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What is covid going to do to education this year?

112 replies

Sidslaw · 05/09/2023 17:01

We are already multiple teachers down, with this new strain. It is only the first week. What is going to happen? I would like to hope it goes around once, and then we get our balance back, but if it keeps mutating and going around again and again, schools are like petri dishes.

OP posts:
Angrymum22 · 07/09/2023 10:58

Sidslaw · 07/09/2023 05:21

I doubt that very much. Did you see my word " unprecedented" ? Covid has been here for several years now, and we have never had anything like this among sixth formers. Year 12s don't want to miss their first week, whatever is wrong with them

I’m sorry but after replying to your post I did a quick review of current data and you really are scaremongering regarding the recorded infection rates. Most people will not self report so the actual infection rates are probably lower than they actually are, but it’s the hospitalised data that is most reliable. There has been a mild spike between July and August, most likely related to travel. Remember the cases that are hospitalised are in the 65+ age group very few people under that age end up in hospital and in addition hospital cases are often incidental to the cause of admission.
The hospital admissions of patients with Covid ( not just because of Covid) are at the lowest since 2020. It doesn’t mean that we are not on the verge of another spike, experts predicted that we may experience spikes for up to five years, but hospitalisations have plateaued. Deaths have also plateaued suggesting that the peak of infection may have been July.
The last big spike was Jan 2022 nearly two years ago. The vaccine and the weakening of the virus are both responsible for the reduced infection rates. Vaccination of vulnerable population will start soon, remember that these are boosting immunity not conferring it. The evidence that the vaccination program has been successful is plain to see. There will always be a small percentage who do not seroconvert or whose immune system are knackered due to extreme age.
Your individual circumstances have made your views extremely subjective. Please don’t scaremonger.

Sidslaw · 07/09/2023 11:03

Angrymum22 · 07/09/2023 10:58

I’m sorry but after replying to your post I did a quick review of current data and you really are scaremongering regarding the recorded infection rates. Most people will not self report so the actual infection rates are probably lower than they actually are, but it’s the hospitalised data that is most reliable. There has been a mild spike between July and August, most likely related to travel. Remember the cases that are hospitalised are in the 65+ age group very few people under that age end up in hospital and in addition hospital cases are often incidental to the cause of admission.
The hospital admissions of patients with Covid ( not just because of Covid) are at the lowest since 2020. It doesn’t mean that we are not on the verge of another spike, experts predicted that we may experience spikes for up to five years, but hospitalisations have plateaued. Deaths have also plateaued suggesting that the peak of infection may have been July.
The last big spike was Jan 2022 nearly two years ago. The vaccine and the weakening of the virus are both responsible for the reduced infection rates. Vaccination of vulnerable population will start soon, remember that these are boosting immunity not conferring it. The evidence that the vaccination program has been successful is plain to see. There will always be a small percentage who do not seroconvert or whose immune system are knackered due to extreme age.
Your individual circumstances have made your views extremely subjective. Please don’t scaremonger.

How am I scare mongering? I looked at the government data. I am under 65 and possibly going into hospital today. One member of staff in my school is already in hospital, and they are under 50

OP posts:
Angrymum22 · 07/09/2023 11:10

EducatingArti · 07/09/2023 07:35

I'm really not sure that your information is correct here.

royalsociety.org/blog/2022/02/the-role-of-sars-cov-2-aerosol-transmission-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/

https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj-2021-068743

There are lots of other articles out there but the Nature one is under a paywall and I have chosen two from prestigious organisations to show it is not just cranky corners of the internet saying this!

The most important thing that schools can do right now is introduce as much ventilation as possible into rooms. As winter approaches, at least investing in properly calibrated and set up CO2 meters will indicate when rooms are in critical need of ventilation ( so windows can be opened wide then even just for 5 minutes).

I'd also wonder about looking into how effective HEPA air filters are and maybe trying to get PTAs or similar to raise funds for them. They'd be a few hundred pounds per room which would be expensive but probably less so than the costs of supply teaching if a school gets hit badly.

Your reference from the BMJ is interesting. Throughout the pandemic GPS have used every excuse to avoid face to face consultations. The aerosol issue was not relevant to GP practice but directly relevant to surgery involving aerosol production in operating theatres and dental surgeries. in dental surgeries where the most aerosols are produced and likely to affect both the operator and patients we were pretty much back to normal mid 2022. All restrictions had been lifted because there just wasn’t the evidence of transmission. However in clinical areas we wipe down surfaces between patient, but most importantly we wipe door handles.
Staff have contracted Covid but usually from family members not patients. We have stopped screening for Covid but we have always had a policy of not treating patients who have obvious viral symptoms.
GPs, on the other hand, are still doing their best to avoid direct contact with the public and use “research” to justify this.

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Angrymum22 · 07/09/2023 11:21

Sidslaw · 07/09/2023 11:03

How am I scare mongering? I looked at the government data. I am under 65 and possibly going into hospital today. One member of staff in my school is already in hospital, and they are under 50

The use of the word “unprecedented” is triggering. This summer has seen a large number of teenagers attending festivals. Their social lives are back to normal, many will have had a normal summer for the first time in three years. They will have travel abroad. So many opportunities to pick up any number of viruses. DS 18 came back from Greece in July with an awful chest infection which we all caught. He went to Boardmasters and caught a cold. Fortunately we have avoided the fallout from the Reading festival.
Sixth formers are far more socially and sexually active than younger pupils so viruses spread rapidly. This summer has been their first normal summer where all restrictions have been lifted. They are also the least vaccinated since they were under 15 when the vaccine was rolled out.

EducatingArti · 07/09/2023 11:23

But it is also backed up by the Royal Society info I posted and many others including an article in Nature, which I didn't include because of paywall. None of these have the GP axe to grind.

Angrymum22 · 07/09/2023 11:26

I’m sorry that you are being hospitalised but you are immunosuppressed so in an at risk group. Hopefully the antivirals will work.
Im not disputing that you are experiencing a problem locally but the picture is not bleak generally.

Sidslaw · 07/09/2023 11:26

Angrymum22 · 07/09/2023 11:21

The use of the word “unprecedented” is triggering. This summer has seen a large number of teenagers attending festivals. Their social lives are back to normal, many will have had a normal summer for the first time in three years. They will have travel abroad. So many opportunities to pick up any number of viruses. DS 18 came back from Greece in July with an awful chest infection which we all caught. He went to Boardmasters and caught a cold. Fortunately we have avoided the fallout from the Reading festival.
Sixth formers are far more socially and sexually active than younger pupils so viruses spread rapidly. This summer has been their first normal summer where all restrictions have been lifted. They are also the least vaccinated since they were under 15 when the vaccine was rolled out.

I said "unprecedented" because it is "unprecedented" - as in never in my career have I seen year 12 attendance dip so low in the first week of term

OP posts:
Sidslaw · 07/09/2023 11:28

Angrymum22 · 07/09/2023 11:26

I’m sorry that you are being hospitalised but you are immunosuppressed so in an at risk group. Hopefully the antivirals will work.
Im not disputing that you are experiencing a problem locally but the picture is not bleak generally.

well, I am hoping it is not that bleak locally either - I feel reassured having spoken to a relative who teaches in Scotland who was in a school hit hard by covid in the first week of term, bit says everything was back to normal by week 3

Hopefully it is just a blip, and not the start of a regular cycle

OP posts:
Angrymum22 · 07/09/2023 11:55

EducatingArti · 07/09/2023 11:23

But it is also backed up by the Royal Society info I posted and many others including an article in Nature, which I didn't include because of paywall. None of these have the GP axe to grind.

Aerosols in surgery and dentistry have been an issue for decades. It was only during Covid that it was decided we were at risk. They closed us down for three months but then over the pandemic decided that the risk was not as serious as first thought.
We wear masks and face guards to stop our faces being plastered with blood, saliva and the detritus found in body cavities., we are not stupid enough to believe that a thin bit of fibre cloth is going to protect us from viruses.
If it was a serious risk to surgeons and dentists they would still be closed or operating at a pace that would seriously affect the nations health.
It’s interesting that many patients comment on the fact we are “still” wearing masks, we have been wearing face masks for the last 15+years no one noticed.
If we took the research seriously most dental practices would have closed permanently and the NHS waiting lists for procedures where aerosols are produced would be decades long.
My DH had a stroke last year, he has had routine checks with the practice nurse but at no point has his GP asked to see him face to face to assess him. This means that going forward they have no physical baseline to work from. We recently applied for a PIP which was declined because his GP hadn’t observed him and couldn’t comment. I attempted to make a face to face app for him but the new process of making an appointment means that it was not deemed necessary.
In our GP practice you have to phone reception, the receptionist puts in a request, the request is triaged and a GP will determine if you need face to face. Each time DH has been given a phone consult because a) he’s not ill and b) he is considered v vulnerable.
It’s frustrating.

Angrymum22 · 07/09/2023 12:05

Sidslaw · 07/09/2023 11:28

well, I am hoping it is not that bleak locally either - I feel reassured having spoken to a relative who teaches in Scotland who was in a school hit hard by covid in the first week of term, bit says everything was back to normal by week 3

Hopefully it is just a blip, and not the start of a regular cycle

Hopefully it is just the fallout from the “festivals”. The virus my DS brought back from Greece was far worse than Covid. DS has had Covid a few times and has had nothing but a sniffle. This virus put him ( and the rest of us) in bed for a week but none of us tested positive for Covid. It’s likely that your sixth formers are assuming it’s Covid, most parents will not pay out for tests but will assume it’s Covid. I certainly would have put DS’s Zante flu down to Covid or over doing things, but after he shared it with us it was defo a nasty dose of something.
It was a really nasty chest infection with a very mild cold like start. I struggled to sleep for a few nights and the cough caused rib pain and was exhausting. If I had been at work would defo have had time off.

Sidslaw · 07/09/2023 12:08

I think the assumption is that the virus that has swept our school this week is all covid, although very few people have tested. I tested because I need anti virals, and got a strong positive, one other person is in hospital, and has tested positive there, and only one or two other people have actually tested, and they are positive too - most people who are ill have not tested, but the assumption is we have all got the same thing

OP posts:
AussieManque · 07/09/2023 13:22

@Angrymum22 breathing generates aerosols. So any enclosed space is a risky space, including GP surgeries.

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