To think Obama's threat is toothless?

[Villagebike3]

Obama is on his last term. The next US president may well be Trump, who has advised the UK to leave the EU. Soooooo, what Obama says is not all that much of a threat.

mommawoo have you not been following the news? There's a reasonable chance he will be the Republican candidate.

Then all those Republicans that don't support him will have to choose between him and Clinton, who they really loathe.

The joke is well and truly over.

it's not a threat it's an observation.

He was very reasonable and believable. He's not invested in this personally.

Britons tend to think they are a lot more important than they are to the rest of the world. On our own with are a small country which will only get smaller once Scotland votes to leave if Brexit happens.

And Trump is currently at about a 15% probability of being President.

Folk moan that they have no facts & when someone tries to give them the most likely scenario they moan about that, too. Argh.

Trade deal negotiations with UK will not be a priority for Clinton, Saunders, Kasich, Trump or Cruz, either.

It's funny folk talking about sovereignty hypocrisy... this is why each US state is not its own nation (occasionally mooted for TX or CA, but mostly not). All that got mostly hashed out 200 yrs ago, but US states still jealously guard bits of their own sovereignty. Because we believe bigger is mostly safer & better with each US state having a lot of its own laws, anyway. A US of Europe sounds like a good idea to us Yanks. We don't understand your problem with it.

EVERYONE who has posted on here challenging Obama's assessment is clueless about US politics. A trade agreement would have to pass through both Congressional Houses, and in case you haven't noticed, very little actually gets through Congress anymore. Most Americans/congressmen are parochial & view all trade agreement with suspicion, as many of the current US trade agreements have hammered US industry, due to off-shoring & other effects. So Obama is absolutely correct and realistic. A trade agreement with a non-EU Britain would be seen as totally unimportant.

It's obviously patently ludicrous. The Remain campaign are trying to give the impression that the day after a Leave vote, in a fit of vindictive pique, all European and American trade with the UK will cease. Some sort of economic Doomsday scenario. Do they take us for absolute idiots?

In reality things will continue exactly the same as before until new trade deals can be hammered out.

The worst case scenario post-Brexit would be a brief economic recession as the City panicked (no more unlimited cheap labour for them!) and politicians got their act together to work out how to disentangle us from the EU.

I would take that any day over open borders forever, visa-free travel with Turkey happening this year and then Turkey's accession to the EU in a few years. There is no contest.

We're a contrary lot and being told what to do by an outsider has only helped the leave campaign.

In reality things will continue exactly the same as before until new trade deals can be hammered out.

Yes. There are some leaders in other countries who are saying the UK should stay in the EU, but they would say that at this stage, because it's in their own interests. It doesn't mean they or their successors would maintain the same stance after Brexit. It would be pointless. Instead, I think various countries will want to take advantage of the new possibilities, and decide in a positive way how to trade with the UK as it gradually diverges from the EU.

It's not a threat.

It's hysterical media spin.

YABU to take your opinions on world events from right wing media sources

Obama is not interested in the UK's best interests. With us in Europe he feels we represent the USA's interests there better than they can do alone.
The "special relationship" is only special when it suits him

Just as nobody can tell us what like would look like 5 or 10 years after Brexit, no-one is discussing what life will look like 5 or 10 years after committing to the EU with ever increasing union, migration,etc

How does the Internet affect trade deals? I appreciate this is probably a stupid question.

If Trump becomes president we have bigger problems than whether or not to stay in the EU.

“It could be five years from now, 10 years from now before we’re actually able to get something done,” he told the BBC, adding that the first priority for the US would be to complete ongoing talks on a trade deal with the EU.

I don't think any of that is threatening or controversial. Why would the US prioritise dealing with the UK over dealing with the EU? It's no more threatening than when countries said they wouldn't be rushing to make deals with an independent Scotland. It's just realistic.

I certainly don't think trade deals with the UK would be top of Trump's agenda. He has that wall to build.

I like the reference above to the US election being an IQ test - I think the same of out Brexit debate sometimes.

To the poster above who mentioned open borders - left the UK recently? If like to see you try and return without passport.
Agitating for exit:
Trump
Katie Hopkins
Boris
Putin
Le Pen
BNP
George Galloway
Michael Gove
(I could go on).

Advising against:
Obama
Clinton
Merkel
The IMF
Richard Branson
Nicola Sturgeon

I know who I'd rather stand beside.

In reality things will continue exactly the same as before until new trade deals can be hammered out.

Exactly the same with more admin, more cost and more faff. Because Britain would have to make all the same deals all over again with countries inside and outside the EU.

More bureaucracy to reach the same point.

If UK remains an EEA member, then is any new trade deal actually required?

And although it could be 5 or 10 years for a whole new deal, agreement to continue on same terms whilst the new one is sorted out could be done pretty much straight away.

This is close to scaremongering.

In order to join the EEA the UK would have to agree to its key requirements e.g. Free movement of people.

We are already members of EEA (it's EFTA we do not belong to)

And we are voting on whether to leave EU. We could easily continue in EEA. And yes, the free movement of goods, services and people is much more like the EEC that our parents voted to remain in.

Except many people are campaigning to leave the EU on the basis that they emphatically don't want free movement of people in the EU.

And as an EEA member, the U.K. Would still have to follow EU rules, but without a vote on EU rules.

Although you are right, the UK is already an EEA member and the chances of leaving the EEA as well as Europe are very small. Either way, leaving the EU would not change many of the things that people put forward as reasons to leave the EU.