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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to think thank god the London property bubble is looking like bursting

290 replies

lexiepix · 26/02/2015 20:20

www.property-time.co.uk/news/Featured-News-227/articles/Latest-Index-Shows-London-Housing-Bubble-Has-Burst-111171.aspx

Its been long overdue and the lr figures for the last few months show that pretty much all of inner London is falling. I know some will have pain from this, but its been waiting to happen for ages and the longer it inflates the worse the pop will be.

For what it's worth I don't live in London, but I think when they do pop the whole country will be better off. When I was working in London most of my older workmates were on about the UK average pay (22-30), but living in property worth between 500-800k, and calling a 300k one bed flat "cheap" Confused

OP posts:
TalkinPeace · 27/02/2015 16:01

TiggieBoo
do not trust the Land Registry data - it has a list of exclusions as long as your arm that results in around 10% of property transfers not being in the data

the unexpurgated list is strictly secret BTW

MN164 · 27/02/2015 16:23

lexipix and Collaborate

Cake
noddyholder · 27/02/2015 16:24

I am looking to buy atm for us as a home not a work thing. Agents ringing me a lot and nothing like as many quick sales as last spring. I have an old financial bloke who used to advise me before he retired and he was always very accurate and he told me off in Jan as I said I was going to buy as he thinks I should wait until after Sept

MN164 · 27/02/2015 16:26

Totally agree that asset price stagnation along with growth in wages and pension yields over a sustained period will benefit millions both young and old.

The people that hate that economic outlook tend to be shareholders and financial services professionals. They've filled their boots enough, in my opinion.

TiggieBoo · 27/02/2015 16:26

The thing is, I don't particularly believe any statistics, there is always a way of presenting them in a way that furthers your agenda.

But I would much rather trust data from the Land registry, even if it only covers 90% of transactions, than take as Gospel stats provided by a property search website, that only has access to asking prices advertised online through estate agents.

Incidentally, I've been actively looking for a 3 bed house in a certain zone 2 area for the past 2 years, I've seen prices going up and up all the time and as far as I can tell they are still going up, as well as disappearing off the market within days.

Bowlersarm · 27/02/2015 16:33

The London property auctions are currently very very strong. There is no bubble bursting at the moment, that's for certain.

TalkinPeace · 27/02/2015 16:35

Tiggieboo
But the 10% it excludes are the price outliers which tell you which way the market is really heading

  • mortgage repossessions
  • purchases by companies
  • sales at under value to family
lexiepix · 27/02/2015 18:46

Welcome mn164 easily the post of the thread.

Tiggie the lr figures came out today, I posted them. Pretty much all of London fell in Jan, London has crashed before and will again.

OP posts:
MustChooseASecondary · 27/02/2015 18:49

Rampant inflation would also help...

Draylon · 27/02/2015 19:32

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

londonrach · 27/02/2015 19:34

Moved away from london in november.... Still londonrach but hay ho. I get emails from where we live from rightmove regularly... Most properties are now reduced.

Bowlersarm · 27/02/2015 19:40

Haha OP.

Just highlight the post you agree with.

We'll see. Who knows. But don't fill your boots too soon in the misery of others.

Draylon · 27/02/2015 20:03

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

stubbornstains · 27/02/2015 20:17

I see that both the Tory housing minister and the Labour shadow housing minister are in for a web chat on Monday, if anybody was interested in posing any difficult questions? that won't get answered

Bowlersarm · 27/02/2015 20:31

Draylon I haven't mentioned gloating. I can assure you I'm not, we moved out of london over 10 years ago, now our old house is worth more than a million £ than we sold it for. Our bad luck.

But you've got a problem if you are hoping the london market is going down as we speak. It isn't.

Draylon · 27/02/2015 20:41

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Bowlersarm · 27/02/2015 20:42

No, it isn't.

BigPawsBrown · 27/02/2015 20:49

I went to a property finance thing the other day and london property prices are rising, more than anywhere.that articles bollocks

Draylon · 27/02/2015 20:50

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

SchnitzelVonKrumm · 27/02/2015 22:50

One thing people have consistently failed to spot is that turnover in the London housing market has been incredibly low for years. We bought last year after waiting three years for suitable properties to become available - in the first year I literally saw one house. And hardly anything has come on since. Family houses in 'normal middle-class' London are already like hens' teeth and if prices soften people will be even less likely to sell.
In that context, you only need to buy or sell one multi-million pound house to have a big effect on the overall figures.

Notcontent · 27/02/2015 23:21

I am in Central North London and houses are still being snapped up as soon as they come on the market. There is huge demand for housing because this is where the jobs are.

EdnaCrumplehorn · 27/02/2015 23:25

London has decoupled from the rest of the uk and is an truly international city. The only other city to do this has been New York, domestic economics have little effect on either nor do they really benefit their home countries.
People are drawn like moths to bulb expecting the streets to be paved with gold, they spend their money and if luck is with them they stay, if they fail and leave again they still blow a whole lot of cash.
With those sort of cash flows property isn't crashing bigtime soon.

pontypridd · 27/02/2015 23:28

I think it will crash. I think it has to. It would be good news for those of us that live inside London. Many families round here are being forced out because they cannot afford to get a house or flat with an extra bedroom to fit their family into as it grows. They moved in 10 years ago with no children and now have soon to be secondary aged kids.

Where I live there are loads of houses coming on the market every day and not much shifting. There are reductions daily. This has been happening since September 2014. The reductions are still coming daily now. At this time of year you wouldn't normally expect that.

It certainly feels in this Zone 3 part of London as if a crash, or at least a dip, is on its way.

southeastastra · 27/02/2015 23:29

they are doing the opposite, it's quite sad really, storyville the other day documented the fall of small businesses in mayfair. big companies buying out all the small businesses just for their prime location.

the death of london is here. it's really awful. chinese mostly buying property and leaving it empty. it sucks

SchnitzelVonKrumm · 27/02/2015 23:36

Also, the population of London has just hit its all-time peak and is projected to grow by another million by 2030. How many houses were built last year?

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