Andy Burnham and whether any Labour seat is still truly safe

[billycat321]

So a safe seat is being made available for Andy Burnham. The recent elections showed there is no such thing as a safe Labour seat any more. What a bummer if it went to Reform

The last by-election in the area was won by the Green Party. So don't rule that out as a possibility if those in the area don't want Reform or a carpetbagger.

This is the wiki page for the constituency that Andy Burnham is presumed to be standing in:

Makerfield (constituency) - Wikipedia

As you can see, the last GE gave these results:

Labour
Josh Simons
18,202
45.2
−0.1

Reform
Robert Kenyon
12,803
31.8
+18.7

Conservative
Simon Finkelstein
4,379
10.9
−23.4

Liberal Democrats
John Skipworth
2,735
6.8
+2.0

Green
Maria Deery
1,776
4.4
+1.8

It will be very interesting to see how all of this plays out - especially if the change of PM happens before the by-election.

I have a nasty feeling that all this will achieve is to lose Labour both the Makerfield seat and the Manchester mayor's job.

As for Burnham himself, he's had two shots already at trying to become Labour leader and failed both times. Given that he left Westminster for Manchester when he really should have stayed on as an MP, it doesn't say a lot for his political ability.

If he ever should manage to make it to No 10 (& I wouldn't put money on it) I think he will turn out to be "Starmer Mk 2".

I think these manoeuvres will be a turn off, as they demonstrate a desperation that is deeply unattractive. And Kier Starmer is showing himself to be quite astute by holding steady in the face of the pressure he’s under.

On another thread a poster made an excellent point that it looks like non of the actual MPs with a seat are not suitable for pm and they have to launch an expensive by election for vanity.

Makerfield is far from a safe seat. In last week's local council elections all 11 wards in the constituency voted in a Reform councillor.

I don't want Keir to be leader of the Labour party. I actually like him as the mayor.

This was discussed widely on R4 yesterday -it is a risk but AB is a local lad and very popular locally too apparently 🤷‍♀️.

I get that, but I think there is a good chance that people locally will vote for Burnham rather than consider they are voting for Labour if that makes sense. They like and trust him as an individual. Hes done great things for Manchester. I think they’ll put aside any worry about the Labour Party. Especially if they know he has a good chance of becoming prime minister and could steer the Labour Party in hopefully a better direction. Even if some people like Reform/Farage I think they like Burnham better.

As PM he won't have time to help Manchester any more.

Maybe his potential constituents would prefer he remained the mayor.

I can see more people voting to get the PM as their MP than voting for the labour candidate, so he may be ok, but if the greens take a few on the left and Reform a few on the right this could be quite funny for a Labour hater to watch - particularly if he has to give up until mayoralty to stand and they lose that too. People generally punish unnecessarily elections.

I see your point, however I live in this constituency and I see and hear what people are saying and their feelings towards Labour now. I think its a very very strong possibility that we will end up with a Reform MP here unfortunately.

I think it’s shocking how he and Labour are treating the makerfield voters. Using it as a stepping stone to number ten with no desire to do the job of their local mp, and taking the voters for granted.

i don’t think he will get in, the behaviour is so self serving, i think they will turn out in their droves to stop it, vote reform, and keep him out.

I think it's an utterly bizarre decision and that Reform will win.

I worry that expectations are proving too high for Andy.