Worldwide impact of Iran war

[IAxolotlQuestions]

I’ve been trying to track the impact of the mess in Iran on the world economy and have been finding it somewhat hard. UK press seems to not quite understand how fundamental the shipping out of Hormuz and the Red Sea actually is - and seem to think we’re insulated.

But the fuel/fertiliser crisis is starting to bite. I know that Egypt, the Phillippines and Sri Lanka have imposed fuel restrictions and told shops to shut etc, but it’s really hard to get a clear picture.

So I’m starting a thread for anyone who has info to post/wants to keep abreast of this topic. If you have links to actual new stories/government announcements I’d love to see them.

Ideally, I’d like it to not devolve into ‘orange man bad’ ‘evil ayatollah’ please. There’s plenty Of other threads for that.

The Philippines declared a national emergency last Tuesday due to the threat to their energy security. They estimate they will have completely run out of oil reserves within 40 days - petrol, aircraft fuel and diesel.

I’m in Thailand and in Chiang Mai there are queues at petrol stations maybe 20-30 cars long

What do they use for day to day fuel in the power stations?

Has there been any Thai-based discussion as to whether the queues are warranted/fuel is about to run out?

Well if nothing else this will have shown the Iranians how much power they have. The fact that they are able to potentially bring the world's economy to it's knees is incredibly worrying.

The other ME states that are being attacked show no inclination to strike back and the rest of the world seems powerless to intervene.

I am interested in how this is affecting the Chinese. This could be an opportunity for them to increase their power as I understand that their energy supplies are much more coal based. I am not sure where their oil comes from as they previously imported from Venezuela.

It just shows that whilst globalisation may have some benefits, particularly for the wealthy, it also has some very major downsides.

Interesting thread.

Unfortunately for the Philippines, they get nearly all their oil from the Middle East so the Strait of Hormuz being almost completely closed (apart from allies of Iran) means they have hit crisis point with fuel supplies really quickly. The UK isn't in the same boat as we get most of our oil from Norway and the US. However we are still affected pricing-wise as petrol costs will increase which will have a knock-on effect on other industries. Just not as quickly as has happened in the Philippines.

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/philippines-fuel-emergency-textbook-case-warning-hiding-official-statistics

Fertiliser supply is being badly affected, and this will affect our planting season this Spring. Medicines will be affected as petrochemicals are used in their manufacture.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gjxv5g19no

Place-marking.Am following the situation too and also find a lot of the media coverage not in-depth on the economic side possibly due to the international aspect (admittedly I may just not have found the good stuff).
I find the BBC4's World at One and The Briefing Room have been the best sources so far.

My understanding is that Iran is letting Chinese ships sail through the Strait as they are 'friends' of Iran (and indeed supply them with weaponry). I think China must be well pleased as they are avoiding this crisis whilst other superpowers are in a bit of bother.

Finally, someone who is paying attention! 🇮🇷

I’m only here on holiday so haven’t spoken properly to anyone but there were quite a few stations closed off saying they had no fuel. Difficult to know if it’s overreaction causing the shortage or genuine shortages

Apparently parts of Australis are making public transport free to try and get people not to drive:

Fuel rations and free buses: How countries are responding to rising oil prices - BBC News