But if you go down the probability route, there are a lot of things, even if circumstantial, which, when put together are quite damning.
The insulin is probably the most powerful, even if, maybe, there is a small probability that, in pre terms, you could get that extraordinary ratio of insulin to c peptide naturally.
Then there is the ‘ventilated shifts’. I tried to find more out about the rebuttal after some suggested the maths was bad. But was it so bad her tube coming out percentage was equal to everyone else’s?
And then there is the original reason she was charged based on correlations. As many statisticians have pointed out, the methodology was flawed, but it still has some weight.
And her own notes ‘I did it’. Of course, again alone, it is insufficient as many innocent people who feel guilty may write that. But most wouldn’t.
If you multiply the above together, there seems a low probability of her being innocent. Is it 0? Absolutely not. Is it beyond reasonable doubt? That is for a jury to decide.
Maybe she does deserve a retrial based on poorly presented evidence and that is what is being looked at now.
But I don’t think we will ever know (unless she confesses) 100% whether she is guilty or innocent.