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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

its not democracy if snp and greens get the same votes but only 1green mp but 40 snp mps

65 replies

ljwales · 13/04/2015 19:33

Just heard someone say this on the radio, I don't doubt it.

How can this be democracy? They must change to PR now we are not two party system.

OP posts:
SirChenjin · 13/04/2015 20:40

That may have been the YouGov one that had SNP at only 49%?

No, they were showing a couple of points lower on the ones from Sky earlier this morning.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 13/04/2015 20:40

Polls are pointless unless they are constituency by constituency.

The Ashcroft constituency polls make interesting reading.

lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Scottish-constituency-poll-report-February-20151.pdf (link triggers download)

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 13/04/2015 20:43

they were showing a couple of points lower on the ones from Sky earlier this morning.

Maybe older ones then? I find it hard to keep track as field work dates and publication dates vary so wildly. ScotgoesPop is pretty good for polls analysis (though is pro-indy)

SirChenjin · 13/04/2015 20:57

Could be - I'm not sure, they were advertised as the 'latest' but it's hard to tell with so many coming in from both UK and Scotland. I guess we'll know for sure on the 8th May!

ErrolTheDragon · 13/04/2015 21:05

Surely you must have noticed before that FPTP does not lead to a parliament which represents how people voted as a whole. Take a look at this table of election results since wwII ... for much of the time we were not really a two party system in terms of percentage votes yet two parties totally dominated. Hmm At the last election, the libdems were on 23%, Labour 29% - just 6 points ahead - yet they got 4.5 times as many seats. The discrepancy in 1983 was even more astonishing - Labour 2.2 points ahead of the Alliance but 9 times as many seats.

SirChenjin · 13/04/2015 22:18

Agree Errol

Jackieharris · 13/04/2015 23:09

That Ashcroft poll is interesting thanks for posting.

But he is a Tory so not an unbiased source.

MoustacheofRonSwanson · 13/04/2015 23:30

No, it's not democracy. But FPTP is a very diluted form of democracy.

And a lot of traditional Labour voters in Scotland, will vote SNP in an attempt to keep the Labour Party honest/stop it lurching even further right.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 13/04/2015 23:54

But he is a Tory so not an unbiased source.

Indeed, but I think that the numbers speak for themselves - I can't see where there would be any bias (other than listing Cons first in the q on voting intentions?)

ginghamcricketbox · 14/04/2015 00:32

The Torys will get the most votes but becauase of the libdems blocking the boundry changes labour will get the most seats, UKIP might get 4-5 at a push.The Greens will be lucky to keep 1 The SNP might get 35-40 but they are toxic no national party with any sense will even talk to them so we are back to the status quo a Conservative/Lib dem coalition propped up by the NI parties.

ginghamcricketbox · 14/04/2015 00:39

Here endeth the lesson Grin

saoirse31 · 14/04/2015 07:21

I think you're being quite naive ginggamcb, when it comes to it if govt with support of snp is only way some party can form government then they'll look into their heart for a nano second and do it.

SirChenjin · 14/04/2015 08:10

I agree with your description of the SNP gingham - but agree with saoirse in that if the other way that one of the main parties can form a Govt is to join with the SNP then they'll do it. Hopefully it won't come to that, though.

muminhants · 14/04/2015 08:37

I live in a safe Tory seat (50% plus of the vote) so I waste my vote. I have to live with that until I move to a more marginal seat where my vote might make a difference. I do get a say with the local elections which are a lot closer.

The new Tory candidate always looks so insufferably smug on his photos. And no wonder, he doesn't have to make any effort at all.

I think AV would have been better than FPTP for that reason.

As for the SNP - I'm sorry not more yes-voters are voting Green. I understood that the Scottish Green leader came over very well during the indyref campaign. It looks like the only way to keep the SNP out of some seats will be tactical voting which I know some MNers don't like (because you have to see the bigger picture according to them, ultimately votes cast mean nothing however, only who wins the seat) but ultimately the FPTP system leads to negative voting where you vote against the person you don't want. My mum is a life-long labour supporter but votes libdem to keep her local Tory candidate out.

It's also worth bearing in mind that if the Scottish independence referendum had been conducted on a FPTP system the result would have been a much stronger no than the simple 55%.

muminhants · 14/04/2015 08:37

Just to clarify - I do vote, but it's a wasted vote as it can't count for anything.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 14/04/2015 08:43

As for the SNP - I'm sorry not more yes-voters are voting Green. I understood that the Scottish Green leader came over very well during the indyref campaign.

My understanding is that a lot of Greens are tactically voting SNP in the GE as the FPTP system makes it very unlikely that the Greens would gain m/any seats.

I strongly suspect that in next years Scottish elections the SNPs vote share will be far lower.

SirChenjin · 14/04/2015 09:22

It's also worth bearing in mind that if the Scottish independence referendum had been conducted on a FPTP system the result would have been a much stronger no than the simple 55%

I didn't know that - how would the result have looked, and why?

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 14/04/2015 09:43

I didn't know that - how would the result have looked, and why?

If you assume (over simplistically) that every constituency returned 55/45 then every constituency would have returned a NO vote, so in FPTP that would have meant 100% No/0% Yes.

That's actually a really good illustration of why FPTP is so flawed.

DrSethHazlittMD · 14/04/2015 09:53

The AV proposal was not perfect, but it was a positive step towards a fairer voting system which, in my opinion, is full PR. I think had "we" voted for it, full PR would have been a step nearer than it is now.

I believe we are more likely to have coalitions in future than previously, so parties will get more used to working in tandem which, in a way, would help them get used to a full PR Parliament.

I hope eventually we do get full PR. We need to increase the number of people voting in elections and while there are assorted reasons people don't (parties too similar, the expenses scandal), there are a lot of people who think it's pointless voting because they are in safe seats. Full PR might engage those people because their vote might actually make a difference.

SirChenjin · 14/04/2015 09:54

Nope - still not getting it. The referendum was based on a Yes/No vote per person so a simple adding up of those, surely? It was only based on constituencies in terms of reporting, if I understood correctly. Voting under the current system (both across the UK and in Scotland, although it's slightly better here) does not translate total votes into actual seats across the country/ies.

SDTGisAnEvilWolefGenius · 14/04/2015 10:29

I think whatItsAllGoingToBeFine is positing is an Electoral College system, where each constituency sends one Elector to the Electoral college, and that Elector would be voting either Yes or No, based on the overall result in their constituency.

So if my constituency had voted 55% No, the Elector would go to the Electoral College and vote No. If my constituency had voted 50.01% Yes, then our EC vote would be Yes.

She is suggesting that, if all the constituency votes had gone along similar lines to the overall vote (ie. a result of c55% for No in each constituency) then every constituency would have sent an Elector to the Electoral College to vote No - which would have resulted in a 100% No vote at the EC.

SirChenjin · 14/04/2015 11:00

I get that - but that's not what happened because referendums (da?) operate in a different way to elections where there are many candidates, surely? Apples/pears...

OOAOML · 14/04/2015 11:16

I'm surprised the Lib Dems agreed to the AV referendum instead of pushing for other options. I think voting systems should be open to debate in the next parliament, and depending on the result they may be.

As someone said up thread, the Scottish system works well - we have our (FPTP) constituency MSP which means we have a local point of contact, someone to get involved with community issues etc, and we also have regional list MSPs which means parties like the Greens (and also the Tories, whose voters are spread more thinly so although they got good numbers at the 2010 election they only got one seat) are represented in Parliament.

Turnout is projected to be high in Scotland - has much been predicted about turnout elsewhere?

OTheHugeManatee · 14/04/2015 11:17

Hm, well that link posting failed. Teach me to preview before I post.

Here it is again Smile