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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To be concerned about Fukushima? seen some alarming FB posts that claim to be credibly sourced?

101 replies

ClifftopCafe · 13/12/2013 14:14

Anyone have a view?

OP posts:
DrSnowman · 14/12/2013 20:51

Well if we need either a or b then we should choose the safer of the two.

I think your thesis is a fools errand.

A motorcycle per mile traveled is more dangerous then a car, but as people die in car wrecks then you should never go anywhere by car.

Also as people slip over and die while walking you should never talk somewhere, as people sometimes choke on their food and die you should not eat anything (I guess you will stave to death). Also many people die of drinking bad water, so you should not drink water.

technodad · 14/12/2013 20:52

Ok, but the only way for "a" and "b" to be stopped, is for you and the whole rest of the world to go back to living in a cave.

I bet you have your heating on right now whilst typing on your computer with the lights on.

How can we stop deaths from pollution without turning our backs on non-essential power use?

DrSnowman · 14/12/2013 20:54

My last post was a comment addressing something Golddigger wrote

technodad · 14/12/2013 21:00

Dr snowman.

So was mine. We both replied to Golddigger at the same time. I completely agree with your point.

DrSnowman · 14/12/2013 21:20

Thanks Technodad,

Great minds think alike

Golddigger · 14/12/2013 21:46

Too tired to work this out right now, but I still dont see how talking about other sources of power has any bearing whatsoever in trying to keep radiation deaths to as near zero as possible?

DrSnowman · 14/12/2013 22:01

Well I am in favour of keeping radiation exposures as low as is reasonable, the best way to do that is to stop burning coal.

Also we need to take more care about radon and reduce medical doses, the reduction which would be gained if the nuclear industry was closed down would be small and would be likely to be outweighed by other health costs.

HappySeven · 14/12/2013 22:14

DrSnowman, lovely to see some common sense on here. Did anyone know that there have been studies showing that 'a little radiation does you good'? Radiologists (doctors who are exposed to radiation) live on average longer than other doctors. I'll try and find the reference if anyone's interested but I know it's an old one.

LostInWales · 14/12/2013 22:22

Really Happy? I would like that if it was true, I'm a radiographer so I would presume that it wouldn't discriminate to those with medical degrees, although I will maintain skepticism until I see some good research. All the radiologists I know are also a teeny bit odd, I wonder if that is a factor too Wink.

DrSnowman, I salute your ordered brain and great knowledge, it's a pleasure reading such well thought out intelligent posts.

HappySeven · 14/12/2013 22:44

As a radiographer, Lost, your dose will be minimal but then you already know that. I was told the 'radiologists love longer' by a highly regarded medical physicist who agreed with you that general lifestyle and financial choices would be similar for all medics and therefore this study was interesting. I'll have a play and see what I can find.

Golddigger · 15/12/2013 08:41

DrSnowman.
Nuclear power exists. It makes sense to keep its dangers to a minimum. I presume you would agree?

technodad · 15/12/2013 09:18

Golddigger

The reasons it is useful to discuss other forms of power, is that it puts things into context and helps decide where we should be investing our efforts and money.

Assuming the need for electricity in the world can't be changed, then we must generate it in the most safe way.

So, when deciding whether we should be using coal or nuclear, the choice is simple.

When deciding if people should spend their time campaigning to stop nuclear power stations from being built, it is clear. Campaign FOR nuclear, not against.

Of course you are right, we should do everything we can to minimise the risk of nuclear incidents, but this is being done all the time already. Clearly this is always a balance of cost vs. benefits, and a view on what value in £s each potential death is worth, but that is the world we live in today - this is how companies and regulators make decisions.

A similar argument is air travel vs. car travel, where many people are scared of flying, but don't think twice about driving to the airport.

The fact is, you are far more likely to die during the drive to the airport (by many orders of magnitude) than you are during the flight, but you don't hear many people complaining about being car phobic!

This doesn't mean that engineers and regulators aren't doing everything they can to make flying even safer. EASA and FAA etc are making constant safety improvements to the aircraft design and air traffic management requirements. Many of these improvements will be made based upon lessons learned from aircraft crashes and incidents.

This is completely analogous to the nuclear industry, who will likely be changing their regulation regarding power plant installations in tsunami risk areas, which will likely require retrofits to existing plants to improve safety, and new, more stringent requirements for newly built facilities.

The long and the short of it is: nuclear power is very safe indeed (statistically).

Golddigger · 15/12/2013 09:48

It is safeish?
I am actually pro nuclear for now, just.
But I am not naive enough to think that there are not any ways left to improve safety. Or that there are cover ups. Or we only hear a fraction of what is going on.

My son could have gone into the nuclear industry. He would earn a lot of money there. But him and I decided that particularly because he would have been more at the dirty end so to speak, that the potential risks to his health were not worth it.
If say, 20 years down the line, if he had not been able to have children for example, we would always have wondered if it had anything to do with what he was doing , job wise.

flatpackhamster · 15/12/2013 10:00

There's been lots of research done in to the health of workers in the nuclear industry. This was the biggest study, carried out on over 400,000 workers. It found there was a tiny increase in deaths from cancer (1-2%).

technodad · 15/12/2013 10:03

Still not even on the same graph as the number of Chinese civilians killed by smog.

Golddigger · 15/12/2013 10:06

technodad. But deaths, or more likely illness from radiation cant really be measured can it? And the effects sometimes can only be felt or measured or guessed at many years later?
Could be wrong. Not looked into it overly much.
I will look at your link flatpackhampster.

technodad · 15/12/2013 10:13

Of course they can - by statistical analysis.

technodad · 15/12/2013 10:16

The worrying thing is, that people with no qualifications in science or statistics, "believe" something is bad and think they know better than those who have many years of research.

The only result in these people having air time, is the increase likelihood in the use of far more dangerous forms of power generation.

This kills millions of people.

Golddigger · 15/12/2013 10:28

Dont believe everything about research. I do know a little about it, as my son works in it.
And you know the phrase something like, lies, damned lies and statisitics.

I do take your point. But I, and I dont know about others, do take it along side other things as well.
And are very aware, that if stuff is put in wrongly in any way, that the results come out wrongly.
Along with a whole list of other factors.

larrygrylls · 15/12/2013 10:37

"I've read about how the contaminated water is leaking into the ocean via ground water."

If radioactive water is going to leak anywhere, the ocean is probably the best place for it! The public perception of the dangers of low level exposure to radioactivity are vastly overestimated. Even in Chernobyl, where the levels of radiation near ground zero was really quite large, wild life has flourished in the evacuated area. Some wildlife experts actually make trips there as the benefits of no human beings have vastly outweighed the damage due to radioactivity.

If people look at the deaths due to every other kind of power, they are vast compared to the deaths due to nuclear power.

technodad · 15/12/2013 12:26

Arguments against nuclear power are like arguments against vaccination.

Both are based upon poor statistical analysis and both have an alternative that would lead to the death of billions of people.

Sadly, the no-campaign on both nuclear and vaccination gets lots of attention from the media, who just want to sell newspapers and make money and don't care if billions of people die!

Sadly, people are stupid, and believe the media hype!

mariamuir · 15/12/2013 12:58

A record 1.8 million becquerels of beta-ray sources per liter of water were detected at a monitoring well at the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Dec. 13.

The reading concerns strontium and other beta-ray sources.

The water was sampled at a monitoring well in an area close to the sea near the No. 2 reactor building on Dec. 12. The well is located close to trenches holding highly radioactive water.

TEPCO said the reading apparently spiked after highly radioactive water seeped into the surroundings through failed parts of the trenches.

Groundwater from well No. 1-16 Collected Dec. 12, 2013:

Cs-137: 1.8 becquerels per liter (Bq/L)
Co-60: 0.55 Bq/L
All ?: 1,800,000 Bq/L

20 Navy Sailors: USS Ronald Reagan crew with thyroid cancers, leukemia, brain tumors, bleeding, blindness after Fukushima disaster — Young kids developing problems — Gov’t and Tepco involved in major conspiracy.

Attorney Charles Bonner, one of the team representing sailors from the USS Ronald Reagan in their lawsuit against TEPCO for the health damages they sustained from Fukushima radiation during Operation Tomadachi, the humanitarian aid mission to Japan immediately after the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

DrSnowman · 15/12/2013 15:14

Well if GoldDigger's son went into the worst area of the nuclear power sector for radiation (reprocessing worker) then his likely radiation exposure would be tiny. I can think of some places on earth where the natural radiation is so high that the UK's health protection authority would blow a gasket if a nuclear worker ended up with a dose 10 times lower. Yet in these places we do not see vast epidemics of ill health.

Also uranium mining (another tradiational high dose job) has got much safer, it is much more regulated than it was in the old days. The radon levels in mines are lower these days, and they have made sure now days that people do not smoke in the mine. In uranium miners it is hard to see a relationship between radon exposure and cancer for non smokers, but for smokers it is much more easy to see a relationship.

The key take home message is never smoke in a radon infested area, always go outside into a clean area before lighting up for a nice refreashing smoke.

DrSnowman · 15/12/2013 15:35

Regarding mariamuir's scary sounding post.

  1. The latent time between exposure to radiation and thyroid cancer is too long for people to be getting stricken with cancer now, also the latent time for leukemia is too short. Plus brain cancer is not normally associated with radiation. It sounds to me like some immoral ambalance chasing lawyer is trying to make a fast buck off what is sadly just normal non fukushima related cancer cases. While I feel sorry for these young men, it does not make it Tepco's fault that they had the misfortune to get sick.
  1. The Cs-137 and Co-60 levels are very low in the water that they mentioned. The 1.8 MegaBq per litre might sound scary, if it is tritium then it is not such a big deal as it would be if it was Sr-90. I would like to know if TEPCO has done a decent radiochemical examination of the water. If I was them I would do some simple radiochemistry to check how much of the activity is due to strontium.

The easy way to do it is to add some stable (natural) strontium chloride to the water sample and then some sodium sulfate. This will form an insoluble strontium compound (SrSO4) which you can centrifudge off. Then measure the radioactivity level of the water. Then you compare it with the original water sample.

DrSnowman · 15/12/2013 15:59

Maybe an alternative to the lawyer being an immoral ambalance chaser is that he is taking on a case which is close to impossible to win, the problem is that for a single person given a moderate to large dose it is hard to prove that the person got cancer as a result of the radiation dose.

For example if we took a hypothetical population of Fukushima plant workers who did emergency work and all ended up with 100 mSv doses, if we had 200 workers exposed to this level then the normally accepted radiation dose to cancer risk coefficent would give us about one cancer case in the group of 200.

This is becuase 100 mSv gives you an additional 1 in 200 chance of getting a cancer.

The problem is that about 30 % of the population get cancer anyway at some point in their lives so the extra case would be impossible to spot amoung the 60 or so normal cancer cases.

I suspect that the doses which the US military people got were smaller than 100 mSv from the accident, for these people the risk of cancer from the Fukushima accident is even smaller.

I think it will be impossible to prove that the cancers were caused by the accident in a court of law.

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