What will happen to restaurants / cafes

[LaCouleurDeMonCiel]

Pre Covid / COL increase we would eat out as a family 1-2 a week. Eating out would often be spontaneous, places like Bills, Rosas Thai, pizzeria, etc. when we passed one while shopping or because we didn’t fancy cooking.

Now we have stopped the spontaneous meals because the prices are ridiculous. We still go out when we want to go to a specific restaurant or celebrate something but we don’t visit the casual low/mid range places because £100+ is too expensive for a quick ‘not that special’ meal.

Are we the only ones?
Will we see a change in the type of restaurants on the high streets? High end restaurants + cheap fast food ones but nothing in between?

On takeaways/casual restaurants, my local Asian place told me they didn't make any money last year; just about covered outgoings but that was all. That's despite them having had to hike the prices so now it's about £15 for things like a noodle soup with salmon that used to be £10–£11.

And a Turkish place, also local, where I've long been getting chicken shish in a box (loads of chicken, bread, salad, pickled chillis, hummus), used to charge £15, then it crept to £18 and now it's £24. They're very apologetic but say they don't have any choice if they're not to actively make a loss.

In both cases it's cost of ingredients and utilities that's hammering them.
It's a real pity. They're both lovely places, run by hospitable, friendly families, been there for years. I've been a very regular customer for a long time (the owner of the Asian place has been known to bring me back presents when she's been to visit family in China!) but I've had to cut right back on ordering from them. And although I'm not a very high earner, I wouldn't consider myself a low earner as such either.

The difficulty is that even if you can afford it, do you really want yo pay £10 for a cup of juice?! I know I don’t!

The difficulty is that even if you can afford it, do you really want yo pay £10 for a cup of juice?! I know I don’t!
lots do actually , all branches I go to or pass by are always packed , no matter what time of the day it is.
specialty places like Gail , Ole and steen , or similar independent places , <think Nordic or japandi Cafes and restaurants >are generally very popular ,
There is a general shift in people’s preferences ,
younger people are more health focused and would go to brunches or lunch than go out to clubs or bars.

Cut down massively on eating out and if we go it's planned. It's not the price increase that so much bothers me it's the mediocre food.

However here in Plymouth there is a Deliveroo cyclist in the street almost at all times. We live in a high student area. I have no idea how they afford it.

One thing the hikes have made me do is learn how to cook the things I love eating at home. With sone success.

Cafes are charging more money now for smaller portions and I think this is what's going to kill trade. I tend to take my dd out quite a lot for lunch or a milkshake and cake but it's getting ridiculously expensive. I can't continue to justify £4 for a tiny cake or a small drink. Or £100 for mediocre food in a chain restaurant if 3 of us go out for lunch.
I know that costs have gone up for restaurants, which is why they put up prices but when it stops being worth it for people to eat out, people will just stop going and ultimately the business won't survive.

But the business won't survive if it doesn't increase it's prices to cover it's increased costs (minimum wage increases, utilities trebled, food prices up, etc). They're in a lose-lose situation. They can't operate at a loss.

Yes, it's a horrible circle. Dont know what the way out is.
I just know that I used to go out for special occasions to a nice local hotel and last time I went, I noticed they'd reduced their portions so the bread they used to give as part of the appetiser is now a chargeable side, the main came with no vegetables - these were also now a chargeable side. But the price is higher than it used to be. If I'm ordering a steak for dinner at £30 I think it should come with some veg!
So now I'm inclined to go somewhere else for special occasion meals out. I know why the restaurant is doing it, but customers just won't absorb those costs when everything else is going up for us too.

I can think of a few cafes around here that charge a little more than average but are busy.
For me it's in paying attention to detail. Nice decor, good service, menu offering something a little different without being weird. Little generosities like putting out a nice chutney with a cheese scone instead of just butter, good hot and cold alternatives to coffee, gluten free options where bread is served.

We have cut down too as there aren't so many good deals going round....and i can't afford the deals they do have!

We used to eat out twice a week. Now generally it’s once on payday and a mid-month fish and chip tea. We share a large one between us so it costs around a tenner.

I have news for you, those shops you name are in well-off areas. Surely you know this?

My area is not well off at all but coffee shops are generally well attended. I only go to one local restaurant twice a year and they seem busy too.

Good quality, value for money and decently staffed places seem very busy round here - went out on Tuesday and the pub we went to has a superb menu but very reasonably priced - and the place was heaving.

In a row of six restaurants by our local cinema, only one remains. The rest are just sitting abandoned.

If we spend 80-100 on a meal out, I can't help but automatically think how much food I could have got in from the supermarket for that amount and just how many meals I could make.
I've been much more adventurous cooking now and we tend to eat out much much less than we used to.
Paying £16 for a pasta dish in an Italian restaurant when I know how much pasta costs just doesn't seem worth it anymore.

I am sure we do not have a single Gails, Ole or Steen in the city I live in. I have only seen those in London and the south.
If you live in a wealthy area things will still look fine. Its everywhere else where cafes and restaurants will suffer.

This is very true.
It does feel like throwing money away when I eat out. I never used to feel like this, so something has changed. I mostly eat out now so I can spend quality time with dh - if we're at home we just scroll through our phones or surf Netflix.

We've definitely cut back on eating out as a family; previously we'd eat out if we were out for the day but given the cost for a family of 4 I'm much more inclined to take a packed lunch. DD1 can be quite a light eater and it's actively painful to watch her pick at the food she's chosen when it's cost £8+, and I know she'll be hungry an hour later. The kids picnic boxes in museums etc are the worst - £6 for a cheese sandwich, a juice carton and a packet of pom-bears, they only ever eat the snacks, and you're just paying for the convenience of not having to think about bringing your own food with you.

I still really like Bills, but when we went for lunch in half term it was £60 for 2 adult mains, 2 kids meals, and 2 soft drinks, plus when you pay on the app it's added a service charge then it asks if you want to pay a 10% tip on top of that!

You can make nicer quick picnic lunches for yourself. But even a cheese sandwich takes minutes to make.

I have reached a stage where I'm pretty organised with taking lunches to work and in days out. My philosophy now is £20 will get me a mediocre cafe dinner for one but a shed load more posh cheese and olives and all that kind of thing from the supermarket 🐷

It's a mystery to me how they can afford it,

@rookiemere so in their 20's, no kids, decent incomes and possibly staying at home to save for deposits or in a cheaper house share rather than a high mortgage.

Could well have more extra disposable cash for eating out than a middle aged couple with 2 kids, house car childcare to pay for.

Maybe the mistake they did was to simultaneously increase the price and decrease the portion size (or quality).

I had a really nice lunch at chain restaurant in a lovely location today. The food was very nice, we had a soft drink each too and with a tip we paid £24, I thought this was reasonable.

Maybe there was no time to phase them in over a longer period? The energy price hikes were really quick and caught out lots of cafes/bakeries who were shocked when gas/electric bills doubled or trebled. Even moreso if they were paying monthly and there was a huge back dated bill.

One of my clients is a tiny village bakery/pie shop. Their gas/electric went from £300/£400 per month up to £1500 in one go last year. If they hadn't increased prices by a fair lump at the same time, they'd have gone under.

To be fair to the post you are answering to, I have Ole&Stein, Gails, Joe&the juice within walking distance.
It isn’t just a matter of can/can’t afford it but also a matter of do we want to spend our money this way IYSWIM. Mediocre meal and no ambiance for 4 times the price of cooking it at home, no thank you. One 3£ Ole&Stein cake that tastes like heaven, this I continue to buy as a treat sometimes.