When Booking a hotel - do you always choose the Flex option or are you more risk averse and choose the cheapest option? (difference of opinion with OH!)

[RoadToRhodes]

Just booking a hotel for half-term, 4 weeks to go, family of 4 (kids 15,17), and these are the prices

Flex - fully refundable, free cancellation up to 1pm on day of arrival- £59
Semi-flex -fully refundable, free cancellation up to 3 days before arrival - £53
Standard - non-refundable - £42

I want to book the cheapest option (Standard) as it will save £17 off the most expensive option.
My OH wants to book the most expensive option (Flex) as 'you never know what might happen' .

My argument is that we've booked this type of night away dozens of times over the years and only once (that I recall) had to cancel due to illness.
As we are saving almost a third, unless we are cancelling every third booking, it's worth the risk of buying the cheapest room.
Likewise with the Semi-flex, it's 20% more expensive so unless we're cancelling 1 out of every 5 bookings, it's also worth the risk of buying the cheapest room.

What would you book in this situation?
Bit more info, hotel is 1.5 hrs drive away, nobody with any illness worries etc.

Personally, for the sake of £17, I would choose the option to be able to cancel. I like to keep my options open until the very last minute though so it suits me.

If you can’t go can you cancel and recover your money? I tend to book wirh cancellation. It’d not be the first holiday I’ve to cancel and I’d not like to lose money

At premier inn I was booking standard for a long time as you were able to change the dates of the stay. I dont know if you still can, haven't stayed in a while

Always the Flex. I don’t think it’s worth the risk.

I’d choose the cheapest option. As you say you’re unlikely to cancel.

I only choose the flexible option if I think there is a good chance I’ll have to cancel or amend the booking.

I book the cheapest. Only once was it a mistake and I had to pay a tenner to change the date.

I never book the flex. For £42 I’d take the loss. But I’ve never had to so I guess that’s why I don’t book the flex. Maybe if I’d been stung I’d be more risk averse.

Standard every time for 1 night not that far in advance - it’s unlikely we wouldn’t go and if something did happen then I’d just suck up the cost.
But if it was for a longer stay and more money I’d probably go flex

However I book a lot on booking.com where you don’t pay till arrival and then I make absolute sure to cancel within the time frame.

That is cheap! Tbh I'm risk averse and usually pay extra for flexibility.

For that price I would book the standard option. But if it's more I usually go flexible- since covid I have definitely become more risk averse!
Actually had this exact discussion with DH this week, booking a hotel for Christmas holidays, he booked the non refundable option after I said book the flexible one, his argument is booking flexible is £50 down the drain... my argument is if we can't go it's £400 down the drain!

At that price I'd book the standard.

Risk is usually calculated on impact (impact of not being able to go is you lose the money - so how much is it and can you afford to lose it?) Vs likelihood (so how likely are you to cancel).

So obviously the higher the booking cost and the higher the likelihood you'll cancel, the more likely I'd be to get the flex option.

Low chance you'd cancel, low booking cost, no way I'm getting the flex option.

Since COVID I only book hotels that are cancellable and 100% refundable up to the day of arrival.

but in my example the ratio is not 8/1, it's more like 3/1.
I'm willing to risk £42 to save £17 because over the long term based on previous trends, we will save >25%

totally agree

£42 option.

How many times have you had to cancel at the last minute?

You only have to turn up for your bookings two and a half times to make it cheaper to simply write off not being able to get there.

So unless your no show rate is once every three hotel stays it's a false economy to go for the flexible option.

Personally I don't get why people book the flexible option unless it's for business and there's a reasonable chance of cancellation.

It's with you and would book the cheapest. If I have to occasionally cancel for unforeseen reasons I have probably still spent less in total by always choosing the cheapest rate.

I'd book the cheapest in that scenario.

We tend to always go cheapest. We must have stayed in over a hundred hotels as we basically lived in them for a year abroad plus we take multiple trips a year, never lost money yet.

I always book flex. I like to cover all bases.

I'm with you, OP - unless it was a much much more expensive thing that had more ways it could go wrong/need to be cancelled (like an international hotel stay booked very far in advance)