To be terrified that this is the future for the UK? (Sorry, yes it's a Brexit one)

[Rainbunny]

The US Commerce Secretary just made a speech in which he demands that the UK scrap EU food standards on GM crops and animal farming standards after Brexit. Even more sinister were his words indicating that the USA expects to have influence in whatever Brexit deal the UK makes... "He said that it was critical that US interests must be taken into account when finalising an exit deal with the EU..!"

This is exactly what I've been afraid of and it looks to be coming true and the UK as a lone country will not be able to refuse whatever trade deal the USA demands. I get that people who voted leave are still happy they did but is this what they want to have happen?

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/us-brexit-eu-uk-trade-deal-wilbur-ross-commerce-secretary-imports-exports-european-union-a8040571.html

[Melassa]

Actually Mother put it more succinctly.

Suffice to say there are rich pickings in Brexit. Just not for the vast majority of the populace and certainly not for the ordinary man on the street.

[Rufustherenegadereindeer1]

frumpety

You dont need a degree to become a chartered accountant...i should imagine you need the A level maths though

[frumpety]

The getting rid of bursaries thing , could be a complete disaster , I applied as a single parent living in a homeless hostel , another person in my cohort was a redundant miner ( and he was brilliant in mental health ) , a lot of the people on my course were 'mature' students who brought a wealth of life experience with them . If you are looking after people across the age ranges , adult ward age range 18 - 108 , then these life experiences count .

[frumpety]

Ah sorry gone off on a little tangenty rant

[frumpety]

Anyway Caroline care to explain the business confidence -11 ?

[Carolinesbeanies]

Wage rises hit profits for one. The Bank of England were very gloomy about that last week. What a bastard. Closely followed by increase in interest rates. Inflation has been stripping gains in bonds. So the cost of borrowing goes up, and with the BoE implying more rate rises to come, the cost of borrowing becomes hugely significant. No business worth its salt, uses its own money. They finance. ('Cash' is always better utilised to buy stocks, bonds etc for far higher returns) The cost of finance comes direct from profit and reduces tax bills. Finance up to the hilt, its a no brainer.

But absolutely, those eye watering profits of the last 10 years are about to be dented, by the decent wages needed to attract decent staff from a shrinking pool of available labour, and cost to finance will go up, so yes, there will be a contraction in profit reports.

But, its for all the right reasons, not the cheap body shop, taking the piss out of savers and the benefits system wrong ones, weve got so used to.

Many many families on benefits have been trapped by low wage work being the only work on offer. A labour shortage is about to change that, and bosses will have to pay. Those who've built a business on that model are not happy.

[frumpety]

Wage rises , would that be for everyone or just those who work for companies who are signed up to the living wage pledge ? That is only 150,000 people in the UK who will be getting that rise if so . Interesting that two thirds of the FTSE 100 companies are not involved in the scheme .

[Carolinesbeanies]

No frumpety, nothing to do with the living wage (though of course thats good news too). As I said, this is the Bank of Englands forecasts, who look across all sectors, all regions etc and take a UK view.

www.cityam.com/275414/wages-gain-momentum-2018-amid-tight-labour-supply-says-bank

www.ft.com/content/f725cbe2-c472-11e7-a1d2-6786f39ef675

In explaining it, the ft note,

"One possibility is that the first thing to shift has been job quality, with zero hours contracts, and temporary working and other forms of atypical forms of employment plateauing or falling in recent months" he said.

[Motheroffourdragons]

Watching the London news last night, they did a segment on the way Londoners work - I think the majority were on part time, zero hours or working two jobs.

I think the first link above is saying if we continue as we are life is good, but if you follow through to the Mark Carney piece, he is saying that no deal would be terrible for the UK.

Caroline, are you assuming all the time that we will get a good deal from the EU? Or are you happy to see us crash out with nothing?

[Carolinesbeanies]

Mother, Mark Carney has consistantly said a no deal would be terrible. Thats his view. His view also is that wage growth is terrible, as is interest rate rises on costs of borrowing. As is inflation on bonds. etc etc you get my drift. It is not Mark Carneys place (nor would we want it to be) to pronounce on social policies. I.e. Have a view on nurses pay for example, or government spending on the armed forces.

He must look solely at UK PLC, and UK PLC using the same central bank policies as the ECB, have done very well for investors. Thats what hes paid to do.

The claim over whether a no deal would indeed be a 'crash' however, is highly debateable. The World Bank (who know a thing or two about WTO and indeed UK PLC) issued their research in September on a 'no-deal' which reverts to WTO and its impacts. Here it is.

documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/164821505330746382/Short-term-impact-of-Brexit-on-the-United-Kingdoms-export-of-goods

In short, they forsee in the event of a 'no deal', UKs exports to EU will decrease by 2%.

To put that in context, our exports to the EU account for 12.6% of GDP, and a contraction of 2% on that, would impact our total GDP by 0.25%.

No where near the last big crash we had in 2009 which saw a 7.2% reduction.

Im not neccesarily a 'no deal' extremist, but I am anti unfounded hysteria that surrounds it.

[Motheroffourdragons]

From your report This result assumes that the UK will not have any preferential access to the EU market and all its products will enter the EU, the US and China on the Most Favored Nations (MFN) basis. This result also assumes that in the short-run, firms and investments are not free to move across borders. The long-run consequences of Brexit most likely depend on whether the UK can continue to attract and retain its foreign direct investment.

This is a short term view and not likely representative of the long term.

Also

It should be noted that this paper will not talk about services trade, passporting and the role of London as a financial center post-Brexit, or immigration and the social aspect of Brexit.

Lets just ignore these as well?

It seems we can read almost anything we want from almost any article.

[makeourfuture]

No where near the last big crash we had in 2009 which saw a 7.2% reduction.

Hell of a sales pitch.

[makeourfuture]

Interviewer: How bad will it get?
Answer: Well...I would say somewhere around 2009, but not quite the Great Depression. But the accounting firm EY will be OK. We think.

[TheElementsSong]

makeour

It's a wee bit more inspirational as a sales pitch than "As good as the Black Death"!

[NovemberBlues]

not read the thread but he can say whatever the hell he likes, it does not mean for one second we are going to accept any proposals.

[wasonthelist]

Pah! November how can we be expected to be properly “terrified” if you come on here spouting logic and reason?

[NovemberBlues]

Carolinesbeanies Thu 09-Nov-17 21:24:44

Great post Caroline.

[Julie8008]

Its quite funny that leavers are now screaming about the Black Death. The sky really is falling down chicken licken. Thankfully crazy is not contagious.

We now have the exact time of our independence, 11 pm Friday 29th March 2019, it is going to be one boozy celebration weekend.

[Humpsfor20yards]

Its quite funny that leavers are now screaming about the Black Death

[Humpsfor20yards]

It is, I agree.

[LurkingHusband]

inktank.fi/brexit-uk-us-liam-fox-chlorinated-chicken-trade-deal/

[Julie8008]

Don't like Chlorinated chicken, dont eat it. Its a remainers straw man.
Millions and millions of Britans and Europeans don't have a problem with eating it every time they go to the US on holiday.

[Rufustherenegadereindeer1]

How are you supposed to know it's chlorinated?

[LurkingHusband]

How are you supposed to know it's chlorinated?^

Because it will all be chlorinated.