Can anyone advise me which gas & electricity tariff to go for?

[AgentPidge]

My current contract with EDF ends 31/8. I've compared my usage on Uswitch and decided to stick with EDF. The problem is that they have four tariffs. The Martin Lewis website predicts gas prices will go up soon, but then come down in October next year. Doesn't say why, but maybe new gas fields coming on? So I could go for a one-year fixed, but it's the most expensive! The others are two-year fixed, or tracked (currently the cheapest, goes up & down), or standard. WWYD?

We are in the same position with EDF and are thinking of going for a two year fixed. EON seem to have fairly comparable deals too.

That's the one I'm leaning towards. The problem is if prices do come down next year, we're stuck. They are all quite a bit more than we're paying atm too.

I looked at Octopus. DS is convinced they're cheaper, but when I put in our actual usage (over the past year) they were a little bit more.

@AgentPidge DM is with Scottish Power and fixed until Aug ‘27 on a higher rate than we are with EDF and the new rate EDF are offering. I’ve been looking at USwitch through Quidco to get some cash back too.
For us, the new rate is the same monthly as our usage for the past year which is good however it’s the not knowing if they’ll drop significantly or not.

Given the current world situation, it seems mad to predict that prices will come down (given that food prices are predicted to go through the roof), unless someone knows something that will change this. All I can think of is new North Sea fields coming on stream, but it still all seems a gamble.

How does the 2 Yr fix compare with the standard and the tracked? What's the difference between standard and tracked - whichever one of these is the 'price cap' tariff will mean it moves in line with the price cap every 3 months, so what's the other one doing?

I think we have to accept that the next tariff will be more expensive for those of us fixed a year ago at a good price due to world events since then. Also, if that 2 Yr fix doesn't look expensive compared with standard/tracked it could be a good move as it buys you certainty for 2 years. You also need to bear in mind that any price predictions more than 6 months out are of little worth because who knows what will or won't happen.

What's the exit penalty of the 2 year fix? If it's not huge and the tariff looks expensive in the future, you aren't stuck, you just need to pay the exit penalty to move if prices go down so much, it's worth paying to move. And if they only go down a bit, is it really the end of the world to slightly overpay for G&E, given you've benefitted from a good price for most of the tariff period? It could well be that you're still better off overall for that 2 years.

I don't know what I'd go for without seeing the numbers, but we're now within our last 50 days which means we can sign up to a new tariff penalty free, but I'm not expecting for it to be worth moving until right until the end, because prices have risen a lot since a year ago so sticking where we are for now.