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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

To think statistically there is no point in buying a lottery ticket.

44 replies

LynetteScavo · 08/07/2013 19:07

I have a friend I've known for 20 years.

A few years ago, a friend of my friend won a large amount of money on the national lottery.

Statistically, it would be unlikely for my friend to have two good friends who won large amounts on the lottery, wouldn't it? Even more unlikely than winning at all?

OP posts:
Gingerandcocoa · 08/07/2013 19:10

Statistically, I don't think it makes a difference if your friend knows zero lottery winners or a million lottery winners. Her odds of winning are still the same as anyone else's. The only thing that influences your odds of winning is playing!

(if there are any statisticians MNers around, I'd be interested in knowing if this is not the case!)

MelanieCheeks · 08/07/2013 19:10

That's not how probability works at all.

If I win on the lottery this week, I am just as likely to win agin next week.

ecclesvet · 08/07/2013 19:11

I think that, although there's obviously no point in buying a lottery ticket anyway, her odds wouldn't change just because her friend won.

StealthPolarBear · 08/07/2013 19:13

You can leave the threax title as it is and its still correct

StealthPolarBear · 08/07/2013 19:15

Imagine throwing a dice 100 times. Chances of throwing 100 heads are so small as to be impossible. But if you did throw 99 heads, the chances of your hundredth throw landing heads are still one in two.

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 08/07/2013 19:16

Some people even win twice.

pouffepants · 08/07/2013 19:16

Your chances of throwing a head on a dice are pretty slim.

StealthPolarBear · 08/07/2013 19:18

Ah damn :o

Post in haste repent at leisure

StealthPolarBear · 08/07/2013 19:18

Hopefully my point still makes sense.

Original poster
LynetteScavo · 08/07/2013 19:22

ecclesvet it wasn't my friends odds I was thinking about...it was mine. Grin

OP posts:
Original poster
LynetteScavo · 08/07/2013 19:23

OldLadyKnowsNothing that give me hope. One day I too might be able to afford to have my eyebrows waxed.

OP posts:
maddening · 08/07/2013 19:26

There's always the same approx 13.5 million to 1 chance of any number combination (for lottery not euro) coming up. Statistically 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 could be the numbers drawn.

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 08/07/2013 19:28

People wax their eyebrows? Shock

Original poster
LynetteScavo · 08/07/2013 19:30

OldLadyKnowsNothing take a look at the lottery winner in that link, and tell me his eye brows aren't waxed.

OP posts:
Twattybollocks · 08/07/2013 19:32

Buy it, you never know. I knew 2 people who had won, not close friends I grant you, but friends none the less. Then I won. When I say won, I mean jackpot win, not a tenner.

HappyAsASandboy · 08/07/2013 19:33

You have the same chance of winning each week (barring the variation in number of tickets sold), regardless of who won last week (it might even have been you!).

The probabilities multiply as the number of events increases. So using small numbers to keep it simple, if you have a one in ten chance (1/10) of winning in any one week:

Chance of winning in week 1 = 1/10
Chance of winning in week 2 = 1/10
Chance of winning both weeks = 1/10 x 1/10 = 1/100

But the fact that its less likely that you'll win twice than win once is different to saying you are less likely to win this week because you won last week. That's where everyone gets confused with probability!

CreatureRetorts · 08/07/2013 19:35

The odds are so small there's no point full stop. Doesn't stop me though!
Good luck! Grin

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 08/07/2013 19:36

Oh, eek, I didn't notice when I linked, just glanced through the story...

MrsTerryPratchett · 08/07/2013 19:40

Yes, SPB the point does make sense.

People mistake the issue with odds. If I had to predict the odds that this person would have two friends that would win in the future, it would be very high odds. but, someone's friends have to so looking at it after the fact, not statistically unlikely that someone's friends both won.

Your odds are minuscule regardless. The same amount of minuscule regardless.

My favorite stats issue.

Debsndan · 08/07/2013 19:46

YANBU. It's a tax on the poor.

StealthPolarBear · 08/07/2013 19:47

may I draw your attention to this thread

MrsTerryPratchett · 08/07/2013 19:50

Oooooo SPB that's my kind of thread.

MojitoMagnet · 08/07/2013 19:59

The odds don't change depending on any of these factors.

The odds of winning the jackpot on the standard lotto are 1 in 13,983,815 - but the winner will be pretty completely random. However, random events can and do cluster - it is perfectly possible for a combination that has won before to win again, and perfectly possible for the friend, brother, neighbour or colleague of a winner to also be a winner. It's just that the odds are SO remote that winners tend to be quite few in number.

There is obviously no point in buying a lottery ticket if the only reason to buy it is because you think you might win the jackpot.

There is a point in buying a lottery ticket if you:
a) have fun fantasising about what you would do if you won (acknowledging that you never actually will but getting pleasure out of the make-believe)
b) enjoy the occasional winning of £10 - the odds of which are one in a few hundred so it will happen once every few years if you are a regular player
c) like the idea of contributing your £1 towards the freedom-from-wage-slavery that the lucky winner, who you will probably never even meet, gets.

Trills · 08/07/2013 20:01

YABU and you don't understand statistics.

trackies · 08/07/2013 20:04

Statistically it makes no difference to your odds that your friend has another friend who has one the lottery so dont give up buying just cos of that

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