Fertility rate new low at 1.44 - 2% drop 2022-2023

[MidnightPatrol]

Via the BBC

Women in England and Wales had an average of 1.44 children between 2022 and 2023, the lowest rate on record.

Only 591,072 babies were born in 2023, fewer than in any year since 1977 and a fall of more than 14,000 on the previous year, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed.

The average age of new mums and dads has increased to 33.8 for fathers and 30.9 for mothers.

Research suggests millennials, born up to the mid-1990s, are not having children because of financial pressures, because they don't feel ready or haven't found the right partner.

While the number of births fell to a record low last year, the number of women of child-bearing age was at its highest ever at 12 million.

This meant the total fertility rate in 2023 was the lowest recorded since 1938.

Not a surprise by any means

Great news for the environment, bad news for the economy. Can't say I'm surprised, it's tough being a parent these days.

It’s falling faster than any of the predictions which isn’t good as governments have done little planning for the huge shift in demographics.

Loads of posters will say it’s great but the economic ramifications are huge.

Not a surprise given the cost of childcare, even with govt support !

To offer a child a secure family home, buying is really the only way unless you are lucky enough to have secure social housing or a high earning spouse. To buy a house normally takes two salaries.

Women can't work full time, pay PAYE, pay a mortgage, and pay childcare for more than one child. In most cases it just doesn't work.

I have one child, and I waited until my 40s to have him. Waited until my mortgage was under control. My siblings all have one each. My dm had six children. My paternal grandmother had six.

Don't blame them.

Also worth pointing out, I was fired first morning back after maternity leave. My IT company employer had given my team, my role, my department to the sales director's wife! Blatantly discriminatory, but there was no legal aid to help me pursue them for unfair dismissal.

It was only because I had family legal cover via my house insurance that I was able to force them to pay me damages. A quarter of new mothers are discriminated against and many have no recourse. Check with Pregnant then Screwed.

If the govt wants women to have larger families, they need to completely rethink their attitude to mothers.

There a reason people weren't having babies in 1938 and it's the same reason as right now 😓

It’s not just financial reasons. There is less expectation of women to settle down and churn out babies. Many want to wait (or even not have them at all) until they do things they might not want to do with children (travel, further education, establish career, casually date). I did, it wasn’t because of financial reasons, same with most of my friends and the people I work with who are late 20s/early 30s.

I don’t think it’s a huge issue, the world fertility rates aren’t drastically declining, so the shortfall can be made up through immigration.

Birth rate, not fertility rate, no?

Yes surely it's a good thing? We are a massively population dense island?
Don't we need some balance redressed? How do other much smaller countries cope, you drive to the eu and my goodness this side is absolutely hell.
As soon as you hit French, Belgium, Netherlands Germany the roads ate a dream as in far less hectic and crowded.

The one other thing to consider is the workforce environment when the dc born today are entering it.

AI and tech may have reduced jobs by a fair whack and it would be pretty bad to have loads of students entering the workforce without work to do. It'd be good if the reduction matches the rate of decline in need

Is this broken down into the number of children born to foreign or British born women ? Is there a variance between the two ?

Proportion of births to non-UK-born mothers
In 2022, 58% of births in London were to mothers who had been born outside the UK

BUT you have to consider London's population:
About 62% of London's population is made up of UK-born residents, while 41% were born outside of the UK.

Can't find info for outside London

Ah. Here:
Total fertility rate (TFR)
The TFR for UK-born women in 2021 was 1.54 children per woman, while the TFR for non-UK-born women was 2.03 children per woman

The one other thing to consider is the workforce environment when the dc born today are entering it.
AI and tech may have reduced jobs by a fair whack and it would be pretty bad to have loads of students entering the workforce without work to do. It'd be good if the reduction matches the rate of decline in need

We already have a skills shortage so I don’t think AI is going to have a huge impact in the next few yrs, it may change in decades. The economic ramifications are here now.

The dc born now will take a couple of decades to be in the workforce

The thing is, those born outside the UK have more children but not many more and even that rate is dropping.

Yes surely it's a good thing? We are a massively population dense island?
Don't we need some balance redressed?

The balance readdress would involve a wider spread across ages….

I don’t think it’s a huge issue, the world fertility rates aren’t drastically declining, so the shortfall can be made up through immigration.

They are dropping in most of the West so those immigrants will be fought over & countries will start to compete with each other, schemes like Portugals lower tax for under 35s. Plus their own countries will become more prosperous so there will be more incentive to stay. And of course immigration is not the most popular policy.

The dc born now will take a couple of decades to be in the workforce

My point was the ageing population is here now, birth rates have been declining for years. We already have more over 65s than under 15s. Our taxes are only ever going one way as the model is no longer sustainable.

It’s obviously to do with the economic factors including childcare etc. When I was 24, I wanted three children but hadn’t met anyone. I’m now 30 and have met someone, but we can’t afford a 1500 mortgage plus 1500 childcare for us both to work full time and it’s not viable for one of us to stay home either. it’s very unlikely given my age now I’ll be able to have more than 1.

Back in 1994, when I was born and throughout my childhood (early 2000’s) you could just about have one parent stay at home.

I also worry about the implications of having a child with autism or disabilities, is seem so much more commonly now and I know it’s probably wider reported on but it’s a genuine worry within my friendship group of how we would cope.