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Mortgage rates could reach 7% by christmas

257 replies

Oddsockday · 11/07/2023 16:53

Just depressed myself by watching the news and seeing the rate now at 6.65%.
What will happen if it does reach 9%?

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Pl242 · 11/07/2023 23:12

It’s all very depressing. Our 5 year fix runs out next spring. We’re currently paying 2% and I’d been working on the assumption that we could hopefully fix at something starting with a 4. Our youngest starts school this year so I’d bargained that we could make up extra money on mortgage from nursery bills we soon won’t be paying.

But all those projections seem to have been blown out of the water in a matter of weeks. To think I felt sorry for friends remortgaging this year and end of last! I’d kill for a rate starting with a 4 now but feel like we’ve missed the chance.

I feel our options are to see what we can get 6 months out and keep that on hold until Spring (but I’ve moved from employed to running a business since we last applied so May not be able to apply until nearer the time) or pay our variable rate when fix runs out whilst hoping they come back down.

However that rate seems to be 3.25% over base so if it hits 6.5 day, then we’d be paying 9.75%!!!! I’ve no idea if we can afford to carry that. Probably no more than a few months and what if the projections don’t bare out. I mean the one I had been working to, ie inflation reducing by end of this year hasn’t so who the hell knows.

Feeling a bit sorry for ourselves but know we’re far from the worst impacted. Feeling for those in panic mode. Can relate.

StarDolphins · 11/07/2023 23:20

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StarDolphins · 11/07/2023 23:20

*op not me

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Hungrycaterpillarsmummy · 11/07/2023 23:21

@Pl242 where are you getting the rate above being 3.25%?
Its usually 0.5% above the base rate...

Pl242 · 11/07/2023 23:25

@Hungrycaterpillarsmummy with my lender their variable rate is currently 8.25% vs the base rate of 5%. Hence my assumption that this rate could be 3.25% higher than base rate.

Pl242 · 11/07/2023 23:27

@Hungrycaterpillarsmummy in this article Martin Lewis says most variable rates are currently 7.5-8.5% which tracks with my lender. So if the base goes up another 1% these will too I suppose.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/mortgages/getting-ready-remortgage/

Hungrycaterpillarsmummy · 11/07/2023 23:28

Pl242 · 11/07/2023 23:25

@Hungrycaterpillarsmummy with my lender their variable rate is currently 8.25% vs the base rate of 5%. Hence my assumption that this rate could be 3.25% higher than base rate.

Oh I see yeh but you wouldn't go for the variable in that situation!
Make sure you get with a broker 6 months before your fix ends and lock in a deal asap!

Pl242 · 11/07/2023 23:32

@Hungrycaterpillarsmummy i am going to look into it (we’re more like 8 months out) but my employment status has changed so I might not be able to apply until nearer the time - need to clarify that, now at top of my to do list.

But would paying 9.25 for a few months possibly be better than fixing at 6.75 if rates come back down later in 2024? Trying to get my head around the options.

Hungrycaterpillarsmummy · 11/07/2023 23:35

They wouldn't fall that quickly. Although I don't expect them to go as high as 9.25 anyway.
The longer the fix the lower the rate too!

Pl242 · 11/07/2023 23:39

@Hungrycaterpillarsmummy yes. Not saying a fixed rate of 9.25. But if that was variable rate vs base of say 6.5. Whether it would be worth the pain of paying an awful rate for a few months in the hope that they would come down to say 4.5 for a fixed rate. So much to think about!

Blossomtoes · 12/07/2023 00:09

KingJamesTheTurd · 11/07/2023 19:49

This is SO not true. My mortgage in the 90s was £140k, and that was with a massive deposit (by then, I was married and ex H and I both sold properties and had a big deposit). So not a patch on 400k mortgage, but bear in mind I had a high-flying professional job which paid a mere £27k pa...

Really? I don’t remember lenders allowing that kind of salary multiple. I first bought in 1991 and was offered 2.5 times salary.

OddsOn · 12/07/2023 07:55

I bought in 1999 as a newly wed with us both earning 19k per annum a house for 62k in the East Midlands. I remember being annoyed that house prices had gone up a lot then as my friends had bought a house of the same size in the next street for only 42k 2 years before. Does anyone know what started to happen in the very late nineties because that’s when it started. Just two years later the absolute craziness began with the exact house next door to us sold for exactly double what we paid for ours at 124k.

KingJamesTheTurd · 12/07/2023 08:22

Blossomtoes · 12/07/2023 00:09

Really? I don’t remember lenders allowing that kind of salary multiple. I first bought in 1991 and was offered 2.5 times salary.

Yes - maximum 3 x salary was the general rule. I was married by then (too complicated to explain the finances, but my salary was the one that counted, and we had a good mortgage advisor).

Blossomtoes · 12/07/2023 08:40

KingJamesTheTurd · 12/07/2023 08:22

Yes - maximum 3 x salary was the general rule. I was married by then (too complicated to explain the finances, but my salary was the one that counted, and we had a good mortgage advisor).

He must have been a magician - or an excellent liar. Of course you could get away with all sorts in those days, no affordability checks for a start.

Kissedbyfire1 · 12/07/2023 08:51

IncessantNameChanger · 11/07/2023 21:21

That's amazing, I didn't know you could do that. I'm very jealous right now. LC was amazed with our 5 year fix

We fixed for 10 years last July just before Liz Truss performed her magic. We got 2.79% which looked a bit toppish at the time! 10 years was the remaining term but with overpayments we know we will actually be out of it in 4. However, 10 years gave us the flexibility combined with certainly that we were looking for.
It’s normal in some other countries to fix for the entire term of a mortgage.

Chatillon · 12/07/2023 08:55

OddsOn · 12/07/2023 07:55

I bought in 1999 as a newly wed with us both earning 19k per annum a house for 62k in the East Midlands. I remember being annoyed that house prices had gone up a lot then as my friends had bought a house of the same size in the next street for only 42k 2 years before. Does anyone know what started to happen in the very late nineties because that’s when it started. Just two years later the absolute craziness began with the exact house next door to us sold for exactly double what we paid for ours at 124k.

Economies were opening up around the world, including Russia and China. The start of the internet enabled B2B and consumers wider access to markets. Goods were in strong supply and markets were more accessible (compared to now where both goods and services are in shorter supply). Inflation was pretty much licked, compared to the past. Those in need of capital, from the smaller business person to global companies had a strong incentive not to recycle existing capital, but to borrow more. The Dot.com bubble burst in late 1999, but it sowed the seeds in societies' minds that a new era was coming, coupled with a new millennia.

This lead to massive worldwide economic confidence - it was not a UK thing. With a liberal and potentially expansive market ahead, central banks started to make much more money available and to encourage take up it was issued cheaply. That and very lax credit control created a boom in personal borrowing, particularly in the UK (this is where we were different). Borrowing was largely unregulated for home ownership - you self-certified you were in business projected to earn £120k a year and you would get a mortgage of £400k within the week. In some regions house price growth was 30% in 2002 and 20% in 2003. You wanted a new car, even the building society would deposit funds within 5 days.

Demand was further fuelled by the expansion of the state - not just the UK again. Public sector employees increased as states could afford to borrow to employ. Large capital investment programmes were planned, roads, airports, hospitals all on borrowed money. HS2 for example was planned in these years, to military precision, before it was announced in 2009.

Then we had a heady mix of globalisation, a new era, confidence and consensus on cheap money. Cheaper than we have seen before.

What we have now, particularly in the UK is reduced markets (that may get worse), fewer goods and services, high borrowing costs to repay - don't forget national debt is £90,000 per household - and no confidence. The latter is down to a real lack of political leadership and social cohesion in the UK. I will also add that many of our politicians display a real lack of life experiences across the whole spectrum from business skills to social skills.

I do not believe any well informed political party would want to be in power for the next 10 years. It is going to take 15 years for us to recover from what is coming, but recover we will and we all need to make some sensible choices about how we invest our time and our money - time being the most important one.

Chatillon · 12/07/2023 09:01

I will also add, the Great Recession of 2007-2010 caused a reset in how credit could be obtained, but it did not halt it completely. Quantitative Easing was still in abundance right through for another 10 years to Covid.

The recession from 1992-1995 was much more severe for the consumer. It was deeper and more brutal with relatively little state support. It is this type of recession that we are moving into now because there is no capacity for state aid. Those days are over.

Leftbutcameback · 12/07/2023 10:46

It’s so hard to know what to do for the best. Our (very low) fix runs out in 10 months so we’ll start looking in Autumn and I had hoped it would be a bit more settled by then, but it looks unlikely.

I did hear an expert on the radio suggest you can get a deal locked in at 6 months out, and then change your mind before it goes live, which sounds ideal. Has anyone done this? That would mean we could plan for the worst case but still benefit from any improvements in the 6 month period, which might well happen.

Twiglets1 · 12/07/2023 10:56

Leftbutcameback · 12/07/2023 10:46

It’s so hard to know what to do for the best. Our (very low) fix runs out in 10 months so we’ll start looking in Autumn and I had hoped it would be a bit more settled by then, but it looks unlikely.

I did hear an expert on the radio suggest you can get a deal locked in at 6 months out, and then change your mind before it goes live, which sounds ideal. Has anyone done this? That would mean we could plan for the worst case but still benefit from any improvements in the 6 month period, which might well happen.

Martin Lewis suggested this on his show last night. He said you can do it as a sort of Insurance. He said just check with the Lender that’s it’s possible but it normally is

ThreadExterminator · 12/07/2023 11:07

A Nationwide mortgage advisor told me they'd reduced from 6 months to 3 months.

Leftbutcameback · 12/07/2023 11:23

Twiglets1 · 12/07/2023 10:56

Martin Lewis suggested this on his show last night. He said you can do it as a sort of Insurance. He said just check with the Lender that’s it’s possible but it normally is

Thanks very much @Twiglets1 - that’s great to know. I think I need to watch this show on catch up

Leftbutcameback · 12/07/2023 11:24

ThreadExterminator · 12/07/2023 11:07

A Nationwide mortgage advisor told me they'd reduced from 6 months to 3 months.

As in they don’t make offers 6 months out anymore? That wouldn’t surprise me at all. Hard for them to price up the risk 6 months out.

ThreadExterminator · 12/07/2023 11:31

Yes. I had a meeting with them as I was considering switching early and had wondered about just getting the offer sorted and then sitting on it until nearer the time but was told I couldn't.

Twiglets1 · 12/07/2023 11:51

Leftbutcameback · 12/07/2023 11:23

Thanks very much @Twiglets1 - that’s great to know. I think I need to watch this show on catch up

Yes probably a good idea. Then you can just whizz through the boring bits & listen to the bits that interest you

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