UK to move “into war-fighting readiness.” Please help me decode.

[NigellaWannabe1]

I’ve been following the development of various conflicts with increasing dread. Now this announcement from Keir Stammer - it sounds so ominous.

What's your take on it? I’d particularly welcome the perspective of those of you working in communications.

I think we're moving beyond war strategy that requires young men and women on the ground as infantry troops. Warfare is so much more technologically advanced that human bodies and their inconvenient fragility are playing a smaller part. Conversely what we are also seeing is that the infrastructure around defense is so huge that it misses the impact that a small, insurgent group can have. Military power lies in the shadows, electronics and AI nowadays

The war in Ukraine also highlighted that the West will always act to appease regardless of the rhetoric opposing same. If Putin hadn't been allowed to annex Crimea, he would likely not have invaded Ukraine. We simply will not risk an escalation of war with a nuclear country which leaves the West always backing down to allow for diplomacy and sanctions. The problem is that sanctions don't work because there is always another country willing to take advantage and step up as supplier/enabler etc.

The biggest initial disruption recently has been the impact on global supply chains from any deviation - covid, war, oil shortages. The next big disruption is the impact that hackers/bots/influencers are having. The first Trump election was a precursor to what was coming and the ability of social media to influence internal affairs of a country. Then we have hacking of infrastructure - ignore M&S but look at the impact a collapse/failure - even very short term - has if banking fails or transport shuts down.

Kerr and his submarines are a sop to Trump and Putin. Their construction will support an increase in defence funding and will keep local economies going but the reality is that it's easy to point to a submarine and claim to be part of the gang and not so easy to point to intelligence, finance and strategic thinking.

It's been a buzzword in defence for a couple of years now. It doesn't mean much more than that. I can promise you if Russia invaded us in 2022 and not Ukraine we'd have fared less well than they have because we didn't believe it would happen. We have the expensive infrastructure but a lot of cuts have been made to maintenance etc. We need to crack on with that and invest in proper supply chains etc.

I think it's 'tough talking' flim-flam to appease the Daily Mail and try to win over Reform types (which it won't)

Force levels need to be addressed, as well. Lots of new kit won't do much good without trained soldiers, sailors and air force personnel to operate it.

With an active duty force of 73,000, the BA is the smallest it's been for over a century. Of that number, only about 30% are front-line warfighters. That's a very small force for a nation the size of the UK.

War is coming…

It’s either racist, gullible or both. You decide.

If what you propose is true, the sheer scale of an attempt to start a civil war is massive.

if you mission plan an attempted takeover of a country of 70 million then you’re going to need at least 50,000 reasonably well trained and motivated individuals Hamas and Al Qaeda are motivated but not well trained.

That’s 50,000 people across the channel, 50,000 weapons, to give them 200 rounds of ammunition each that’s 10 million rounds of ammunition. Weapons will weigh about 250 tonnes and ammo will weigh 790 tonnes. That’s 26 articulated articulated lorry loads.

Once they get here, they have to hide in the local population, fed , housed and clothed for the duration until everyone is ready.

While this is going on, they have to not get caught crossing the channel, not get caught carrying their weapons.

Has the sheer scale not helped you realise that it’s a far right ding dongs wet dream whereby the nasty jihadis cause terror in the street and the plucky patriotic football hooligan fuelled only by lager and a copy of reforms manifesto save the day and gets the girl!. You’ve seen them on tv, the fat barely literate skinhead who’s had five too many beers and is banging on about muslamic ray guns?

Professor Betz, who is Professor of War in the Modern World at King’s College London, believes that a British civil war within the next five years is increasingly likely. I’ve listened to his 90-minute lecture, and his arguments certainly carry weight.

The core problem facing indebted Western democracies with massive welfare entitlements, declining economies, and shrinking manufacturing bases is this: how do you pay the bills and keep everyone happy?

The answer is, you can’t and foreign wars merely exacerbate that conundrum.When pressed John Healey said 3% of gdp for defence was an "ambition". Quite. Seems like a case of talk loudly but carry no stick.

https://unherd.com/2025/04/is-civil-war-coming-for-britain/

There are so many variables that it’s a future almost impossible to plan for. Even so, Betz does have one piece of advice. “I’m a late middle-aged university professor, not a prepper,” he concedes. “I’m not sitting around planning my apocalyptic endgames… but for what it’s worth, I think anybody living in big cities — anybody in, say, London or Birmingham — should leave.”

It's not just the UK thinking more about defence, Germany is too (and maybe other European allies).

Why is the language in the reader comments under this article more sophisticated than what you typically find on Mumsnet?
https://unherd.com/2025/04/is-civil-war-coming-for-britain/

I would take anything published in a 'libertarian' site like Unherd with a big pinch of salt! It just exists to be all 'ooh, that awful progressive urban elite' so of course it's going to say we're heading for civil war because we've been too nice to immigrants or something

Well, regardless of the publication, Professor Betz is a credible academic at a Russell Group university not some conspiracy theorist on the wild fringes of the internet. The thrust of his thesis is that a combination of long-term economic decline, the collapse of a dominant governmental narrative, and the disruptive influence of social media has led to increasing polarization in public discourse. Large segments of the populatiob who feel disenfranchised and lack trust in institutions are increasingly vulnerable to narratives that stoke grievance, both from domestic and foreign sources. Combined with the state’s growing inability to effectively police, govern, or enforce the rule of law, this creates a looming perfect storm. What we face may not be a civil war in the traditional sense, with clearly defined sides, but rather a slow, chaotic unraveling of societal cohesion.

www.kcl.ac.uk/people/professor-david-j-betz

Ah yes, quoting a conspiracy theory site owned by that well known balanced source of news GB News. I definitely believe you know.

Have you got a tinfoil hat and a proud boys banner I can use?

You are overegging your pudding somewhat - Unherd may be many things but it's not in the far right loon sphere nor is Professor Betz a nutter. It's the equivalent of Times Radio vs The Sun - The Sun being GB News whose trash reputation like the Sun we would no doubt agree on.

It’s owned by the owner of GBNews. Whilst not a full on goose stepping nazi, he’s a gnats whisker away from donning the field grey and singing Horst Wessel.

Paul Marshall who made his money in Marshall Wace the hedge fund who made a fortune betting the right way on Brexit - a loathsome creature for sure and I get the direction of travel he wants for Unherd. That said he has a lot of good writers and articles amongst things I would run a mile from. I read that along with dozens of other publications and all the broadsheets. You are focusing on the publication not the substance of the articel which is both alarming and plausible.