Gini99
I couldn’t agree more that the housing market is very complex but I then disagree to the same extent on your views about fuelling the market and the comments by the BoE.
Landlords have not added to demand and in fact have taken a great deal of pressure off upward price pressure.
Firstly when they buy a house it is with the intention of letting it out, so it is filled with someone needing a home. That person or persons has therefore been taken out of the demand side of the market.
In addition LLs have brought many, many properties back into use that had been empty for years. We have personally re-introduced 8 unloved houses that were unfit for human habitation until we purchased and renovated. One of them had been boarded up for over 10 years!
Some landlords (and whilst this doesn’t apply to us, I certainly know landlords it does apply to) will buy houses ‘off-plan’ and by doing this they provide finance to builders to continue building. An owner occupier could do this but often don’t so where would you suggest that builders get their finance from??? Banks don’t like lending on property projects and when they do they charge phenomenal rates. This would mean higher prices for houses , or maybe some developments just wouldn’t complete.
Then of course there’s the landlords that have taken big old houses and made better use of them by converting to houses in multiple occupation. There are many, many thousands of people that live in these places. Thousands! If landlords hadn’t done the HMO conversions they would all be looking for starter homes.
As for the BoE, I’m afraid it is dangerous to take Mark Carney as anything but a political puppet. You only have to look at his pre-Brexit guff to see just what I mean by that. I guess when you take into account that he is set to earn £7 MILLION if he stays for his 8 year term you can understand his motivations for doing as Osborne told him, but most of what he says can be easily discounted.
For example he likes to say that BTL imposes a financial instability in the market – more guff! The figures he has used about mortgage arrears are actually a lie because, for whatever reason best known to the Bank, they lumped BTL in with second-charge owner-occupier loans, where indeed there are significant arrears. The arrears on BTL mortgages are tiny, absolutely minute. Therefore when they also like to promote ‘big increases in BTL arrears’, you’re talking about an increase on such a small figure it is completely insignificant.
Mark Carney is/ was Osborne’s puppet. Osborne saw BTL as a tax cash-cow and his tax changes were simply to take advantage of that opportunity. Unfortunately it means that rents will rise significantly over the coming years, more and more people will be unable to save a deposit, there will be a step-function in evictions and less houses will be built.
As you said, housing is a complex issue. Mrs May has an opportunity to prevent much damage but she will need to act very quickly indeed.