Russia has sent drones into Poland

[Whu]

Overnight, Russia has send drones into Polish airspace causing NATO to scramble defence forces.
Is this an escalation, show of strength, or just a testing of the waters?
Either way, I think it shows we cannot be complacent that Putin will not escalate in to NATO territory.

This is really bad news isn't it?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2enwk1l9e1t

I'm hoping it was just a Russian fuck up rather than a Russian let's see how far we can go re: the drones.

I want to believe it’s just a fuck up but in reality it’s more likely to be testing the waters. It’s really bad news imho.

And they counted at least eight of them. So not a mistake.

Not good.

I don’t know. I mean of course it’s not good but the media is hardly mentioning it so maybe it isn’t as bad as it sounds? Hopefully.
But definately a stark reminder we cannot be complacent regarding the threat of further escalation.

Awful news

Testing Trump's waters I'd say.

Haven't yet seen any comments from him yet.

Russia is always invading other countries’ air space. They do it for a reaction.

Hmm seems like a lot of money to spend and resources used to just ‘get a reaction’.

You missed the part where they are sending their warships close to other countries and having to be escorted then. Or when the RAF escorted their planes away from our airspace pre Ukraine war? Bastards have been pushing their luck for years.

IMO Putin is pushing boundaries much like Hitler did pre 1939.

We allowed it then under appeasement and we are allowing it now.

At some point it will come to a head.

Poland was always going to be next after Ukraine.

Poland have the largest military in Europe and are understandably twitchy. Why would Putin want to fight them? He hasn't even beaten Ukraine!

I'm clearly missing something about his mindset. I know he's an expansionist who wants a return of the Russian Empire, but surely he recognises reality?

Russia can't even manage to take Ukraine, so I highly doubt they'll be invading Poland anytime soon. It's just putin taking the piss. Probably trolling trump, as well as showing off to his dictator mates. The man's full of hot air 🙄

I think it's maybe important to differentiate between what has been going on around the UK and other countries (air and sea) for years and what happened last night over Poland.

Anyone is entitled to fly/float right up to the (general) 12 mile limit or wherever the international boundary is defined, some times it's less than 12 or subject to special rules that allow transit through confined waters (? The Channel)

When you see coverage in the media of the RN or RAF "escorting" Russian vessels or aircraft the Russians near the UK, and yes, they've been doing this for decades, on and off, they're exercising their legit rights under international law. They can be shadowed the RAF or RN but they can't be forced or escorted away (in peacetime)

Actually penetrating sovereign airspace / UK territorial waters is whole different matter...the parallel to that is what happened last night over Poland and it changes all sorts of rules.

From the photos of the wreckage they are Gerbera recon drones not Geran-2 (Shahed) attack drones. There seem to have been 8 or so over flying.

Lots of mis/dis-information getting spread at the moment.

I dont think so. Much more likely to go for Moldova. He won't trigger NATO then.

That may be true but that doesn't reduce the scale of the offence.

From a legality and almost certainly from a Rules of Engagement POV it doesn't matter whether the military aircraft has illegally penetrated your airspace is an intelligence gathering asset or something bombed up...

Putin, like Hitler, is clearly wrong in the head, so he probably won't be thinking logically about what he's doing.

Putin is actually quite risk averse, he’s not a mad man. Comparisons to Hitler are facile

It's calculated risks though, so see what he can get away with and to flood the news with information while he does sneaky shite in the background but in plain sight - the squirrel effect. Much like Trump, coincidentally.

He likes getting a reaction and causing some disruption and anxiety. The he smirks about it. It’s all a huge game to him.

This doesn't make sense he's trying to use threat as a way to get what he wants in Ukraine I think. I don't believe for a minute Putin actually wants to trigger a war with NATO.

He doesn't want a war with NATO but he'd quite happily see NATO divided or even collapse as a credible organisation.

One way of doing that is to nibble at the edges of NATO, then when NATO baulks at a meaningful response Putin will say to voters in the NATO countries: "see, what use is the organisation that your taxes help pay for, your politicians support, and your young people might have to fight for"....

He's playing a long game...