Regarding the exodus of expats returning home, I honestly can’t see it happening. Many will say that now, but as time goes on, they’ll convince themselves to stay. The narrative you see everywhere focuses on safety and defence capability, that they’d rather remain there than live in London, where they feel unsafe walking at night.
In my experience, people who move there tend to hold tightly to their justifications for staying, instead of confronting the uncomfortable realities of the high cost of living, debt cycle, oppression, exploitative labour, human trafficking, and the dark, dark side of life there.
I lived there for just over three years, and I completely agree that your experience depends on the circles you move in. The expat communities can be fantastic, and there are some amazing people
there with a positive mindset and people all work hard. But the lifestyle itself, in my experience, is god awful. Within six weeks of arriving, I had burned through my savings (through necessity not luxury) and started the cycle of credit card debt. The minute my visa processed, my bank account was set up, I was pushed into taking out a credit card (as are many, and as is from what I understand part of the expat onboarding strategy).
My job in professional services was stable, and the high, tax-free salary was appealing but it quickly lost meaning once you factored in the extreme cost of living.
Personally, I ended up in debt, depressed, and struggling with an eating disorder, and sadly, that’s not uncommon. I was lucky enough to have an inheritance that paid for my exit once my three-year visa ended, but many (not saying all, as I can’t possibly know that) others aren’t as fortunate. They become trapped in a cycle of debt and despair /hope that extending their stay will turn around their situation, with little
other choice.
You’ll rarely hear about this online, though. Strict content regulations prevent people from sharing such realities, and most are reluctant to admit the truth to family and friends back home.
My sense is that many expats will craft new narratives to explain why they’re staying rather than returning. What I think is, they’ll desperately want reasons to present that enable them to justify staying, because coming home is hard. It’s a sobering reality check, forcing you to accept a lower standard of living especially with the grim situation the UK finds itself in right now.