Ebola.

[TheLovelyBoots]

I'm quite nervous. AIBU?

Do you think it will come to the UK

I don't think it's impossible for someone with the virus to arrive in the UK, require treatment or even die. I don't think it's impossible for there to be a UK person who contracts Ebola from within the UK from such a person. I don't think it's impossible that we may be, at some point, monitoring a handful of people to see if they develop the disease.

What I do think is so unlikely I don't waste time worrying about it is that Ebola in the UK will present any significant or serious threat to public health. It doesn't scare me that someone may come here with it and die, infect others or create a mini-pocket of infection, because I know how this virus spreads (with difficulty), I know how straightforward it is to contain (basic hygiene and quarantine rules apply), I know how easily it burns itself out (quickly).

I am a PhD biologist (albeit not anything infectious disease related). My husband is a PhD virologist. Neither of us are remotely concerned. I don't say that to command authority, but to say that people who perhaps have a better handle on what this is aren't actually worried (hopefully that doesn't sound patronising and you get my intention). In fact, we are both pretty furious at how this is being mishandled by the media.

I think Maidofstars is right on the money with her post and I'm not personally worried either

I think Maidofstars is right on the money with her post and I'm not personally worried either

I think the biggest epidemic at the moment is one of fear.

Now that a pheic has been declared it should really help wake up the global community that the countries affected at present really really need help, whether it's money, healthcare workers, supplies or training. These are countries who through poverty and recent wars can not manage this outbreak without help.

I think that our primary concern should still be with those people directly affected at present and if the infection can be stamped out at source then there shouldn't be issues elsewhere globally with this particular disease.

Did you know that a polio pheic was issued in May?

Bear in mind also that while Lagos is a big, chaotic city, it is not by any means as poor, lacking in services and chaotic as Liberia and Sierra Leone thanks to years of war. Guinea has also had lots of recent political upheavals, and is poor.

The are many very good doctors and hospitals in Nigeria. It is not well-governed, but from what I know of the place they, including the wealthy and super-wealthy, will not hesitate to help their own. Some Ebola pandemic raging unchecked may happen, but I think it is relatively unlikely.

The North may be a slightly different story thanks to Boko Haram, but I think Lagos would get a handle on an epidemic faster and better than people are supposing.

I posted last week about the procedures in place at my hospital and completely forgot to check back. For the person who asked, I work at a London hospital but due to the timings I think that the guidelines were probably a result of the Cobra meeting.

Someone also PMed me asking why I was so sure that Ebola wouldn't turn airborne. Ebola has a threadlike structure which makes it pretty fragile in comparison to airborne viruses such as influenza or corona viruses (which are responsible for a large percentage of "common colds" but also include the SARS virus) which are a more stable spheroid shape. It has an RNA genome rather than DNA which means that it has a relatively high rate of evolution compared with some viruses but still a much lower rate of evolution than e.g. HIV and a tiny rate of evolution compared with influenza. The reason that new strains of influenza that infect humans are such a worry is that influenza has a segmented genome - it has the viral equivalent of 8 chromosomes and if someone is infected with two strains at the same time you can end up with hybrid viruses that share traits with both viruses. This means that an influenza virus which is novel to humans (and can therefore be quite nasty as not many people have any immunity to it and the virus hasn't had time to evolve to be less deadly) can combine with an influenza virus that is well adapted to spreading between humans (and might normally cause quite mild symptoms) creating a virus that is both deadly and easily transmitted between humans. This could categorically not happen in the case of ebola.

As I said, it's a horrible disease but you have more chance of winning the lottery than you do of contracting ebola in the UK even if you are a doctor or nurse. Everyone who has some spare cash should donate some to Doctors Without Borders though because their brave doctors and nurses are quite likely to catch it without the proper protective equipment.

Thank you QS, that was very interesting to read and very well explained :)

Thank you maidofstars and Queen for the good posts. Im not worried anymore.

apparently there are people in the UK back from west Africa, but they are under quarantine at their homes, being telephoned daily by doctors watching them , there's one in wales, but others ''around the uk'' so it sounds like they have a good grip of things: no one actually has symptoms either

Can you give a link for that Doom?

There was a story about the Welsh man on the BBC this week, AnAirOfHope, but I can't find it now.

Thank you Queen Stromba. (You should be writing all that relevant and reassuring info in the DM?!)

Don't know about the man in Wales, but the man in New York has been confirmed as not having Ebola. The Saudi Arabian case is not being reported any more, but I did come across an announcement from them yesterday, saying that 'the second suspected case had been confirmed as not Ebola'. Still nothing about the first case, and it's impossible to infer anything from that press release.

Flu terrifies me. Ebola does not. The more I learn, the more obvious it is that this devastating disease will very likely not have any impact upon us here.

I live in wales thats what made me panic

Wales is a big enough place, lovely. I live in Lincolnshire, and a single suspected case here wouldn't concern me; they are already voluntarily housebound, and under surveillance.

As far as I can remember, the man from Wales has been to West Africa, is asymptomatic and is isolating himself at home. I'm not sure if he's even been in contact with anyone with Ebola. The BBC story was only a couple of paragraphs.

I shall come out of hiding then

there's one in Canada now too, in hospital with fever & flu symptoms, total quarantine

the wales story

ebola without the hype, by Newsbeat

Thanks for the links.

The story of Sawyer in Nigeria is very interesting. Google Sawyer and indiscipline. Apparently Nigerian officials have not given a consistent story. There are rumours that Sawyer went crazy when told he had Ebola and urinated on staff. The comments, some of which appear to have been written by friends and family hint at him having been shot rather than dying of Ebola. There is also talk that he was so insistant that he had malaria that he was not immediately placed in isolation.
Disclaimer - I have no idea of the trustworthiness of websites such as frontpageafricaonline.com

Liberia is struggling, but the Canada case is not ebola

all these people who come back from west Africa and are very ill, but not with ebola..how many nasty illnesses are there? malaria I suppose, but don't people take anti malarials?

I think typhoid might present similarly but not sure. Most would probably get themselves vaccinated against that, but it's not unheard of for people to go abroad and catch it.

I'd imagine anybody who's been to that area and has flu-like or gastro symptoms is going to need to be checked out. Even if it only turns out to be something mild like flu or noro. And there's a few of those bugs going round at the moment.

Rafa I saw a story on sky news asking a David Goodwin to get in urgent contact with the police (having travelled overseas). I then saw a story saying he wasn't in any trouble and had been contacted. I immediately thought ebola (probably falsely ).

However I thought I would internet search for that a couple of days later and it had disappeared!