To not be concerned that technology will destroy jobs...

[coconuttella]

It seems to be in vogue to predict that swathes of the workforce will soon be replaced by technology, leaving an army of jobless... However, hasn't technology been doing this for at least 200 years, going way back to the Luddites?.... with people re-training into jobs that are generally more productive and less repetitive and less manual. Why do we people feel it is different this time?

Part of the reason unemployment isn't a particular problem at the moment is because we have quite high underemployment. Ie, people who want a job usually can get one, but that doesn't mean they'll have sufficient and/or reliable hours. Too much zero hours-ing, etc.

Citizens Income in theory allows more room for innovation and entrepeneurship, because people will always have their basic costs covered. So if you quit your PAYE role to build your start up, you're not going to lose the shirt off your back.

Unfortunately we have very high cost of living in the UK due to over-inflated property prices, residential and commercial. Would probably require CI to be set too high to work, at the moment.

"Citizens Income in theory allows more room for innovation and entrepeneurship"
Completely agree, but its where the money will come from to provide that citizens income that troubles me.
At the moment, very heavy taxes on the very wealthy, and on large companies are not only often counter productive, but are politically unpopular - many people disagree with the idea of "punishing" those who have been successful in life. But I worry that once the gap between wealthy and poor widens too much, it becomes even harder to slow that trend down. So without some way of clawing back the wealth generated from this technology, there will not be enough money to fund basic public services, let alone provide UBI.

Sweetbitter, thank you for that link, read the whole thing!

I would love to know what people regard as menial jobs that can be automated.
Also, whilst the intelligent/educated/talented humans will be able to do exciting things like program computers and machines, what about the rest? Will there be a huge increase in numbers of hairdressers and pub landlords?
How are people going to earn money to live on, or will there be a 1984 scenario where everyone is given a certain (minimum) level of subsistence? Or will there be automatic culling of anyone that does not fit the desired human norm?
There are some quite deep and scary issues here.

How are people going to earn money to live on, or will there be a 1984 scenario where everyone is given a certain (minimum) level of subsistence?

Well a basic income would not mean lifelong retirement. But it would allow for things like more part time work and education breaks and things.

On another thread the problem with working until old age is mentioned....this would be an area where a basic income could work well....transitioning into lighter roles, perhaps more mentoring in nature rather than slogging it out till the end six days a week in the laundry.

Another concern for me is how increased automisation interacts with globalisation, and with how the backlash to globalisation is manifesting itself. Personally, I feel that there are advantages as well as disadvantages to globalisation, but that ultimately it cannot be stopped/reversed any more than king Cnut could stop the tides. The only way to mitigate against the (very serious) drawbacks of globalisation is with increased international cooperation, but so far the backlash against globalisation has been all about less cooperation, and more isolationsism. Which doesn't solve any of the problems at all, but just creates a worst of all worlds situation.

I'm not completely pessimistic, and I do think that the challenges facing us can be solved, but I am in no doubt that there are some very real, very serious challenges ahead.

For instance who but Douglas Adams predicted the smart phone?

Side-track from the OP, but smart phones, or their fore-runners were around in the 1980s, they were called PDAs. Psion was one of the first companies to market them, who were themselves a spin-off from Sinclair Research who came up with one of the first home computers. Of course, now history has been re-written so that everything was invented by Apple.

For instance who but Douglas Adams predicted the smart phone?

Star Trek! 😂

A computer/robot could never do my job

A computer/robot could never do my job
never say never...

tech innovations may make many roles obsolete in the way that digital camera killed off photo developers, or online streaming killed off video hire.

Innovations in health care may make some illnesses and health problems much easier to self treat

I wonder if as computers become more intelligent and become more and more superior at tasks now completed by trained/educated humans. We as a species don't start to merge more with machines. Neural Lace technology is being worked on and other cybernetic technology that if successful could see human brains and computers developing symbiotic relationships. A best of both worlds scenario where human brains are capable of working as efficiently as the best high speed computers but can combine that ability with human creativity, artistry, emotion and empathy.

Tbh, I see current generations as the last of our species as pure homo sapiens. Soon we'll be taking control of our own evolution and becoming some sort of new cyborg species eventually heading toward a humanity similar to that of The Culture in Iain M Banks' novels. In fact some of us may even live to be part of it, our children are quite likely to and it's almost a certainty for our grandchildren. It makes me feel a responsibility as parent to raise a child with a very open mind who is emotionally prepared for the massive changes that are likely to come during his lifetime.

I realise that makes me sound like a crazy person but I don't think I am. Technology and society changed rapidly in the 20th century. We went from Queen Victoria to IVF, space travel, digital television and mobile phones in that space of time. But the 21st century will advance much more rapidly as technological growth is snowballing and each advance makes the next increasingly possible. We are at the cusp of amazing biological and technological changes and I think before too long we will marry the two. If we don't, we will be left behind as a species.

sounds great Craftsy, sign me up, or beam me up :o

Yes exactly squishy. It's how we would fund it. Would require some quite radical change, especially wrt property and housing. Which is the biggest single cost for most of us. It doesn't have to be, though.

In a UK context I think it would have to be pretty low because we couldn't afford higher. We'd also have to remove the personal allowance I suspect: your personal allowance would be the CI. So that would mean literally any work anyone did on top of that would be taxed.

Just wait till they get personality......

Sirius Cybernetic corporation, anyone?

Moore's Law is that technology doubles on itself every two years.

I think it's an exciting time for technology but also a scary time, I think it's a reason we need to start thinking about exploring and getting into space - have a reason for the technology.

I think it will be a good thing in the long run (though AGI is quite frightening if you think about how it could be created by mistake - the Wait But Why article explains this very well) but it's likely to get very hard for certain groups of people before things improve. I think that the gap between rich and poor will continue to widen until we get to a point where the super-rich are actually more powerful than government type officials due to their influence. Some people (to be fair, mainly conspiracy theorists) think we're there or almost there already. I don't think that's quite true, but I don't think we should dismiss the idea as outright nonsense. Money talks and the richest few people have so many times more wealth than the average person, not to mention the poorest, who have very little power.

That is what I think machine learning will lead to in the short term. Some people who are born into money using that money smartly and some people who were incredibly lucky to get the right opportunity at the right time and use their talents. A middle class who are doing okay and a poor underclass who are really struggling. The middle class will slowly dwindle until it's not the majority any more and at this point machine learning will begin to be used for the good of all people, and then things will improve. But I don't think that's within our lifetimes.

This is interesting and very good at explaining why it's different this time:

What about nursing/auxiliaries/phlebotomists? I can't imagine a robot having the same empathy a human nurse has for their patients especially elderly patients out in the community (very rural community I work in for example) who actually look forward to their visit?

It's largely unfounded fear - experts at places like Siemens have been doing research into this for decades and predict that the new wave of technology - Industry 4.0 as it's known - will actually create more jobs!

What about policy making and politics? I can see that there is an element of it, that could be handled by computers in future. But a human factor will always be required, I think.

Christine: I have heard about ideas for "robots" to help with elderly, lonely people by acting as a sort of companion/pet. So the care would still be done by humans, but the robot pet would help comfort those with dementia and other problems. I used to feel a bit conflicted about this idea, as it sounded a bit patronising, until I visited an elderly relative in hospital. In the next bed, there was an elderly lady holding a cuddly toy as though it was a small baby. She was cuddling into it, rocking it and singing to it with such tenderness. It was heartbreaking to watch, but she looked happy. I think that is the function that robot pets could perform, but more so.

What about policy making and politics

There are a lot of algorithms involved in the City. Sometimes they cause a crash - as they are following the rules.

www.newscientist.com/article/2108386-algorithmic-trading-could-be-to-blame-for-pounds-flash-crash/

Kathleen Brooks, research director at spreadbetter City Index, said: “Apparently it was a rogue algorithm that triggered the sell-off after it picked up comments made by the French President, Francois Hollande, who said if Theresa May and co want hard Brexit, they will get hard Brexit.”

It then sold the pound,

Technology may get rid of thousands of current jobs, but it will also create thousands of new jobs (jobs we don't yet have a description for). Also need to understand that the first wave of jobs to go will be manual/professional skilled ones that are currently being off-shored to Asia. Asia is becoming expensive with salaries in some countries coming close to the USA - to remain competitive those jobs have to go.