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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think we perhaps do have a budget deficit

35 replies

shareacokewithnoone · 29/09/2014 18:03

The Tories want to get back into power (obviously.)

If we use Mumsnet as a judge they are hugely unpopular.

They won't want to be unpopular.

AIBU to think maybe, just maybe, they do need to make cuts?

OP posts:
LuisSuarezTeeth · 30/09/2014 13:09

Perhaps time would be better spent chasing the £35billion in lost tax revenue through tax evasion and avoidance? That was 2011-2012. Just ONE year.

Iggly · 30/09/2014 13:14

As far as I can tell, the only people who vote Tory are those who don't give a shit about anyone else in society because they're alright themselves

I agree. Tory voters cannot see past themselves and have absolutely no co cept that, you know what, life is tough for some people and sometimes we need to make things a bit fairer for all.

Takver · 30/09/2014 13:19

It's very hard to give a short answer to your question. I should say that I come to this from a left wing perspective, so you need to take that into account Grin.

BUT, it is fair to say that very many respected economists who are middle of the road politically would agree that it is very easy for misdirected efforts to cut a budget deficit too fast to result in either recession or reduced growth, and therefore actually to make it harder in the medium to long term to balance the budget.

To put it simply, it's what happened in the 1930s, there was a crisis, governments slashed spending, that threw lots of people out of work, they had no money to spend and the end result was a downward spiral into depression.

Other questions to ask are:

(a) what is the actual day to day impact of running a budget deficit in this country at this moment, and is that deficit sustainable - eg in Greece it clearly wasn't as the country could no longer borrow, largely because the country has a very long history of defaulting on its debts, whereas the UK does not (in the book This Time is Different analysing the crisis, the last 'government default' in the UK that the authors came up with was Henry VIII appropriating the resources of the monasteries). Obviously it's not ideal to have a very large national debt (which an annual deficit will add to) because you have to pay interest, but the UK has had much larger debt to GDP ratios in the past at times when national income was lower. (This page is quite useful to show the deficit in context)

(b) why do we have a deficit? Obviously it's complex, and the financial crisis is a significant part of it, but recession will always increase a deficit - unemployed people are not working, paying tax, and generating resources, under employed factories or businesses that go bust ditto. Growth is generally the best way to get out of this.

Spend your time reading the Financial Times, International Monetary Fund reports and the like (ie not left wing propaganda!) and I think you'll find it pretty clear that cutting public spending as is current government policy is not an effective way to reduce the UK deficit.

Not only that but the things that are being cut are such a minimal part of public spending that cutting them won't even have much of an immediate impact. Jobseekers allowance for example made up 0.007% of public spending in 2011-12 (sorry old figs, but the %ge doesn't change much from year to year).

Obviously, it does fit with wider Conservative policy to reduce welfare spending - but that is a political and not an economic decision.

Sorry for the essay!

godeeva · 30/09/2014 15:47

Theheadline infoi would love to know for each year of the coalition governmentwas/is in power:

  1. The total amount of taxes collected;
  2. The percentage of people who earned less than £40,000.00 and paid tax
  3. The amount that was spent on redundancy/severance pay to make the cuts
  4. The total amount borrowed each year

I suspect if the govt answered this honestly, it would be very difficult to justify further measures that hit working age people with families

WalkingThePlank · 30/09/2014 15:55

Iggly says that Labour won more votes than the Conservatives. This is incorrect. In 2010 the voting distribution was:

Conservatives : 10.7m
Labour: 8.6m
Liberal Democrats: 6.8m

StatisticallyChallenged · 30/09/2014 16:34

godeeva

  1. the "public finances databank" at this link has some figures - 2013/14 onwards is a projection

2010-11 555.5
2011-12 576.7
2012-13 593.5
2013-14 620.6
2014-15 648.1
2015-16 675.4
2016-17 711.0
2017-18 743.4
2018-19 777.7

  1. Do you mean "paid tax" or were net contributors? the tables here give you number of tax payers in each income band and the total amount contributed? I don't have the full details to hand but this article has some useful info on net contributors

  2. No idea

  3. the link in answer 1 also lists public sector net borrowing

LineRunner · 30/09/2014 16:37

The national debt is not the same as the deficit.

The Tories benefit from this misunderstanding. They are cynically ignoring the actual debt if you ask me.

Smilesandpiles · 30/09/2014 16:42

The country is skint so they tax the disabled for their "spare" rooms, which aren't actually apre but hold equiptment, somewhere for their spouse or carer to sleep (which they are paying for by the way) but...

they can find a few billion for IDS to blow on computer systems that don't work and another few billion on a railway that no one wants or can afford to use.

So, which one is it?

Smilesandpiles · 30/09/2014 17:08

Also, I'm sure I've read somewhere that it's not just out of work benefits being affected by this freeze, it's all in work benefits as well, including child benefit, both sets of tax credits, Income support (and carers as a result), JSA, ESA...the lot. It's all working age benefits, and that's a hell of lot of people that are going to be hit by this and not know it affects them until it's too late, thanks to the focus on the jobless.

I don't think that Pensions or DLA (unless it's affected indirectly) are included. Yet.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/30/david-cameron-cut-benefits-working-poor

www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/29/george-osborne-working-age-benefits-frozen

I think I may be on the wrong thread but I'm sure it's valid on both.

Iggly · 30/09/2014 17:29

Sorry Walking, I stand corrected!

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