Is anybody here good with population stats?

[CanadianJohn]

I'm reading a book by Bill Bryson, in which he quotes someone "a village of 250 people would average 1000 deaths in 100 years". i.e., about 10 deaths a year (and assuming the population is stable, about 10 births also).

He is talking about pre-modern times, so perhaps up to the 19th century.

Does these numbers sound reasonable?

This would make the average age at death 25yrs. Of course to us that now sounds very young but mortality rates were historically much higher - especially for infants and women giving birth so this is feasible. Remember no penicillin or antibiotics so a simple infection could lead to death.

Thanks for your reply... the writer points out that in a 1000 year old parish.. and there are lots of those, though the church building might have changed... the churchyard might have seen as many as 10,000 burials.

Astonishing to consider.

Average age of deaths in historical times can also potentially be quite a misleading statistic as there were huge numbers of infant deaths.

While the average may indeed be 25 you will find there are a large number who don’t even survive their first year along with many adults who die at around 40. Few die anywhere near the average age.