What jobs will never be taken by AI?

[RubyRubyRubyRubay]

So, my son is about to take his GCSE options and although I've been getting him to think of a trade he might like, he really wants to go to uni.

I can think of lots of trades that will be difficult for AI to totally take over:
painting
plumbing
roofing
building
cooking
sports coach

. . . but what about jobs you need a degree for?

I'm struggling to think of any that AI won't eventually decimate.

Any ideas out there?

As an accountant for 40 years, I've often heard the warning of "your job will disappear". First it was the advent of the desktop computer and Sage software. Then it was Indian "wageslaves" on pennies per hour. Then it was the internet. Now it's AI. Guess what? I'm busier than ever!

The thing is, that AI can't possibly know whether your Amazon purchases are something to re-sell, something to repair your office, something to repair a computer, a new piece of office equipment, something to clean your office, or something personal that's nothing to do with your business! Yes, even today, the latest software can identify payments to Amazon (from live bank feeds), but can't possibly do better than second guess why you've bought it and therefore what category of expense it should be allocated to nor the tax relief. Yes, maybe the next iteration of live bank feeds could include a code to identify whether the item is a computer or a packet of loo rolls, but even then, it can't know whether you're going to sell the computer or use it, and whether it's an extra computer (business growth) or a replacement computer.

Don't get me wrong, computers have revolutionised the accountancy profession, but they're a tool, not a replacement. Yes, lots of tasks can be automated, after all, we don't have rooms full of ledger clerks writing in pen anymore, but software and AI is nowhere near replacing humans when it comes to strategic business advice, sensible forecasting, tax planning, etc. It "May" come in a few decades time, but for now, I think qualified/skilled accountants have nothing to worry about. It's a different story for book-keepers and data entry clerks as their job is already in the balance and could well disappear within a few years as automatic feeds/links between businesses improve.

I can’t see teaching being replaced. Ai is definitely making the job easier - I use it to write lesson plans and emails to parents. But at least in primary and secondary school I can’t see an AI teacher in front of the class.

jobs I think will be replaced:
-delivery drivers (Uber, DoorDash ect)
-long haul truck drivers
-pharmacist
-newsreader
-many journalists
-surgeon
-lawyer especially corporate
-travel agents
-checkout operators

Steeplejacks look fairly safe to me.

There is already AI surgery being developed and used.

I think nurses will last longer than doctors as a job. Why employ a medic to diagnose when a computer can do it more accurately?

Where are the steeples that they jack nowadays? Telecom masts perhaps? But AI will assemble these and fly them out in parts under a drone and put them into place on the edge of a settlement after another drone has evaluated and founded the underlying land.

This is a good report www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/05/future-of-jobs-in-the-age-of-ai-sustainability-and-deglobalization/

It's the human skills like curiosity, creativity and critical thinking that will remain key. People who can empathise, lead and inspire will always be in demand.

Broadly speaking I agree with this.

I have friends who work at a software company and for a long time they didn't have any internal accountants at all. They set their accounting software up, working with an accounting firm, and then set up "edge cases" where instead of someone manually going through and checking everything, the computer just decided where it wasn't certain (i.e. edge cases) and then popped up asking someone to confirm one way or the other.

You can do quite a lot of that just using a decent PO system really.

I definitely think a lot of the day to day stuff will be able to be automated over the coming years, but I think that can be a catastrophe or an opportunity depending on the type of person you are.

It's the world's second oldest profession (writing was invented to facilitate keeping accounts) and while the job will change I don't think it will vanish.

I definitely agree re bookkeepers being the first hit, and I think we will see a reduction in the number of accountants potentially - but those who specialise in value add and the weird and wonderful will do well out of this.

My job involves going and talking to various members of the business, coaxing information out of them in a way that is helpful, building a picture of what they do and then assessing the implications of that against the accounting standards. A computer will be pretty good at finding the relevant parts of the standards but I don't see it learning how to find out that actually what Jane does is "sort of X and sort of Y but then has elements of Z and interacts with Q in this way" and then interpreting the accounting standards against that.

The last accounting paper I wrote had over 27 different judgements in, each of which could have been argued multiple ways.

I'm a sign language interpreter. The profession is going through changes but is immune to threat from AI unlike spoken languages. Family member is a French/English translator and his work has changed drastically in the last few years alone. This won't happen with sign language interpreting.

British sign language can also be studied as an option at GCSE level now.

People of the future need to be good at 3 things

1. Having an imagination and problem solving
2. Managing and leading (whether that is people, leading on an idea or leading other people)
3. An understanding of computers and robotics

The topic you choose to study now probably doesn’t matter too much - but if AI is taking over then going down this route could be a safer option, but ideally something that allows exploration with tech to some degree.

We’ve all had to embed tech in our careers along the way and we stay ontop by solving whatever problem comes our way - because AI will come with lots of problems between now and when it’s really ready and it needs people to solve them.

Im personally keen for my DD to keep subjects that challenge her critical thinking and allows her to build and that she loves - as naturally you will excel in that if you are curious enough about it.

OP you can't imagine a robot painting a house? That's the exact example used by Stuart Russell in his excellent Reith Lecture when explaining, by way of analogy, how technology replaces human tasks and influences productivity, demand, etc. When asked what types of jobs are "AI-proof" he pointed to jobs that require true empathy, such as psychologists and therapists.

IMO art could never be totally machine-led.

Undertaker
Eye doctor
Designers

I really recommend reading “The Coming Wave” by Mustafa Suleyman.

Listen to Reid Hoffman’s “Possible” podcast.

For an intro to both men, you can listen to them being interviewed (separately) on the “Leading” podcast with Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart.

I'm going to watch this tonight, even though it's likely to reveal things I'd rather not know 🫣

I do hope it can take over some care jobs. It's such an understaffed industry and rightly no one wants to do it for such low pay. Plus an ever increasing elderly and unwell population.

Funeral Director

Espionage, well parts of it, there will always be a need for human Agents

More chilling recommendations - I'll need to brace myself to tackle these I've seen Mustafa Suleyman involved in AI debates - it's compelling but terrifying (to me anyway!).

My biggest fear is an AI implant in the humans brain that compels them to do a million tasks that the real human would never autonomously chose. Like a human enslaved by a microchip deep in the brain that you can't remove 😱

I might encourage my son to study 'ethics' to be a counter voice to the possible inhumanity of it all.

(edited for multiple typo's - AI would solve that!)

I keep seeing my job as one of the main ones that will be replaced by AI. Great 👍.

I think I'll go for the dystopian recommendations first then save Reid Hoffman’s “Possible” to cheer me up afterwards

Trades, and anything with a physical element to it too.

I think anyone whose job is computer/phone based will be in trouble.

Oh no. What line of work are you in if you don't mind revealing?

Undertakers.

Recession proof and AI proof to an extent (though there are virtual graveyards out there).

Surgery is already coming under AI research.

As someone else has said, probably the lower paid jobs after that. Has anyone read "mostly harmless" by Douglas Adams where the phone cleaning people are deemed useless?

I bought that book 2 months ago and am afraid to read it!

Regarding jobs, I think part of most jobs will be replaceable with AI, but I don’t like the idea that basic skills might be lost.

(The coming wave book)