to wonder if the recession is coming or going?

[thomasbodley]

Seriously, which way would you call it?

I'm thinking the shit hasn't even begun to hit the fan yet. My clients and my husband's clients (household brands and multi-national businesses) are cutting back at every opportunity. No work pipeline beyond the next quarter for either of us. Food and petrol at prices that shock me every time I pay.

Yet all around me, I see bars and restaurants full to bursting. Houses in my skanky Zone 2 London street selling at a 15% premium on 2007 prices. Friends off ski-ing and to long haul destinations in the sun again. Every man and his dog installing a loft extension.

Is the feelgood factor back and if so, who forgot to tell me ?

No idea. And if you listen to the news they tell you something different every day

My work has followed the recession perfectly with how its hit us (combined with perfect storm of technology changes not helping). We've been on reduced hours for nearly a year now. The worst months nationally have been our worst months. We are now the worst position we have been in, with HMCR threatening baliffs (they are the only ones being bastards too I might add). The months before Christmas were truly awful. We've watched business after business go bust round us - suppliers, customers and competitors.

But this month is shaping up to be the best month we've had in the last 18. If we can survive then I do think I'm a lot more optimist than I would have been 3 months ago.

However I don't think we are in control of our own destiny at all right now. I think it all hinges on what happens in Greece and the rest of Europe now.

Impossible to tell which way thats going to go.

Loft extensions are cheaper than moving house. Perhaps that is why they are happening so much?

I agree, the shit will really hit the fan eventually.

We're worse off due to tax credit cuts, rising fuel, insurance and food prices and will be even worse off when the CSA charges kick in.

I'm cutting back as my bank account is squealing for mercy every month. I know it will get worse, I just have to cross my fingers we can muddle through.

I think it's going to get worse. The cuts will hit this year, people will lose their jobs.

I feel like I'm spending more and more on food.

I only work three hours a day and everyone else at my workplace is having their hours cut too. Thank God I'm starting a PGCE this year or I'd be really worried.

Is the feelgood factor just a London thing, based on the property price increases (all due to the artificially suppressed interest rate but not yet showing any signs of spontaneously combusting)?

Macbookdeath, would you be prepared to reveal your industry? What you had to say was really interesting and kind of hopeful.

Move to Dublin, then you'll have a different answer!

It's been bad for us as we both lost our jobs thanks to cuts and most people I know are under threat of redundancy or cutting back for various reasons. Fuel is just about enough to cripple anyone isn't it?

I think there is a lot of talking things up at the moment - a desperate attempt to keep us all spending and take us out of the gloom of winter.

On a personal level, I can't see things getting any better for us in the near future - there are simply no jobs out there in my field of work. For others, the only people I know with some steady work are builders (building loft extensions!) and NHS workers.

We're still in the recession imo.

YANBU - definitely going to get worse. Think a lot of people have their heads in the sand though. Also know a lot of people who had tracker mortgages that have had lots of extra spending money available for a couple of years now though because of this.

Things are going to get a lot worse for families when the cuts to tax credits come rumbling through, most families get them so... plus lot's of other cuts and the proposed public sector job losses largely haven't happened yet.

We are going to double dip imho.

(However I also think the economy is fine, it depends on how you look at things)

Is the csa charges thing Devinate now then? Do you know the full details? There is going to be problems with tax credit cuts also, and apparently only a few of the publicnsector jobs have been cut so far, many more to come apparently.

I was thinking about this today as I looked around Belfast City Centre. The shops were just heaving. Granted, nearly everything is on sale prices right now, so that may be a factor, but I haven't seen it this busy except at Christmas.

I know we are having problems, with prices rising and salaries standing still.

It's really very bizarre, I think.

Yes CSA changes were passed.

They've said fees will be waived for single parents on the lowest incomes (but not what that income level will be) instead of the original £50 for parents on benefits and £100 for those not.

Its probably because of cheap mortgages so a lot of people have more money

Will the CSA be taking percentages each month as well?

Mouse - I believe so, the Lords amendments getting rid of them were rejected. There is no published official final details though.

Oh there is also a wavier for any fees/charges for single parents who have left DV. (I imagine you would need police evidence.)

When I go shopping I see plenty of people but I very rarely see anyone with lots of bags. Just one or two.

I know the lords defeat was overturned, then it all went quiet, other than the government was going to use little used laws to go ahead anyways, I would hope they will back down a bit with the csa monthly taxation of the chidrens minimum maintenance. Are NRP being charged still?

Coming. The worst is yet to come. The government is feeding us the best case scenario to keep people from panicking. imo.

I think you'll see the top doing well (hence your ski-ing friends) and the middle and bottom struggling as they're the ones who will be losing out on tax credits, losing public sector jobs etc.