ive made £19'000 this week sat on the toilet

[alittlethyme]

In imaginary money Trading in stocks, shares and commodities Mainly while on break at work. Aibu to think it can be this easy to make money? Aibu to save my treat money up for weeks and do it for real?

IG Index in their guide book (I had about 15 years ago) said they don't care which way you bet on markets, because they hedge their exposure in underlying markets.

They said something somewhat different in their prospectus when they went public though. They said they try as far as possible not to hedge customer bets. This is because they know customers generally lose money, so by doing the opposite of whatever their customers are doing, in aggregate, they believe they will make money.

Apparently this is also the reason that spread-betting is tax-free. The government know most people will lose money, and if winnings were taxable then profits would be tax-deductible, and the government would be out-of-pocket. (Not sure if that makes sense, something I read in a book on spread-betting.)

losses would be tax-deductible

Is that individual losses on trades?

I thought this futures difference thing was tax free but apparently not.

What do the big traders do as surely they are not buying shares if they can go short?

Oh yes I read that 80% of people loose in spread betting, still is very addictive though lol.

Surely I'f I buy oil when it goes really low it has to come up from there?

Ha ha ha!

Unless you are quite old, people have been saying that about the Japanese market since before you were born.

Even if you are right and the market is wrong, the market can stay wrong longer than you can stay solvent.

I have sharesave at my work - friggin love it. Invested 9k last time, got 16 back. Its tax-free, and you choose at the end of the 3 year period whether you want your savings back or the shares - so you can't loose. Amazing how few people at my work do it. Apparently isas are better

I would add the 'fooled by randomness' book by Nicholas Taleb as well who recants tales of supposed oracles of the market who bombed, and helps better to conceptualize the market. I wouldn't go anywhere near it tbh.

I'm playing with cdf I think its called, contract differentials futures. It is just speculating but if I just wanted to play with 100 quid perfectly possible. I did short the ftse100 when it hit a high then sell this morning for 4k imginginry money.

If you "play with 100 quid" any profit you can realistically make will be eaten by fees, etc.

Not if you just speculate with no fees and the provider makes their money on the spread and people running out of equity.

If you worked out the financial side unless you played with huge amounts of money, you would never make significant sums. It would take a very long time starting with a stake of £300 to work up to playing with thousands even if you increased continuously.

I know this as DH does precisely this type of 'gambling'. . He usually wins but the amounts are tiny, although they are growing slowly.

The small people who do well on the stock exchange are the ones who have had the shares for many years.

Try it though with a 'betting bank' of around £300 (or any amount you are prepared to lose)

Not if you just speculate with no fees and the provider makes their money on the spread and people running out of equity.

Fees, spread, call it what you will!

dh is a currency trader and thought about day trading at home when he got made redundant a couple of years back, he had a big redundancy pay out and was of the view that if anyone could make a success and a living out of it, as a pro currency trader with 20+ years experience he could, he spent about 8 weeks paper trading before he went out and got another paid trading job because he just couldn't get the information quick enough to catch the first market moves when he could make money, bloomberg is c. $3k a month and he would never generate that sort of income + a salary

That's the thing, as an amateur trader you are hoping to outwit experienced professionals who know more about (whatever it is) than you ever will. They make their money as a wolf in a field of sheep.

The winners only win because someone else has lost. You aren't even playing poker against a pro, you're playing chess against a Grand Master. Sometimes, by chance, you will guess right.

I don't agree at all pig.

Your really talking up these "professional" traders as if they are geniuses when they are just gambling also.

The winners win thesedays as the government is printing money as the UK is highly dependent on fs and would rather devalue a currency than loose its fs industry.

I never trust anyone that calls themselves a financial expert.

Anyway all I need to do is get 5% return daily on my initial 100 then I'll be a millionaire in a bit over 6 months ;)

Dh does this for 'fun'. He trades with a few thousand and it is his play money. He, too, toyed with doing it with more money as he is a bit disillusioned with work (works in the City).

Even he would just say its gambling! I say it's gambling, clever gambling perhaps, lots of educated guesses. He is financially astute though. He makes and loses, doesn't take it personally and calculates his profit and loss on a net basis. He is very very nerdy!

I know its gambling, but hey its a step above scratch cards.

I fully expect to treble my 100 stake then loose it all in one go lol