To be confused about the measles epidemic in Wales?

[Reallynothappy]

I've started seeing some comments on news articles about the epidemic, that there are nowhere near as many actual confirmed cases of measles as were originally reported; many lab samples have returned a negative result for measles, and that the poor man who died from measles had an inconclusive post mortem, and apparently didn't have measles after all.
I don't doubt measles can have serious complications and is very unpleasant, before anyone thinks I don't understand that.
Has anyone on mn been affected by this current outbreak that can give us an idea what the situation is for them?
If many of these people who originally were thought to have measles turned out not to, then what did they have?
There is clearly an outbreak of something, but it doesn't seem to be just measles.

Has the epidemic been exaggerated?

I have seen reports that it is all faked but they are posted by those against vaccination and I think it very irresponsible of them. The inquest has not been held yet on the man who died- time was needed for further tests.
Regardless of how many cases there are in Wales, it is definitely in my area. From reports I have heard, personally, from different areas there are lots of cases. There shouldn't be any- there haven't been for decades before now.

Of all the confirmed cases I know of only one was tested and that was due to it being a non typical presention and other underlying health issues. All the others were GP diagnosed.

As other posters have pointed out testing is only done now where there is doubt.

I'm in Powys and we have had a fair few cases.

Prior to this outbreak GPs have actually been reluctant to suggest measles round here. I think you should probably question the normal numbers OP because I think they are artificially low.

I am in the outbreak area - no it's not being exaggerated, many children have been very ill with measles. A family fried has had an operation cancelled because of the pressure on intensive care beds due to measles cases.

I really don't see why you want to play down the seriousness of this outbreak..........

People want to play it down because they are anti vaccination. I think that the authorities are underplaying it and there are far more cases.
They are not exaggerated in my area- they are true.

Who wants to play down the seriousness of this outbreak?

I don't think anyone wants to do this anymore than you are suggesting the outbreak should be exaggerated (are you?)

What is being asked is, is it possible there are fewer cases than are being reported (according to some on the thread not all cases are lab confirmed)?

Surely everyone wants to see accurate information in the media...

Case definition of measles helps to identify cases for notification but clinical diagnosis is unreliable, particularly in countries with low incidence of the disease, so laboratory confirmation is required

Lab confirmation obviously doesn't happen much, more cases have been tested in the latest outbreak, showing [apparently?] that a large number of suspected measles cases are not in fact measles.

As others have said viral rashes are common and in the event of an outbreak you can see why measles would be assumed.

I really don't see how you can 'guess' without lab confirmation with a notifiable disease though?

Surely all cases should be confirmed before they are added to any kind of list?

When I said about largest outbreak for one years, I wasn't referring to the total number cases across the whole of England and Wales (as in table linked by another poster).

I meant outbreak in a particular locality. For example, in London (low vax rates, high population arriving from countries with inadequate accident programmes, general hub), the typical size of an outbreak is about 30 cases, and this happens every year without making the news.

The Welsh outbreak is over ten times that size in a much smaller and less densely populated area. It is the largest outbreak - in terms of grouped cases - for many years.

I think that the authorities are underplaying it and there are far more cases

Why do you think they would do that exotic?

They don't want to cause mass panic - I doubt they could cope with it at the moment.

Do you think?

I think if they were going to do that, then the released stats of confirmed cases would tally with the numbers of suspected, not really much lower so as to make some people think the opposite....

I don't know, I dont think there is any conspiracy on either side personally, I think that there are obviously some people who did have measles, but that many cases were misdiagnosed by GPs with a heightened expectation that it would be measles.

Why would there be a mass panic, Exotic? And what exactly would "they" not be able to cope with? It's not as if we would all turn up at A&E demanding treatment - cos there isn't any.

Has anyone died yet? (apart from the man who was ill anyway)

"Usually, a notification of measles is laboratory confirmed (or not) by sending a sample for virological testing. However, due to the high numbers of notifications reported during an outbreak, it is possible that not all clinically-diagnosed cases will undergo subsequent laboratory testing. It is probable that not all cases notified on the basis of clinical symptoms will be due to measles infection and this maybe true especially for notifications from outside the outbreak area."

www.wales.nhs.uk/sitesplus/888/page/66389#a

I don't think there would be panic either - after all they said they were disappointed by the number of 10-17 years old (supposedly the biggest at risk group) presenting for vaccination.

Thank you noblegiraffe - have been trying to find an explanation like that for the last week or so. There is a bit of a discussion about actual numbers going on on the BMJ website at the moment.

In my area they have had to have a special clinic for the secondary school pupils and they have been ,sensibly, getting it done. I doubt they have the staff and vaccine to replicate it all over the country. My friend has had to have her baby vaccinated after coming into contact - and have it done herself.

They set up the clinic in the school.

I think that both sides should stop using it for propaganda- whether they are pro vaccination or have conspiracy theories- they are both as bad as each other.

It makes me wonder how often a mild case of measles is diagnosed as a viral rash when there isn't a measles epidemic going on, if the doctors can't tell the difference. I've taken poorly children to the doctor with a rash and been told "it's a virus" which in our family is code for "I haven't a clue but I've got to say something" after we had a GP who seemed to diagnose everything either as 'a virus' or 'only to be expected at your age' depending on the family member. When we got home from a GP visit we would be asked "Well is it a virus, or your age?"

I'm in the nw, & DP says about a third of the staff at his work (hospital) have been off with measles.

Which is why I'm convinced that there are more cases than we know about, Arabella, I know a doctor in a other area who has a lot of cases.
The 'conspiracy' person that I know tries to make out that we have always had the odd case, but in all my years of teaching I haven't known a single case.

Really Arabella?

A third? of adults, I wonder what their vaccination status was then? I thought HCPs had to have all their vacs up to date?

A third of staff? But surely a good chunk of hospital staff are old enough to have had measles (I had it and I'm not that old). And surely the others should be vaccinated. If they're adult staff they're 'pre-Wakefield'. Why are they all catching measles?

HCP's don't have to have vacs up to date Amber - but I think it's fair to say the majority working as HCP's will be vaccinated.

Ah ok! I can see why it would be a good idea for them to be for sure.

Yes, why would so many adults get measles?