Predicting GCSE Grades in Year 7

[Loveangelmusicbaby2]

DD is coming to the end of year 7 and the school have sent a report that has predicted GCSE grades (they also sent these at Christmas as a mid year report). Does anyone else have this at their schools and does anyone have any experience of whether they are accurate? It seems very early to be predicting these grades and I'd rather have information on strengths/areas to work on than just a predicted grade. Things have certainly changed since I was at school 20 odd years ago!

Our school does this, and if they are predicted a 4/5, they are very happy for them to stay there. Those children become an easy government tick box (% over grade 4/5 stats)

It is the national average, calculated by a universal formula. Obviously any individual child could perform well above or below the average

This has been done for years, pretty much based on SATs results.

Yeah. Based on sats results DD should be getting a 9 for everything. It's ridiculous and so stressful for them.

It's normal but anything can happen in that time but I suppose they need a way to monitor results somehow.

yes, children are often better off getting lower sats results

The government expect that children make a certain amount of progress between Yr6 and Yr11.
Schools are graded on it.
Parents pick schools based on the Progress scores.

Do the numbers have to exist

All school do this, as an indicator, in this subject, at this ability, basically as things stand right now, predicted GCSE grade in music would be a 6. Say.

It doesn't really mean much just an indicator that your child might have a leaning towards something.

Grade predictions go up and down each report.

You don't really get much communication with secondary schools like primary.

If you are concerned asked to speak to the subject teacher or send an email.

But really it's just a year 7 report. Our eldest had a shocking one in year 7, but he had spent a lot of that in lockdown, even so, he is now year 10 just finishing his end of year exams. These are the only ones he has really done work for. So we shall see.

They are of course just a prediction and totally changeable. It might mean a lot more work in some subjects. She has plenty of time.

Ours did, I think it's fairly normal and absolutely pointless.

She was predicted 7s across the board, even for subjects she never had before.

GCSEs were then a mix of 8-4.

And don't start me on assesssments in October based on work they haven't even covered yet.

A target grade, generated by SATS results and a generic formula, can be really quite different from a forecast grade (in either direction!)

I don't think target grades are overly helpful to children, but they are what the school ultimately gets judged on.

Forecast grades are more useful. In Year 7, I would read it as a rough indication as to where your child lies within their cohort - are they excelling, doing quite well, keeping up with the basics, or struggling even to access the content.

The forecast in and of itself doesn't put any limitations on your child - it's just a number on a piece of paper. We find it's often important to start managing parental expectations early on, though!

Except that this often leads to children being "banked" at their lower targets and not pushed on because the school need to concentrate on the kids who are off-target.

OP It might be that those target grades are ones derived from their KS2 results and so are where your child needs to attain in order to make the "correct" amount of progress during secondary school. If so, the school hasn't set them and are just letting you know so you can see how on or off track your child is. However, they could be the school's own targets based on how they've seen students with your child's attainment profile progress in the past. Worth asking to see which it is.

My son did very well in his SATS, which meant that his target grades for all subjects in secondary were very high based on his results in year 6 English and maths. I was " invited " in at the end of year 7 to discuss the subjects where he was not meeting targets. I had to explain that, given he was autistic and with dyspraxia, it would be impossible for him to achieve top grades in art, PE and music ( as the latter was based on a group activity he struggled with!) Every year he was below target in these subjects, every year I was asked in to explain why!

As others have said these are based on SATS results and are pretty meaningless. Doesn't her report have anything else? My DC's year 7 report has the target grade, a progress marker of how close they are to the target grade, an effort marker, some areas for improvement and an overall written comment.

@spanieleyes I have exactly the same issue. It's pretty frustrating for my DS, and I have to keen reminding him that it doesn't matter that he is behind expected grades in performing arts simply because he did well in a maths and English test at primary school.

My child was given high target grades in year 7 (too high really) and school told me that they are all assessed at the start of year 7 using MidYis. The score they achieve generates a prediction of what other kids went on to achieve in year 11. Sats are based on what they’ve been taught, MidYis or CAT scores are based on their potential.

The report only has the predicted GCSE and an effort grade - bronze, silver or gold. A written comment would have been very useful!

as someone who just finished GCSE that sounds ridiculous. I failed biology and chemistry in year 9 and got a 9 and a 7 respectively. Reports from Y10 onwards gradually more accurate but before then I'd focus on the teacher's comments and just %