OP, you have a really strong instinctive feel going on there, and I would listen to it - it is telling you something.
We are routinely inducing at 42 weeks or less - and given that normal "term" is classed by the medics as 37-42 weeks (not the "due date" which is meaningless) for most women, inducing before 42 weeks (eg 40+12) is just bizarre. Only 90% of women birth healthy babies within that time anyway - one in ten birth before or after so it's not exactly unusual. Some women have naturally longer than average gestations (obviously, otherwise they wouldn't call it "average"), and women with longer menstrual cycles than 28 days very often have longer pregnancies.
Yes, there are tiny increases in stillbirth rates after around 42 weeks, but they go to around the same as at 37 weeks, and no one - no one - worries about stillbirth at 37 just because it's 37 weeks, in the same way that there is a lot of fear of 42 weeks.
There are also discussions at the moment about the fact that while the stillbirth rate is slightly reduced since induction at 42 weeks has become the norm, in fact overall the numbers of babies "saved" hasn't changed, as many of those brought out by induction who would have died in utero were not compatible with life, and would have died soonish after birth anyway, but the stats only show the in utero and shortly after birth live births. That's not all babies. Some will have been saved by induction. Other babies, and other mothers, will be injured by the induction process. It's very, very hard, therefore, to know what's best, and in the end you have to go with your gut - and the knowledge you have.
Childbirth - well, life - never has guarantees on it. No one else's birth will be yours, and you can only make the very best decisions you can at the time that you make them, and your instinct is a really, really important part of that. Listen to it. It knows its stuff. Nature is not perfect, and sometimes help is no only welcome, but essential. We can't always get it right, either way. We can only listen to our hearts, our instincts, and go from there. And if your heart says baby needs to come out, listen to that, too. xxx
If you are interested in finding out more, here are some links:
Balance of risks when considering induction: midwifethinking.com/2010/09/16/induction-of-labour-balancing-risks/
The definitive guide to induction, available on Kindle or PDF: aims.org.uk/pubs.htm#induction
Article in the Journal of Perinatal Medicine discussing saying no to induction: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1595289/
Obviously my answer is supporting your post where you are saying that you wish to avoid induction. I feel that it is a perfectly reasonable and sensible decision. Of course, there is a reason - a good one - why induction is recommended, and while the data isn't that brilliant, it seems that some babies will be saved by being induced. For those very few women and their families who tragically lose their babies because they decided not to have an induction, the statistics don't matter at all. And of course, for them, a live baby would have been worth everything they may have gone through for it, and my heart goes out to them, absolutely. But, according to the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaes, thousands of women need to be induced to save one baby. www.rcog.org.uk/files/rcog-corp/1.2.13%20SIP34%20IOL.pdf It's really not the case that 42 weeks should be feared as it is.