manage to get immigration into it.

Grasslands - but most people aren’t that bright are they really?

wellBeehivedwoman - but staff will be needed to work in the places you are spending your extra leisure time. And lorry drivers to transport goods there, and people to mend the roads the lorries are on, and and and...

Whole job categories have disappeared throughout the history and here we are, still working in jobs that were unheard of a hundred years ago.

I was reading an article about the Citizen’s Wage. It was making it sound most attractive. Then it occurred to me that the jobs that would be left are exactly the ones people would be delighted to receive a citizen’s wage to avoid having to do - ie looking after old people.

You don’t need to be a genius to work the instrumentation aspect, or control room. Small parts will need manufacturing so machinist type work. I was under the impression it would actually employ more people overall, safety being the biggest overall gain.

What Sparkly said - there's a reason you didn't learn about the thousands of women left unemployed after the automation of the telephone exchanges, or about those tens of thousands left unemployed when animal locomotion was replaced by vehicles...

I hate AI and the thought of robots - when i ring up with a query i really do want to speak to a human, not have to repeat myself all the time because the machine doesnt' get' my accent. Robots cleaning the hospitals will be sad to see i think.. but it will be the norm in a few years time,
i suppose the robots will have to be maintained, those jobs will be around, but most will disappear. its a sobering thought and scary too.

There are fewer jobs around - mainly zero hours contracts on minimum wage. And admin jobs can have hundreds apply for one job.

My parents are always saying that you could leave a job on Friday and walk into a new one Monday. Not the case now.

A lot of jobs have been outsourced overseas. One NHS Trust I worked at outsourced all the dictation (audio typing) to the Philippines. The remaining medical secretaries were downgraded a pay band. Another Trust has new auto-dictation software. No need for most of the medical secretaries now!

And the medical secretaries cans switch to medical coding in the records department. Outsourcing will come to an end eventually.

Medical secs are just one example.

There are loads of jobs for baristas at the zillions of coffee shops. Until they get automated. We will just be a nation of people selling fresh coffee to each other!