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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To worry about falling house prices

297 replies

Ll81 · 11/02/2018 11:53

They say prices in central London have been falling for a while and this is rippling out to the rest of the country. Also lots of talk about raising interest rates and they could also be another downward pressure on prices along with lots of EU nationals leaving.

Anyone else worried that falling prices may mean many that have bought in the last few years maybe stuck in ne?

OP posts:
milliemolliemou · 14/02/2018 14:17

thought there was a proposal that foreign investors needed to be resident in the UK for years before being allowed to buy up thousands of flats in major cities. This may help. Stamp duty increase has already had people releasing huge numbers of flats on to the market. Accidental owners and those who have bought a couple to see them through retirement may also be reconsidering.

scaryteacher · 14/02/2018 14:49

aRespectable You are intimating very strongly that all accidental landlords won't keep their properties in the current market. You are wrong. I know several accidental landlords who let their homes out whilst they are posted elsewhere with HM Forces, as we were. One size doesn't fit all with accidental landlords, and circumstances are different for everyone.

I'm not confused; the market changes and the tax changes will not impact us before we move back to the house. If only 20% of btl landlords are selling up, then the other 80% evidently still think they can turn a profit, albeit marginal. Student landlords will keep the houses on, and if they don't, then the government has a massive problem on its hands with housing all the second and third year undergrads, as there aren't enough places in Halls for everyone.

All very well having a level playing field for ftbs, but not every house that is rented out is suitable for ftbs, and so won't be available to them if they come onto the market.

I'd rather have money in bricks and mortar than other sectors; makes sense to me.

aRespectableBureaudeChange · 14/02/2018 14:51

Grannie: do read my links - the market is more than you and your mates and will change around you whether or not it affects you personally in the short term.

You clearly don't have a grasp of tax changes coming and Btl mortgages and desposit ratios being affected by other Btl landlords in distress (20% in serious arrears) accidental landlords will not be saving the market this time.

You inheriting a mortgage free property is irrelevant.

As prices reduce the people you rely on to rent out to will just buy their own property. Things will carry on changing as Btl are being taxed until they pop going forward. YOU may still be ok, but it will still carry on changing around you.

aRespectableBureaudeChange · 14/02/2018 15:30

Goodness scary. It I'll be different going forward. I'll say it again : going forward.

The people you know doing ok would have a very different set of options available to them now.

Extra 3% stamp duty, finance remortgaging options taking tax into account, loan to deposit ratio changing as the landlord down the road sells cheaper etc- it has changed.

Lots of money has gone into private sector building into university accommodation - not just the halls available etc and is the latest thing lemmings are heading into and that IFAs are promoting. Looks like that landscape is changing in he future.

That's the thing : things change and being able to react to a change is how a business survives and also the reason an investor risks losing their money - don't react to stocks or house market downturns.

Difference between a business that can cut their losses, react, sell, change tactics and why some BTL will be repossessed as they sit there saying 'I understand bricks and mortar'.

Oh and the 80% that aren't in distress or selling - I'm afraid quite a lot of them don't actually grasp the situation, yet.

Remember Btl and owned outright landlord are different, before you get muddled again.

So, market previously supported by people not accepting market offers and deciding to rent out. Won't be happening - yes an inherited property maybe, but as values drop people may decide to sell rather than hold on.

Exactly what the new taxation rules designed to create and long overdue.

Desperatelyseekingsun · 14/02/2018 15:49

I think there are significant differences between accidental landlords and BTL landlords, the first group is I would imagine smaller than the latter. BTL lanlords buy properties to let out and make a profit often with specific morgages if needed. Accidental lanlords have for various reasons ended up with houses that they don't need to live in, these houses may not have morgages or in my case may for several years be serviced using a standard pre acquired morgage. As BTL were bought solely to run at profit they would I imagine be more ,likely to be disposed of if running at a loss. We would keep our house regardless of occupancy so the state of the market matters less to us.

sothatdidntwork · 14/02/2018 15:55

On the other side of the equation the costs of letting are tending to increase - eg new licensing schemes in some areas.

Of course if you can increase the rent an ll may do that rather than sell the property. So it may depend to some extent on whether rental demand holds up.

My impression is that a lot of property has come onto the market recently nearby, but that is just an impression, and you don't know whether it's the usual New Year effect.

ohfortuna · 14/02/2018 16:09

As prices reduce the people you rely on to rent out to will just buy their own property
many landlords dont seem to realise this, they seem to feel that they will always be able to call the shots and control thehousing stock

ohfortuna · 14/02/2018 16:14

Accidental landlords
this is such a misnomer, no one accidentally becomes a landlord

SouthLondonDaddy · 14/02/2018 16:33

I have been househunting in South London for about 6 months.

I see lots of cases of asking prices being reduced multiple times, but that doesn’t tell us much – it could simply be that the initial expectations were unrealistic. The real question is how today’s prices compare to last year’s – and I mean actual transaction prices, not asking prices.

I must say this is the first time, in many many years in London, that I have seen a few (nice) properties on the market for less than they were bought over the last 12-24 months. I have seen 4 such cases (checking historical sale prices on rightmove), and the reductions corresponded to a 0.5 to 1.5% annualised reduction; not exactly a crash, but still a new phenomenon, which would have been unthinkable years ago.

My two cents is that:

Volumes have reduced and will continue to reduce (ie fewer properties on sale), mostly because lots of people would rather not sell at the current prices.

First-time buyers are in a good position compared to, say, 5 years ago: prices have finally stopped skyrocketing and there is less competition from buy-to-let “investors”. Yes, I know the house price to avg income multiples are still crazy, but at least double-digit annual increases in house prices are a thing of the past.

(This is all theoretical because I don’t have the dough) but it’s certainly not the time to “invest” in a BTL.

However, it can still make sense to buy: unless you expect dramatic house price crashes, buying can still be cheaper than renting even in moderate downturns. The details depend, of course, on the specifics of each case.

It’s pointless to read too much into the price of just a single property. Even during the housing boom, two very similar properties could easily sell for different prices, for lots of legitimate reasons: dumb luck (or lack thereof…), different agent, different people valuing different things, etc.

Desperatelyseekingsun · 14/02/2018 16:35

No I suppose I chose to become a landlord rather than the owner of a vacant house. However I never wished to become a landlord as an end in itself, it was more about keeping the house ticking over while we aren't living in it. The money is useful I wouldn't pretend it wasn't but it isn't guaranteed and therefore isn't relied on to make our current situation stack up financially, we use it to over pay our morgage.

ohfortuna · 14/02/2018 16:38

No I suppose I chose to become a landlord rather than the owner of a vacant house
you also had the option of selling the house

Desperatelyseekingsun · 14/02/2018 16:38

Also not all rented houses are the same, our house would never be a first or second home and the amount of rent we get would easily cover a first home morgage in the area, people don't just rent because they cannot afford to buy a first home.

Desperatelyseekingsun · 14/02/2018 16:40

That makes no financial sense for a few years, there are signficant costs with both selling and rebuying property. It also could well take the same length of time to sell that we plan to be out of the house, leaving aside the issues of finding another house when we return.

ohfortuna · 14/02/2018 16:50

claiming to be an accidental landlord is an attempt to avoid the criticisms which are currently aimed at landlords
it's bullshit
you weighed up your options and decided to be a landlord, same as all the other landlords.

you could sell the property to an owner occupier who could have a chance of a secure home in which to invest his or her wages
you dont because you deem it to be more lucrative to hold on to the property so that you can divert someone elses wages into your pocket

MigGril · 14/02/2018 17:04

I think it's very area dependent prices in London maybe coming down. But in our area in the last 12 months prices have continued to rise. Mainly due to a lack of supply and new developments charging what seems very over the odds.

lubeybooby · 14/02/2018 17:04

Sold last May in Surrey, drops became noticeable after that. Our onward purchase was dragging on (6 months) and we nearly lost our buyer because of it. We clawed them back by breaking the chain, going into temp rented and exchanging that same week - having worked out that in order to sell again quickly and keep our onward purchase, we'd have had to drop the price at least 20k.

That's just 6 months worth of price dropping plus a couple of extra thousand off to make it irresistible

Temp rental cost 5k, so we are calling that a win.

I'd hate to be trying to sell now.

Nearly all the places we looked at last May when buying are still on the market and reluctantly dropping the odd 5k here and there. It's not enough!

Desperatelyseekingsun · 14/02/2018 17:14

I am currently renting a property and am happy to do so as it meets my needs. I will be most upset if next year my landlord decides to sell the house I am renting as staying here and giving him my money works for me.
If no one wished to rent my property I would keep it vacant until I returned to it. I would not sell it as it is my home and I plan to return to it. The choice is therefore between it being available for rent or being vacant.
There is not a shortage of housing in the area of my house, hence the long time it can take for property to sell. Should anyone wish to buy a house there a range to choose from.
The U.K. does not have one housing market it has multiple ones, where I live there is competion between students and families wanting cheaper homes in the city, other than that there are no significant housing issues.
I don't really care if you have an issue with landlords I was trying to highlight that there isn't a one size fits all solution because people end up as landlords via different routes and that will impact on the choices they make.

Blankscreen · 14/02/2018 17:48

Am I right in thinking that BTL mortgages are still interest only but generally interest only mortgages are unavailable to owner occupiers.

If so that disparity needs to be stopped and all mortgages need to be repayment.

BarbarianMum · 14/02/2018 17:53

Blankscreen no that's not true. Lots and lots of owner-occupiers are on interest only mortgages and many are facing losing their homes when the mortgage ends.

grannytomine · 14/02/2018 17:59

My BTL mortgage isn't interest only. Had it nearly 10 years and 6 years to go.

grannytomine · 14/02/2018 18:03

claiming to be an accidental landlord is an attempt to avoid the criticisms which are currently aimed at landlords it's bullshit

You can think what you like, when we inherited a house it was up to us if we sold or rented, the people who wanted to rent it were happy to do so. We will sell it when we want to just like you can do what you want with your possessions.

Desperatelyseekingsun · 14/02/2018 18:04

We can use our pre arranged mortgage for a number of years then we need to swap to a standard tariff, it will be a capital repayment mortgage which is what we want.

Ll81 · 14/02/2018 18:08

It's not really loosing your own home if you don't own it! It's made very clear when you take out a mortgage that you need to keep up with payments.

Renters have to face losing their home frequently, that's life.

OP posts:
grannytomine · 14/02/2018 18:10

aRespectableBureaudeChange you really can't see this is more of an issue for people who run a business, relying on rentals for an income? What you don't seem to understand is there will always be a market for rentals homes, as an example one of my houses has been let several times, it is a nice little house in a good area. It has always been rented by recent graduates in their first job, they typically stay two or three years and move on when they have saved a deposit. Very few people will be buying as soon as they leave uni. My other house is in a coastal town, if demand for rentals drop, not likely to affect me as housing is in short supply and some is a poor standard, but if it drops I would do holiday lets. I could make a years rent in school holiday lets, I don't as it is easier to have a tenant but nothing to stop me.

Circumstances vary, it really isn't this one size fits all that you imagine. Some of us have been buying and selling houses for 50 years, we've seen slumps and booms and we have weathered them all.

confusednotcom2 · 14/02/2018 18:10

I pretty sure you can no longer get an interest only mortgage unless as an individual you earn 100k, 1 reason less are entering the BTL market.

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