Ukraine Invasion: Part 59

[MagicFox]

Well, it’s thread 59.

Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

US negotiators are exploring ways to sidestep Ukraine’s constitutional limits (www.kyivpost.com/post/65328) – from NATO membership to territorial clauses – to craft compromises that don’t require Kyiv to abandon its positions.

A Russian-linked tanker was hit again in the Black Sea on Sunday, (www.kyivpost.com/post/65394) marking the fourth such incident in a week as maritime attacks spread from the region all the way to Africa.

European capitals fear the Witkoff-Putin meeting is less about peace (www.kyivpost.com/post/65358) and more about locking the US into a diplomatic holding pattern. Analysts warn the envoy is being played.

“We have almost cleared Kupyansk of Russian forces,” Zelensky said.

Putin has [...] announced that he has ordered the military to establish a “security zone” along the border with Ukraine in the area of responsibility of the “North” military grouping.

President Volodymyr Zelensky and the First Lady have arrived in Ireland for an official visit.

Ukraine pressed for deeper industrial integration, (www.kyivpost.com/post/65351) expanded air-defense support and a funding mechanism based on frozen Russian assets at a high-level EU meeting in Brussels.

🎙️ A new episode of OFF THE RECORD is now live.
🇨🇦 Chrystia Freeland — Canada’s former Deputy Prime Minister and Special Representative on Ukraine’s Reconstruction — joins Ambassador Natalka Cmoc from wartime Kyiv for a conversation about courage, innovation, and rebuilding Ukraine.
Why is Ukraine a “startup nation”? What must the world understand about its resilience and economic future? This is a powerful conversation about rebuilding while fighting.
Watch now:

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

In November, Russian occupation forces seized 505 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, with 40 percent of all advances taking place near Hulyaipole in the Zaporizhzhia region, according to DeepState.
This is almost twice as much as in September.

🇪🇺 The EU is complaining about Belgium’s excessive demands regarding the reparations loan for Ukraine. Politico reports that this could derail the negotiations.
The European Commission is expected to publish the legal framework for the loan this month. But Belgium remains the main obstacle. The country wants financial security guarantees in case Russia files a lawsuit, since frozen Russian assets are held at Euroclear, a Belgian financial institution.
Belgium is asking for guarantees that exceed the planned €140 billion loan and can be paid out within a few days. It also wants these guarantees to last longer than the EU sanctions against Russia.
Not all member states agree. Several diplomats told Politico that such guarantees would make their own countries’ financial stability dependent on a court decision and could expose them to multibillion-euro payouts years after the war in Ukraine ends.
Additionally, the European Central Bank refused to support the reparations loan, the FT writes. The ECB was asked to act as the lender of last resort for Euroclear to prevent a liquidity crisis. The bank declined, saying this would be equivalent to providing direct financing to governments — a practice that is prohibited.

A Russian tanker was attacked nearly 15 km off the coast of Turkey.
The tanker MIDVOLGA-2 informed Turkish authorities that it had come under attack in the Black Sea. The crew did not request assistance and is currently moving toward the port of Sinop.
According to Turkey’s Directorate General of Maritime Affairs, the vessel was traveling from Russia to Georgia and was reportedly carrying sunflower oil. There were 13 crew members on board and none were injured.
Marine Traffic lists MIDVOLGA-2 as an oil tanker sailing under the Russian flag. It is unclear why the ship was so far west of the eastern Black Sea coastline. It may have been headed from Crimea.
Ukrainian naval drones on 20 November attacked two sanctioned oil tankers belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet in the Black Sea. Both vessels were effectively disabled after the strikes. They could have carried nearly $70 million worth of oil.

🇺🇦🇰🇿Ukraine has halted the main export route for Kazakh oil, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.
Ukrainian naval drones over the weekend damaged one of the three mooring points at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, the route through which Kazakhstan ships most of its oil.
After the explosion, that point is no longer operational, another one is under repair, and the terminal is left with only a single functioning berth, creating risks for exports. Kazakhstan is already redirecting shipments through alternative routes.
Overall, in November, Ukrainian drones attacked Russian oil refineries at least fourteen times, a record number since the start of the war. The strikes have already reduced Russia’s oil-processing volume to around five million barrels per day.

💥 During the overnight attack on Russia’s Chechnya, an FSB building in the town of Achkhoy-Martan came under strike.

[yesterday's report]
💥 Explosions occurred on railway lines in Russia’s Novosibirsk and Bryansk regions, according to sources in Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR).
On 20 November, an explosion hit the tracks of the West Siberian Railway near Barysh, Novosibirsk region. The blast damaged the railway and disrupted shipments destined for the Russian army.

On 28 November, another explosion occurred in the town of Unecha on a railway line used by Russia to transfer fuel and military equipment to Belarus. Tank cars carrying fuel were hit, with the explosion destroying two tankers and damaging the tracks.

I hate Putin. I've got nothing adult or intelligent to say about it. I just hate him and wish he'd drop dead. He a loathesome oppressive dictator of the worst kind who holds up human progress for everyone with his delusional greed and aggression and power-craving.
How Zelenskyy keeps his patience and dignity is beyond me. ❤️

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-1-2025/

Key Takeaways

1. US-Ukrainian talks reportedly continued in Florida on December 1 ahead of US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 2 to present the US-Ukrainian peace proposal.
2. The Kremlin is setting conditions to refrain from publicly discussing the outcomes of the December 2 US-Russian meeting, possibly in order to obfuscate Russia’s likely rejection of the US-Ukrainian peace proposal.
3. Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to undermine the Kremlin’s effort to portray a Russian victory in Ukraine as imminent or inevitable.
4. Russian forces are not yet confirmed to have seized all of Pokrovsk despite operating within the town for over 120 days.
5. Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid and support to Ukraine’s growing defense industrial base (DIB).
6. The Russian military continues implementing longstanding plans to form new Russian divisions as part of the Russian military’s transition back towards a force structure based on maneuver divisions, likely in preparation for a possible future war with NATO.
7. Balloon incursions in NATO airspace continue to shut down Lithuanian airports.
8. Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.

I totally agree. I hate seeing Putin’s smug smiling lying face on the television. It’s a visceral reaction. I feel almost as strongly about his stupid lying henchmen like Peskov and Lavrov.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Update: Witkoff, Putin talks (kyivindependent.com/us-envoy-arrives-in-moscow-for-high-stakes-talks-with-putin-on-ending-war/) on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine were 'very useful,' Kremlin says.
After the meeting, senior Russian economic negotiator Kirill Dmitriev tweeted that the talks had been “productive.” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov added that the two sides held a “very useful, constructive, and highly substantive” meeting, though no concrete deal was reached.

⚡️ Ukraine's top negotiators (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-top-negotiator-to-again-meet-trumps-envoys-after-moscow-talks/) to again meet Trump's envoys after Moscow talks, Zelensky says.
Rustem Umerov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, and Andrii Hnatov, the chief of staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, will first meet European national security advisors in Brussels on Dec. 3.

‘Problematic to even discuss it’ — Why Ukraine peace deal can’t include amnesty for Russia’s war crimes (kyivindependent.com/problematic-to-even-discuss-it-why-peace-deal-cant-give-amnesty-for-war-crimes/)
A U.S.-backed 28-point peace plan leaked last month caused uproar in Ukraine and among its allies, among other reasons, because it contained a controversial point implying, in vague terms, a “full amnesty” for acts committed during the war.
As talks aiming to secure a peace deal continued with a high-level Ukraine-U.S. meeting held in Florida on Nov. 30, the final version of the document remains uncertain, fueling concerns that Russian leaders could walk away without being held accountable for their crimes.

⚡️ Putin warns Russia prepared for war (kyivindependent.com/putin-warns-russia-prepared-for-war-with-europe-right-now/) with Europe 'right now' before meeting US envoy.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Europe "has no peaceful agenda" and "is on the side of war."

⚡️ NATO allies pledge over $1 billion (kyivindependent.com/nato-allies-pledge-over-1-billion-for-us-arms-for-ukraine/) for US arms for Ukraine.
NATO allies announced two joint PURL packages, each worth $500 million: one co-financed by Germany, Norway, and Poland, and another by Germany, Norway, and the Netherlands.

Separately, Canada's Foreign Minister Anita Anand said her country would also donate approximately $200 million under the PURL initiative.

⚡️Fire breaks out at Russian oil depot (kyivindependent.com/fire-breaks-out-at-russian-oil-depot-amid-reported-drone-strike/) amid reported drone strike.
A fire broke out overnight Dec. 3 at an oil depot in Russia's Tambov region after an alleged Ukrainian drone strike.

⚡️ Ukraine detains British ex-military trainer suspected of spying for Russia (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-detains-british-ex-military-trainer-suspected-of-spying-for-russia/), source says.
The SBU has detained British citizen Ross David Cutmore, who worked as a military instructor in Ukraine, on suspicion of spying for Russia, an SBU source told the Kyiv Independent.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — DEC 3, 2025
■ Roughly 200 combat engagements recorded; highest casualties since October 12
■ Notable armored vehicle losses; drone losses remain below the 7-day average
■ Triple-digit overnight attacks, all drones; improved interception rate, but 14 locations hit (including by debris)
■ Unusually few Russian MLRS strikes; three Ukrainian strikes reported

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️Ukrainian representatives, led by Umerov, will brief the national security advisers of European leaders in Brussels on Wednesday about the results of recent US-Russia contacts, after which they will prepare a new meeting with the Trump team, Zelenskyy said.

Putin threatened strikes on Ukrainian ports after attacks on Russian tankers.
“If attacks on tankers continue, we will consider retaliatory measures against ships of countries that help Ukraine. I hope that Kyiv and those who stand behind it will think about whether to continue attacks on ships in the Black Sea,” he said.

The EU has reached an agreement to completely phase out Russian natural gas by 2027, the EU Council announced. The preliminary deal must still be formally approved by the EU Council and the European Parliament.
The regulation introduces a legally binding, phased ban on Russian LNG and pipeline gas: a full ban on LNG at the end of 2026 and on pipeline gas in autumn 2027. The goal is to build a sustainable and energy-independent EU market while preserving supply security.
Lawmakers confirmed that imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG will be banned six weeks after the regulation enters into force, with a transitional period for existing contracts.
[...]
The regulation includes the possibility of temporary suspension in exceptional cases that threaten the energy security of one or more member states. The conditions are narrow: “exceptional necessity,” a declared state of emergency, and a short period of validity.
After two years, the European Commission will conduct an impact assessment, including a review of the permit procedures.

NATO countries plan to spend about €1 billion per month next year on buying US weapons for Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Rutte said.

Trade between Russia and the European Union has dropped to a historic low. From January to June, it fell from €33.7 billion to €30.9 billion, an 8.3% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, Eurostat reported.
The decline is linked to EU sanctions imposed over Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the rejection of Russian energy resources, and the introduction of new tariffs.
Eurostat’s latest data show that the negative trend persisted in the first half of 2025:
▫️Imports of Russian goods to the EU reached €16.1 billion, down 10.5% year-on-year.
▫️European exports to Russia fell by 5.7% to €14.8 billion.
Overall, trade between Russia and the EU dropped by 74% from 2022 to 2024, falling from €257.5 billion to €67.7 billion.

Ukraine denies involvement in the attack on the Russian tanker Midvolga 2 off the Turkish coast.
“Ukraine has nothing to do with this incident, and we officially refute any such accusations made by Russian propaganda. In addition, the route from Russia to Georgia through the Turkish EEZ makes no sense and suggests that Russia may have staged all this,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi.

Ukraine and Ireland have approved a Partnership Roadmap for at least the next five years, President Zelenskyy announced.

Ireland will provide €125 million in military and energy support to Ukraine, Prime Minister Michał Martin announced.
“Today I am pleased to confirm that we will provide a further €100 million in non-lethal military assistance and an additional €25 million to support Ukraine’s energy system.”

Europe’s defense industry grew by nearly 14% in 2024, reaching €183.4 billion in revenue, Bloomberg reports.
This is the fourth consecutive year of growth — a result of years of underinvestment and subsequent increases in defense budgets after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Employment in the sector rose by 8.6%, reaching 633,000 jobs.
The Aerospace, Security, and Defense Industries of Europe (ASD) pointed to ongoing challenges: supply chain bottlenecks, shortages of critical raw materials and electronic components, and high energy costs.
ASD also noted that a significant share of European defense procurement still goes to foreign suppliers, mainly the United States, creating potential supply chain vulnerabilities.
ASD President Mikael Johansson emphasized that strengthening Europe’s sovereign defense capacity “cannot be stopped just because we have some kind of ceasefire or negotiations.”

Ukraine carried out a record number of strikes on Russian oil refineries in November, Bloomberg reports.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces hit Russian refineries at least 14 times — the highest monthly number to date. There were also four attacks on oil loading infrastructure at Black Sea ports, causing loading delays in Novorossiysk.
According to Kpler analysts, the damage has reduced Russia’s average daily oil refining to about 5 million barrels, with the possibility of further declines.

Uzbek chemical plant Farg’onaazot is supplying Russia with fuel components used in Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Forbes reports, citing research by the Economic Security Council of Ukraine (ESCU).
The main component of the Iskander’s solid fuel is ammonium perchlorate, which Russia cannot produce on an industrial scale without imported sodium chlorate. According to ESCU, the largest suppliers of this chemical are China and Uzbekistan, which delivered more than $36.9 million worth of sodium chlorate to Russia in 2024–2025.
Farg’onaazot — purchased last year by Singapore-based Indorama — plays a central role in this supply chain. In 2024, the plant shipped $11.4 million worth of sodium chlorate to Russia, and another $6.9 million in the first half of 2025.
Sodium chlorate is already on the EU sanctions list as a substance supporting Russia’s industrial capabilities. However, major Uzbek and Chinese suppliers, including Farg’onaazot, remain unsanctioned.

The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) in Lausanne has allowed Russian skiers and snowboarders to qualify for the 2026 Winter Olympics under neutral status.

A film about so-called “independent journalism” in Russia has won the 2025 Gotham Film Award, surpassing Chernov’s documentary.
In the Best Documentary category, the winner was My Unwanted Friends: Part I — The Last Broadcasts in Moscow by Russian director Yulia Loktyeva.
The film is presented as a story about “preserving independent journalism” in Russia on the eve of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Competing in the same category was the Ukrainian documentary 2000 Meters to Andriivka by Mstislav Chernov, which follows the counteroffensive in the Bakhmut area in September 2023.

The death toll from the Russian strike in Ternopil has risen to 36, the National Police reported.
An 81-year-old woman died in the hospital.
Five people remain missing.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

The United States has HALTED deliveries of certain types of weapons to Ukraine, The Atlantic reports.
The reasons and the timeline for resuming the shipments have not been disclosed.

A planned meeting in Brussels between President Zelensky and a visiting US delegation that included US President’s special envoy Witkoff and Kushner has been canceled. (www.kyivpost.com/post/65472)

Russia will not make concessions on three key points of “Trump’s peace plan,” NBC News reports.
The three issues Moscow refuses to compromise on are:
• The territory of Donbas
• Limits on the size of Ukraine’s Armed Forces
• U.S. and European recognition of Russia’s newly claimed regions as Russian territory

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is in Moscow as preparations continue for parallel US-Russia talks.
Wang Yi is currently holding a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.
Meanwhile, Trump’s special envoy Witkoff and Kushner have already met with Putin’s special representative, Dmitriev, as part of the ongoing negotiations framework. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65446

The European Commission is set to unveil a major legal proposal this week that would unlock frozen Russian assets for Ukraine (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65492) — while still leaving the door open for fresh EU borrowing or a hybrid funding model.

The Netherlands has deployed Patriot and NASAMS air-defense systems to Poland to protect a key logistics hub used to channel military aid to Ukraine.
“This is one of the first times we are deploying such a combination of systems simultaneously. This strengthens the security of Poland, Ukraine, NATO, and the Netherlands,” Dutch Defense Minister Brekelmans said.

Broken Promises: (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65414) Russia’s long record of violating international agreements and commitments.

Russia’s “Druzhba” oil pipeline has been blown up again, Kyiv Post sources say.
On the first night of winter, an explosion occurred on a section of the Druzhba pipeline — a route through which Russian oil continues to flow to several European countries, fueling the aggressor’s financial and military capabilities.
According to the source, explosives with a remote detonation mechanism and additional incendiary mixtures were used to destroy the section of the pipeline and ensure a more intense fire.

Russian overnight strikes killed two, injured several, (www.kyivpost.com/post/65486) and cut power to tens of thousands as drones hit energy facilities in four Ukrainian regions, officials said.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Donald Trump said that the United States is no longer involved in Ukraine financially.
“We are no longer taking part in this war financially. Biden handed out 350 billion dollars like candy. It’s a colossal amount of money, and most of it was in cash, with a lot in equipment,” he said.

🇺🇸NATO intelligence does not indicate that Putin is ready for a peace deal, a senior Alliance official told reporters on condition of anonymity.
According to the official, NATO’s assessment is that Ukrainian defenders in Myrnohrad are “virtually encircled” and dependent on drone resupply, while Ukrainian control in Pokrovsk is almost entirely lost.
“Russian forces control more than 95 percent of the city. Only isolated pockets remain where Ukrainian troops continue to resist,” he said.

Russia attacked Ukraine with 111 drones, and air defenses shot down 83 of them. Here is what is known so far.
🔴Kherson region. One person was killed and three were wounded over the past day due to Russian strikes. An apartment building and 12 private homes were damaged.
🔴Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian forces attacked three districts overnight. Two people were killed and three others were injured.
🔴Zaporizhzhia. The occupiers carried out 907 strikes on 25 settlements across the region. One person was wounded.
🔴Donetsk region. Over the past day, Russian troops killed two civilians in Sloviansk and Kostiantynivka. Five more people were injured.

A Russian cosmonaut has been removed from the ISS crew for attempting to steal engineering documentation.
Russian cosmonaut Oleg Artemyev was excluded from the Crew-12 team of an upcoming ISS mission after being accused of attempting to illegally copy classified SpaceX engineering documents, according to rocket-launch analyst Heorhiy Tryshkin, who cited his own sources.
According to Tryshkin, Artemyev was removed for violating U.S. ITAR export-control regulations (International Traffic in Arms Regulations). While training at SpaceX’s Hawthorne facility in California, the cosmonaut allegedly photographed engines and internal company documentation on his phone and then attempted to take these materials off the premises, sources said.
Speaking to The Insider, Tryshkin confirmed that the violation is under investigation, and noted that removing a crew member just months before launch indicates the seriousness of the incident.

🇮🇪🇸🇪🇯🇵Ireland, Sweden, and Japan have allocated new funds to support Ukraine.
🔴Ireland will provide €100 million in non-lethal military assistance and €25 million to support Ukraine’s energy system.
🔴Sweden will deliver a winter assistance package worth more than €100 million. The funding will go toward energy supplies, infrastructure repair and recovery, reforms, healthcare, and medical services.
🔴Japan will contribute $27 million for humanitarian demining, equipment, and medical supplies.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-2-2025/

Key Takeaways

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the US-Ukrainian peace proposal during his meeting with a US delegation in Moscow on December 2 and remains highly unlikely to accept any compromises short of his original war goals.
2. The Kremlin intensified its cognitive warfare effort that aims to portray a Russian victory in Ukraine as imminent in the lead up to the December 2 US-Russia meeting, likely to coerce the West into accepting Russia’s absolutist demands.
3. Putin exaggerated Russia’s claimed seizure of Pokrovsk as strategically important for large scale breakthroughs. ISW has not observed evidence to confirm the complete Russian seizure of Pokrovsk, but Russia’s seizure of the town in the near future is unlikely to produce rapid Russian advances.
4. Putin also intensified efforts to portray the Russian economy as resilient and able to support protracted hostilities in Ukraine in the lead up to the December 2 meeting.
5. The Kremlin’s recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy is doing markedly worse than Putin’s portrayal, however.
6. Putin attempted to preemptively deflect blame onto Europe for Russia’s rejection of any peace plan iterations ahead of the December 2 US-Russian meeting.
7. Putin threatened Europe to prevent Europe from engaging in the peace process.
8. Russia may be trying to set information conditions to justify Russian strikes against Ukrainian ports to impose a de facto blockade of Ukraine.
9. Putin may also be setting information conditions to justify Russian attempts to seize Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts, although Russia’s seizure of these regions remains unlikely at this time.
10. Russian forces are modifying their Shahed-type drones to target Ukrainian air defenders.
11. Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.

Its not Putin, who i do hate, its the USA, all of them, sucking up to Putin.

As it is, given Putin, only the Americans can end this war and they choose not too.

Trump etc, in 1962, would have let Russia put missiles in Cuba in return for a trade deal.

My opinion of the Americans has plummeted, they voted in this man and are responsible for all that he has done.

TBF not all Americans voted for Trump.

That said if you look at the individuals who POTUS sent to Russia to lead the recent round of negotiations it's clear POTUS seems to very much see this as a business deal, not a diplomatic effort...

Whatever, Europe/UK really needs to get it's collective finger out of it's backside, and stop worrying and worse still endlessly debating about whether for example some financial sanctions might be a breach of some obscure international rule.

Rules are all well and good until someone decides not to play by them anymore.

But enough did.

If the rational was a business deal, i could understand that but is the US team so stupid that they think Putin would honour such deals?

Of course not.

Europe hasn't the industrial capacity to arm Ukraine, and 90billion, of frozen Russian assets, over just 2 years is not enough, Putin can just keep going, loss of life and economic damage doesn't matter to him.... he has the means to keep up this war until he eventually wears down the Ukrainians.

Putin is the one who started this conflict. Putin's arm has grown long and he has certainly interfered in elections in the UK, Brexit, other countries and very likely in the US too.

Hating Trump, easy as it is to do, is like hating the saliva from the rabid dog. It's a dangerous problem, but the bigger problem is the disease on the dog.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇦🇺🇳🇿Australia and New Zealand are providing military aid to Ukraine totaling $63 million and $8.7 million, respectively, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
New Zealand's funds will be channeled through PURL—a mechanism created by the US and NATO. It allows allies to finance the purchase of American weapons for Ukraine through joint contributions.
Australia will allocate approximately $33 million to PURL, $1.3 million to the "Drone Coalition." Another $28 million will go toward military equipment, including air defense radar stations, ammunition, and combat engineering support resources.

Russian forces again attacked Ukraine with missiles and drones. Here is what is known so far.
Dnipropetrovsk region. Seven people were injured in Russian attacks. A 53-year-old woman sustained shrapnel wounds.
Odesa region. Seven people were injured by falling debris. Two of them were rescued from blocked apartments. Residential buildings were damaged.
Zaporizhzhia. The occupiers carried out 922 strikes on 23 settlements in the region. Authorities received 30 reports of damage to homes, cars, and infrastructure.
Kherson region. Three people were killed, including one child. Seven more were injured as a result of Russian attacks.
Donetsk region. Over the past day, Russian forces killed two residents of Kostyantynivka. Thirteen more people across the region were injured.
Kharkiv region. A 62-year-old woman in the village of Siryi Yar was injured and hospitalized with head and body trauma.

Germany deployed the Arrow 3 anti-missile system due to the threat posed by Russia.
The system is already operational at a base in Brandenburg and can shoot down ballistic missiles at an altitude of up to 100 km. This is Berlin's response to the growing missile threat from Russia.
Arrow 3 complements the Patriot and Iris-T systems and closes a significant gap in Europe's air defense. It intercepts missiles with a direct hit, allowing even dangerous warheads to be destroyed in the upper layers of the atmosphere.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine's Umerov to meet (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-top-negotiator-to-again-meet-trumps-envoys-after-moscow-talks/) Witkoff, Kushner in US on Dec 4 following Moscow talks.

Pokrovsk in Russia's grip as sister city stares down encirclement (kyivindependent.com/pokrovsk-in-russias-grip-as-sister-city-stares-down-encirclement/)
More than five weeks after Russian troops first started to swarm into the southern outskirts of the Donetsk Oblast city, Pokrovsk has been decisively overrun, although Kyiv still claims a presence inside the urban area.
Strikes on both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been recorded in the northern low-density residential neighborhoods of Pokrovsk, but in the dynamic and hazy environment of the front-line contact zone, proper territorial control is difficult to establish.

Investigation: Chinese military officials’ quiet visits to Moscow, exposed (kyivindependent.com/investigation-chinese-military-officials-quiet-visits-to-moscow-exposed/)
A little over a month after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russian government received a request from China, according to leaked correspondence reviewed by the Kyiv Independent.
In it, Beijing asked to buy a set of weapons and armored vehicles for airborne troops. The request, numbered ZH2022-Y53, was received on April 7, 2022, the documents show.

⚡️ Ukraine war latest (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-12-3/): Romania reports taking out Ukrainian Sea Baby drone, Ukraine denies.

⚡️ Ukraine war latest live (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-12-3/): Ukraine pushes Russian troops back near Kupiansk as Vovchansk lies in ruins in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine's military says.

⚡️ Ukrainians' trust in NATO membership as security guarantee drops (kyivindependent.com/in-ukraine-trust-in-nato-as-security-guarantee-drops-poll-shows/), poll shows.
Only about 19.4% of Ukrainians consider a potential entry into NATO as the best possible security guarantee, a 10% drop from last year, according to a survey.

⚡️Ukraine's parliament strips Russian (kyivindependent.com/russia-no-longer-protected-minority-language-in-ukraine/) from 'protected minority language' list.
"Today we have finally restored historical justice and turned the page on years of distortions that were used for political pressure and to legitimize Russification. We have demonstrated our maturity as a European state," Language Ombudsman Olena Ivanovska said on Dec. 3.

Chart of the week: Ukraine’s shadow war behind enemy lines is picking up (kyivindependent.com/chart-of-the-week-ukraines-shadow-war-behind-enemy-lines-is-picking-up/)
Sabotage activity in Russian-occupied territories is picking up after a two-year lull, according to a new report by ACLED, an organization that tracks conflicts around the world.

⚡️Several Ukrainian children abducted by Russia forcibly sent (kyivindependent.com/several-russia-abducted-ukrainian-children-forcibly-transferred-to-north-korea-expert-tells-us-senate-committee/) to North Korea, expert tells US Senate.
There have been at least two instances of Ukrainian children abducted by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine having been forcibly transferred to a camp in North Korea, Kateryna Rashevska, a legal expert at Ukraine's Regional Center for Human Rights told a U.S. Congressional Subcommittee on Dec. 3.

"12-year-old Misha from the occupied Donetsk region and 16-year-old Liza from occupied Simferopol were sent to Songdowon camp in North Korea, 9,000 km from home," Rashevska testified. "Children there were taught to ‘destroy Japanese militarists’ and met Korean veterans who, in 1968, attacked the U.S. Navy ship Pueblo, killing and wounding nine American soldiers."

⚡️Anti-graft agency detective, investigating Ukraine's largest corruption scandal, released (kyivindependent.com/anti-graft-agency-detective-investigating-ukraines-largest-corruption-scandal-released-from-custody/) from custody.
The Kyiv Appeals Court ordered on Dec. 3 the release of Ruslan Mahamedrasulov, a detective with Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), who had been investigating the country's largest corruption case involving the state-run nuclear power monopoly Energoatom.

⚡️Ukraine war latest live (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-12-3/): Ukrainian intelligence identifies over 10 companies involved in Russian Iskander M missile production that remain unsanctioned.

⚡️Pope Francis left funds in his will (kyivindependent.com/pope-francis-left-funds-in-his-will-to-buy-ambulances-for-ukraine-nun-says/) to buy ambulances for Ukraine, nun says.
"He did tell me, in our meetings, that he would help me in some way, but I didn't imagine he would do it like this," Dominican nun Lucia Caram said.

⚡️Ukraine war latest live (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-12-3/): Russia attacks Kryvyi Rih, injuring at least 4 people, including 3-year-old girl.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 2h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — DEC 4, 2025
■ Casualties remain above the 7-day average despite a drop in engagements
■ Notable equipment losses — mostly drones, unarmored vehicles, and artillery
■ 140 overnight attacks, including two Iskander-M; decent interception rate, 14 locations hit
■ Increased Russian MLRS strikes; the 30-day 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 strike ratio is at its highest level to date

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ushakov says the U.S. delegation agreed to consider Russia’s proposals for a peace plan.
According to Putin’s aide, the issue of Ukraine’s NATO accession was raised during the December 2 talks in the Kremlin. He called it one of the “key questions,” but declined to give details due to the confidential nature of the meeting.
Ushakov also claimed that alleged Russian battlefield gains influenced the talks, making them “positive” from Moscow’s perspective.
He added that the United States “confirmed its readiness to take into account Russian considerations” in the peace process and described the discussion as “very useful.”

Umerov briefed European national security advisers on his talks with the US.
According to the NSDC secretary, he met with national security advisers from the UK, Italy, Germany, Poland, Finland and France, as well as representatives of the EU and NATO.

The EU has added Russia to its blacklist of countries with a high risk of money laundering and terrorist financing, Politico reports.
This designation triggers much stricter oversight of any financial transactions involving Russian individuals or entities. Banks and other institutions must now apply enhanced due diligence to all such operations, including deeper checks on sources of funds and the purpose of each transaction. [you can't rush these things, can you]

The European Commission has proposed increasing the size of the “reparations loan” for Ukraine to €165 billion instead of €140 billion, Politico reports.
According to documents reviewed by journalists, €25 billion of frozen Russian assets would be taken from private bank accounts, and €140 billion from the Belgian depository Euroclear.
Within this “reparations loan,” €115 billion should go to Ukraine’s defense industry, and €50 billion to cover Kyiv’s budget needs.
The remaining €45 billion would be used to repay the G7 loan to Ukraine.
Belgium opposes this approach, fearing that if sanctions are lifted and Russia goes to court to reclaim the assets, the country would have to compensate Moscow from its own funds.
“This project does not take our concerns into account. We have the unpleasant feeling that we have not been heard. We continue to insist on an alternative solution, namely for the EU to borrow the necessary funds on international markets,” Belgian Foreign Minister Maxim Prevost said at a briefing in Brussels.
Today, the European Commission presented two solutions to cover Ukraine’s financial needs in 2026–2027.
According to EC President Ursula von der Leyen, the first mechanism provides for the EU to raise funds on external markets under EU budget guarantees and transfer them to Ukraine as a loan. This option requires unanimous support from member states.
The second mechanism is the “reparations loan,” which uses profits from frozen Russian assets. Ukraine will only have to return the funds after the war ends and Russia pays reparations.
The package consists of five legal proposals and includes a ban on returning the assets to Russia, as well as mechanisms to protect EU countries and financial institutions from potential pressure from Moscow.
The EU plans to reach a political decision at the summit on December 18–19.

Five countries have confirmed the allocation of $1 billion in additional support for the Ukrainian Defense Forces through the PURL program, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said. [Norway, Canada, Germany, Poland and one other]

❗️The head of the Polish Foreign Ministry said that the NATO–Russia Council “no longer exists.”
Radosław Sikorski noted that the Council was created when it still seemed possible to build European security together with the Russian Federation, but Russia’s invasion changed the situation dramatically.
He stressed that European security is now being shaped against Russia, and this has already taken institutional form.

Ukraine will not receive Czech T-72M4CZ tanks due to “insurmountable technical problems,” Novinky reports.
According to the publication, key components of the fire control system cannot be repaired or replaced, rendering the tanks practically unusable.
These are modernized vehicles. The decision to upgrade them was made before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, at a time when the Czech army did not have the funds to purchase new equipment. [@notimagain]

Finland is not ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine but is preparing to take part in organizing security measures, Yle reported, citing Prime Minister Petteri Orpo.

More than 3 million people in Ukraine live with disabilities; hundreds of thousands acquired their disabilities as a direct result of Russian aggression. Both civilians and service members have been injured in callous, relentless attacks since 2014.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine will return to the United States to continue peace talks (www.kyivpost.com/post/65535) following negotiations between a delegation from Washington and Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Andriy Sybiha, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, said.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte insisted that the alliance has no reason to contemplate a “Plan B” in the event that talks collapse (www.kyivpost.com/post/65536) and Washington halts weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
“I don’t think we have to think about that,” he replied when pressed by a reporter during a Brussels news conference following a gathering of NATO foreign ministers convened after pivotal US-Russia discussions.

Trump admitted the US still has no clear path to brokering peace in Ukraine, (www.kyivpost.com/post/65544) even after what he called “reasonably good” talks between Putin and his two envoys in Moscow.
The pivot back to Florida has stirred anxiety among NATO allies, who warn Washington is “drifting toward Russia’s framing” of the war and sidelining European unity.

Italy has warned that joining a NATO program to purchase US weapons for Ukraine would be “premature” (www.kyivpost.com/post/65539) while diplomacy is still in motion — making it the first European nation to openly argue that arms deliveries should pause as ceasefire talks unfold.

Hungary said it plans to launch an immediate legal challenge (www.kyivpost.com/post/65531) against the EU’s decision to phase out Russian natural gas imports by 2027.

Russian drones struck facilities belonging to gas conglomerate Naftogaz in Ukraine overnight Tuesday, causing damage but no injuries, with repairs (www.kyivpost.com/post/65522) scheduled to begin.

A court in Odesa on Wednesday ordered a 40-day detention (www.kyivpost.com/post/65499) for two men suspected of murdering another Ukrainian, a 21-year-old man, in Vienna on Nov. 26, where the victim was found in a burning car.

An investigation by Systema (RFE/RL) shows that Vladimir Putin uses three almost identical offices in different Russian residences to conceal where he actually is.
Systema analyzed 700+ official videos and photos, comparing tiny visual details — door handles, wall seams, thermostats, panel height, furniture elements — and found that the Kremlin has built replica rooms in:
▪️Novo-Ogaryovo
▪️Sochi (Bocharov Ruchey)
▪️Valdai
These subtle inconsistencies helped investigators establish where each meeting truly took place.
Findings suggest that many events presented as occurring in Novo-Ogaryovo were actually filmed in Sochi or Valdai — pointing to a long-standing Kremlin practice of disguising Putin’s physical location.

Drawing red line: bipartisan fury boils over as US senate confronts Russian abduction of Ukrainian children.
(www.kyivpost.com/post/65543)
A rare moment of moral unity in Congress recasts Russia’s mass transfer of Ukrainian children as an identity-erasure campaign – and signals growing pressure on the White House to harden US policy.

This was in the Guardian a few days back, maybe of interest..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/29/the-week-europe-realised-it-stands-alone-against-russian-expansionism

And of course it was good to see penny had dropped in places like the UK with the announcement of a major increase in defence spending in the UK budget....oh, hang on....

And the widespread acceptance on place like MN that there might be need and good reason for some form of national service in countries in or near western europe.....oh, hang on again...

I'll stop now...

..and...

Demonstrate you are an unreliable supplier, place constraints on end use and disposal via ITAR..don't allow partners full access to coding and perhaps mission critical data for equipment they have bought off you......(F-35).

And then have the cheek to bellyache when those nations say "no thanks, we will buy elsewhere"

https://www.politico.eu/article/christopher-landau-top-us-official-berates-europe-nato-cut-industry-defense-buildup/

Trump doesn't want America involved in Ukraines defence.

He can't have it both ways. Either they are supplying weapons knowing they are going to be used by Ukraine, or they are not.

Other countries would rather buy weapons from their own manufacturers, or those of trusted partners and Trump has made it clear that America is neither.

I've mildly been thinking on and off what to say to that ever since I saw it. But I can't think of anything other than laughter.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-3-2025/

Key Takeaways

1. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory and negotiating tactics assume that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition.
2. Kremlin officials continued to refuse to publicly discuss the outcomes of the December 2 US-Russia meeting, as ISW previously forecasted.
3. The Kremlin is reigniting narratives that Odesa City is a Russian city.
4. Russian forces achieved the tactical breakthrough northeast and east of Hulyaipole in mid-November 2025, likely in part by concentrating and committing a force grouping comparable in size to the one operating in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction.
5. The 5th CAA’s tactical breakthrough north and northeast of Hulyaipole could enable Russian forces to achieve operational successes in both the Hulyaipole and Orikhiv directions. Russia’s ability to exploit such a breakthrough, however, largely depends on Ukrainian resistance and denial of Russian river crossings.
6. High ranking Kremlin officials continue to set conditions to justify potential future Russian aggression against Moldova and the Baltics.
7. The Kremlin is attempting to mobilize Russian and Belarusian civil societies, including Belarusian organizations and the Russian Orthodox Church, to garner support for the war in Ukraine and influence campaigns globally.
8. Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid and support to Ukraine.
9. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-4-2025/

Key Takeaways

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his commitment to his original war aims from 2021 and 2022 and unwillingness to compromise during an interview with Indian media – likely as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to shape the international information space during the ongoing negotiations process.
2. Other Kremlin officials continued to publicly display their commitment to Putin’s original war aims.
3. The Kremlin is setting conditions to frame any future agreement to not attack and seize Odesa and Mykolaiv cities as an alleged Russian “concession” in peace negotiations, even though Russia is currently incapable of seizing these cities.
4. ISW has not observed evidence to suggest that Russian forces have encircled Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) as some Ukrainian sources continue to indicate that Ukrainian forces maintain limited ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
5. Russia appears to have launched a new cognitive warfare campaign aimed at spreading narratives about Russian preparations for an offensive on Chernihiv City against the backdrop of the ongoing peace negotiations.
6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Seemingly hostile drones only missed Zelensky’s plane because he was unexpectedly early

https://www.thejournal.ie/drones-dublin-ireland-hybrid-warfare-russia-6893104-Dec2025/